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Particularly good material in the "Ask Bill" area at Bill James Online ... I think the last few weeks' worth are public reading. We sent a question, as we do about once a month or so:
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A little followup ... Derek Jeter, through age 35:
- Had a BABIP of .360, higher than Ichiro's .357 during the '00's
- Despite being right-handed
- Despite NOT being a power hitter
- Over the span of 6,291 outs
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Rod Carew, from 1969 to 1983, that's age 37:
- Had a BABIP of .366
- Despite NOT hitting the ball nearly as hard as the David Ortizes of the world
Their line drive rates are fine, of course, but:
- Not enough to account for the BABIP all by themselves, and
- The ability to line the ball AT a particular wedge in the infield is part of the discussion here
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So, a couple of sabermetric thoughts.
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Can you imagine what Ichiro's batting average would have been, in a favorable park. The year he hit .372, I'll bet you dollars to day-old donuts that there is SOME park in which he'd have hit .400.
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We should be alert to the idea that, for players with Plus-Plus-Plus "80" HIT ability, that their batting averages and BABIP are going to transcend the raw Fangraphs batted ball data. Some guys can hit 'em where they ain't. But man! You have to be gooo-ooo-oood.
It ain't like you're going to teach that. Such a player is going to be drafted like in the top 5 of the college draft anyway.
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Run-of-the-mill sabermetricians, as a group, need to be more aware of the exceptions to the generalizations.
Exceptions make dogmatic sabers very uncomfortable, but .... there are certainly exceptions. We watched one of them for ten years. That should have been enough.
This is no small point. Much of the violent undertone, in current baseball analysis, pivots around this issue.
(Another exception, by the way, is the #5 starting pitcher for the 2014 Mariners. He has the ability to throw fly balls without allowing homers, because he so skillfully works the top of the strike zone.)
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The hitter who has the potential to do this, on the current Seattle ball club, is Dustin Ackley. I'm quite sure that, the moment Boras takes Ackley's sorry keister elsewhere, that Ackley will jell and hit .364 some place.
Robinson Cano is a tremendous hitter. He appears to have no interest, though, in hitting 'em where they ain't. He battles the pitcher, not the fielders. The pitcher throws a slow curve and misses inside, Robby holds up, drags the bat, and serves it down the RF line ... as a reaction to the pitcher, not as a reaction to the outfield.
I think Edgar was the same as Robby. (But Ichiro, and Carew, and Jeter, defeat both the pitcher's attack AND the fielders' positioning.)
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Personally I think that The Ichiro Riddle is solved, four years on. Mostly, he lost a slight tic of his reflexes, and then he couldn't hit 'em where they ain't.
For what it's worth, Ichiro is on pace for about 3 WAR this year, at age forty. Hargrove was right, although off on his timeline a tadbit: in his retirement years, Ichiro is now a championship #4 outfielder.
BABVA,
Dr D
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