.
There is an archived Bill James article in which he smiles at "quadrangular" players. Who do you know? who has the SAME amount of:
- Walks
- Strikeouts
- RBI
- Runs Scored
You don't know anybody like that, is 'cause the saberdogs (thanks Matty!) have forbidden you from thinking about runs in baseball. Created runs that are calculated by an algebraic formula, sure -- but actual runs like RBI, Runs, ERA, runs anything -- those are out of bounds. Anyway, James does think about runs in baseball.
If you have a guy with 70 BB and 70 K, we already knew that we loved that. But had it occurred to you that if a ballplayer has 90 R, and 90 RBI, he can either hit cleanup or lead off?
In fact you can draw a "quadrangle" representing any good player. Bill points out that you cannot draw a quadrangle that is 30', 17', 15', and 105' on a side. Those were Tommy Agee's numbers in 1968. If you think about it, you'll realize that of course the 105 side measures the strikeouts. That ain't good. The most "undrawable" (Dr. D's term) players ever include Cito Gaston, the dude who used to manage the Blue Jays. He had seasons like 20-25-30-115. Yowch.
Speaking of hitting coaches, which Gaston was originally, Dr. D knows of an ex-Mariner whose career quad sides measure 1219 x 1261 x 1283 x 1202. INCREDIBLE! And now you see how these squares turn out to be guys you like?
....
Jose Bautista had an epic-ally "square" season in 2014 with numbers of 101, 103, 104, 96. (Does it matter which number goes with each category? Nada.) Bill lays us out a table of very square, very excellent players:
.
|
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
R
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
Score
|
|
Jimmy
|
Wynn
|
1974
|
104
|
108
|
108
|
104
|
.978
|
|
Dolph
|
Camilli
|
1939
|
105
|
104
|
110
|
107
|
.975
|
|
Jose
|
Bautista
|
2014
|
101
|
103
|
104
|
96
|
.965
|
|
Mike
|
Schmidt
|
1979
|
109
|
114
|
120
|
115
|
.961
|
|
Mark
|
McGwire
|
1996
|
104
|
113
|
116
|
112
|
.954
|
|
Ron
|
Santo
|
1967
|
107
|
98
|
96
|
103
|
.951
|
|
Rafael
|
Palmeiro
|
2002
|
99
|
105
|
104
|
94
|
.950
|
|
Eddie
|
Mathews
|
1955
|
108
|
101
|
109
|
98
|
.949
|
|
Jason
|
Giambi
|
2002
|
120
|
122
|
109
|
112
|
.946
|
|
Duke
|
Snider
|
1956
|
112
|
101
|
99
|
101
|
.943
|
|
David
|
Ortiz
|
2007
|
116
|
117
|
111
|
103
|
.943
|
.
What do they have in common? James goes down the list and it suddenly hits him; the "square" player lists are heavily laced with his favorite players. He didn't realize that he liked these players for this reason, until he did the study. Then it dawned on him that he likes "basketball triple-doubles in baseball terms." (My phrase again.) He was surprised to learn that favorite Royals players from his childhood, like Norm Seibern and later Darrell Porter, were on the lists.
....
Who are the Squarest Mariners and the most weirdly Quadrangular?
Mike Zunino just had a 28-28-21-132 season. HEH! Nowhere near being able to draw his EYE, runs, and RBI diagram. Hey Matt: if Zuumball had twice the R, RBI, and BB, could you draw the quadrangle then?
... it suddenly hits you: that season is worse than Cito Gaston's most quadrangular most undrawable season. Zunino may have just had one of the most catastrophically un-square seasons of any player who ever lived.
The year before, 2014, he was 51-60 for runs and RBI, along with 17-158 (!!) in EYE ratio. Chalk up one more for EYE-ratio short term forecasting. Mikey was headed down, not up.
.
Robinson Cano is superbly square for his career:
- 1,000 runs, give or take -42
- 1,000 RBI, give or take -17
- 454 walks
- 864 strikeouts
And last year he was good too: 82-79 with a 43:107 EYE ratio. In the second half, when he reverted to Classic D.R. Form, he was 46-49-26-43.
.
Kyle Seager last year was 85-74 with a 54:98 EYE. Pret-tay. And Kyle is getting subtly more square with each passing season.
.
R.I.P. Brad Miller was not square, with only 40-odd runs and 40-odd RBI in 144 games. He's got crazy legs and the ball jumps off his bat :- ) but by the James My Kinda Player metric, he don' look too good.
Boog Powell, when he went to AAA, was 22-18 with a 32:41 EYE in one-third of a season. That's on pace* to be a "favorite little contributor," a guy who might get 60 runs and 60 RBI with 40 BB and 70 strikeouts some day. Edit to add, probably not the RBI, huh.
Dexter Fowler ain't square; he's got 550 runs versus 300 RBI lifetime, plus or minus. But they tell us on the MLB Network that the M's don't want a square player this offseason. They want table-setters. Friendly little reminder that insights do not equal absolutes or simplifications. They're just insights.
.
Here is the M's b-ref card. Plot spoiler: Seth Smith kewl, Mark Trumbo not so much. Ketel Marte, you'd probably rather have him hit #1 or #9 than have him hit #4. But Seager, Cano, Cruz, Seth Smith -- you could use them to score runs, or to knock 'em in. Either way they'll give you a pro at-bat.
Enjoy,
Dr D
.
Edgar photo: Jeff Gross, Getty
