Guillen number being simply --- > the number of baseball runs that score because of home runs. The graph moves from post-WWII to present.
Has it seemed to you like there's more dead time in baseball? What % of the time is the baseball rolling around in fair play? Are we reduced to hoping for a set of four pickoff throws to 1B as the highlight of the 8:00-9:00 hour?
No, we're kidding. "Three True Outcomes" (homer, strikeout, walk, which are "pure" tests of pitcher vs hitter) are fine by Dr. D. They'd better be, though, because ice cream is fine but if they're stuffing it into you by the gallon you'd better have your favorite flavor.
Jeff Sullivan posted a set of ground-level observations about rising homers. Exec Sum being:
√ The commish was mad about a "mere" 4.07 runs per game in 2014. (Tell that to Honus Wagner's cigarette card.)
√ "Conveniently" offense surged way back up starting in 2015 ... but purely because of home runs.
√ HR's are way up.
√ OBP is still falling way down, if you neutralize those ::coughjuicedballcough:: homers.
√ 2 runs per game are now scored on home run plays, compared to only 2.7 runs in other ways.
√ The San Francisco Giants are an outlier this year: they score very few of their runs on homers.
√ (comments section) only 1 of the top 10 homer-heavy teams is in a playoff spot, that being a WC.
Minor thing: I read this article right before the M's beat the Yankees 2-1 based on solo homers by Zuumball and Alonso. That is certainly a viable way to win pitchers' duels, just sitting around waiting for the homer. Earl loved this kind of baseball. You better, too, the way things are going. Earl thought he figured out something nobody else had figured out, that the Red Color Group was better than the Blues. He never could understand why baseball people didn't "get" the value of a homer.
Certainly Pete Carroll does. His whole roster is based around winning the 20+ yard plays. NBA is all about three-pointers. I wonder how much Game Theory should be adjusted (even more) towards the haymaker blow in every sport.
Major thing: So it's odd that the playoff teams (this year) are bucking industry trend; water takes the path of least resistance but the playoff teams ain't doing that. Was the Royal Way right or wrong? :- ) The Mariners are 3rd from last in homers, but guess who's last: the Red Sox. Houston's first ... you can win with any style, especially for one season. Point is, your local nine is playing for singles and doubles. Maybe that will hold up well in pressure baseball.
I don't know where to put this, so I put it here: the M's offense right now consists of Nelson Cruz at 150 and ten average-good hitters at 95-115.