BJOL 'Combined Use Score' and Chris Capuano
Bad Intentions, dept.

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Garrett Richards is the New Ed Walsh, dept.

Right on cue, Bill gives us a long, thoughtful article about "swing men."  The subtitle there is as the section header above.

If it was a little before your time ... Mo' Dawg and I enjoyed watching Big Ed's finest season in 1908.  He started 49 games, relieved in another 17 games, and won 40 games with a 1+ ERA.  He also led the league in cellar dungeons.

You might have noticed that, nowadays, it's a little more rare to see an excellent starting pitcher serve a "dual use" role as a swingman starter/reliever.  How rare, exactly?  James developed a simple system for measuring it.  He wanted to know, "To what extent have big league managers moved away from the dual use pitcher?"

The answer is, "They have almost completely abandoned the practice."  That's because if a pitcher is good at starting, industry dogma tells you to pitch him every five days and leave him the deuce alone.

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Albert Einstein "Never Stopped Asking the Questions of a Child," dept.

But let's suppose you did have a really good relief pitcher who, when he was called on for 6-10 starts, did a nice job of that too?  How valuable would it be?

It's tough to tell.  It hardly ever happens any more.  Applying his "Combined Use Scores" to teams and leagues, BJOL found that around 1960 the practice of using "swing men" started dropping fast (partly in response to Whitey Ford's demand to be used on a regular schedule, rather than having to square off against everybody's ace).

By 1970, swing men were used less than half as much as they were in 1960.  By 1985 it was down to a fraction of its 1970 levels, and by 2004 the "CUS" scores were very low.  

But here's the thing there, too ... since 1990 when you find interesting "swing men" like:

  • 1992 Curt Schilling, 26 starts, 16 reliefs ... 14-11 with a 2.35 ERA
  • 2003 Johan Santana, 18 starts, 27 reliefs, 12-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 9+ strikeouts/game
  • 2004 Rodrigo Lopez, 23 starts, 14 reliefs, 14-9 with a 3.59 ERA

... then you find, what really happened was that a guy was a reliever for half the year, and a starter for the other half.  Legit swing men?  VERY tough to find.

Remember our old pal Jorge Campillo?  :- )  In 2008 he got BJOL's "Ed Walsh" award -- he went 8-7 with a 3.91 ERA, serving as a true Dual Use starter all year.  (I think; check me on his usage pattern.)

In 2012, Kris Medlen made 12 starts, 38 relief appearances, went 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA.  Whew.  But he was a young Earl Weaver-type reliever through July, and then ripped off 12 fabulous starts once they gave him the ball in the rotation.

A recent example of a true Dual Use starter:  Ramiro Mendoza.  Check this dude out:

Season Starts Relief App's ERA+ Yankee Wins
1997 15 24 106 96
1998 14 27 137 114 (!), World Series 4-0
1999 6 47 109 98, World Series 4-0
2000 9 5 114 87, World Series 4-1
2001 2 54 120 95, World Series 3-4
2002 0 62 129 103

We count 2002 as a Dual Use season because that team had Mike Mussina, David Wells, Roger Clemens, El Duque and Andy Pettitte in the rotation all year.  Ramiro was available to start, but simply not needed.  His appropriate usage was to Lurk.

I know, I know.  Strickly coincidence, that the best Ed Walsh of the last 20 years matches up with one of history's five greatest dynasties.

Garrett Richards, named by BJOL as the most notable "swing man," throws a 95 MPH fastball most the time and a cut fastball the rest of the time.  Must be nice to have a Taijuan Walker in that role, neh?  Richards has mixed starts and bullpen time freely, although all of his stints in the rotation came in three bursts over two years.  He's not a "spot starter;" maybe you guys can suggest a few names here?

.........

Take this with you:  every now and then, in the playoffs only, you'll see Lou Piniella roll a Randy Johnson out of the rotation, to be Used Dually.  That gives us a bit of a hint as to the lethality of this overlooked stratagem.

Or not :- )

.........

The only REAL reasons that nobody uses good pitchers as Dual Use types:

  • They don't have a good #5 starter to push him into the bullpen
  • A guy as good as that, he demands starter $$$ dinero

Chris Capuano, however, and the Mariners could transcend those two reasons.  Capuano needs to baby his arm these days, and the Ramiro Mendoza role for him .... :: slobber ::

The Mariners are reading this ;- ) and going, "Yeah, Jeff, yeah.  We know.  We wouldn't exactly mind having him do that for us.  Good luck to you, talking him into it."

Well, you give him extra money to do so.  Mark McLemore was the real MVP of the 116-win Mariners; this could be the mound version.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1
M's Watcher's picture

You make a good case for Cap in that role, the value he could bring, and the health benefit in return to him. But maybe the argument is just as valid to acquire better pitchers, and use them in roles where they are most likely to succeed. Unlike Wedge. Maybe Mac will be the best pitching addition this offseason, though I thought former catchers were supposed to make better managers. Still, I'd like to see the M's do a remake of the Oreos' four 20 game winners. It's hard to have a losing season when you have that. We can't even have one starter win 15, even with Felix and Kuma.

2

I had an Excel pie chart that explained everything, but it wouldn't paste onto the browser, despite being a JPEG.  !@#$%^Y&.
2013 Mariners Pitching Statistics:
 

Pitcher
ERA
IP
Hisashi Iwakuma
2.66
219.2
Felix Hernandez
3.04
204.1
Joe Saunders*
5.26
183.0
Aaron Harang
5.76
120.1
Brandon Maurer
6.30
90.0
Erasmo Ramirez
4.98
72.1
Yoervis Medina
2.91
68.0
Charlie Furbush*
3.74
65.0
Tom Wilhelmsen
4.12
59.0
Carter Capps
5.49
59.0
Danny Farquhar
4.20
55.2
Oliver Perez*
3.74
53.0
Blake Beavan
6.13
39.2
Jeremy Bonderman
4.93
38.1
Lucas Luetge*
4.86
37.0
Hector Noesi
6.59
27.1
James Paxton*
1.50
24.0
Taijuan Walker
3.60
15.0
Bobby LaFromboise*
5.91
10.2
Chance Ruffin
8.38
9.2
Stephen Pryor
0.00
7.1
Kameron Loe
10.80
6.2
Total
4.32
1465

Felix and Kuma, the 200 inning workhorses, only accounted for 30 percent of the innings pitched in 2013.  The back end of the bullpen is only good for 200 odd innings between Farquhar, Wilhelmson, Perez, and Furbush.  This left 800 rather forgettable innings.  
Considering 2014, even if everything goes as planned, we can pencil in Kuma and Felix for their 420 innings again, we can pencil in Paxton and Taijuan for 300 innings between them, and another 250 innings from the back end of the bull pen.  That accounts for 1000 innings.  Where are the other 400 going to come from?  Bet on Scott Baker for 100, and Erasmo for 150, and 250 from the long relief crowd.  That is best case optimistic scenario, and doesn't account for things like sore shoulders and sprained fingers from the starters.  
Looking at this, it seems like Dayton Moore is getting a bad rap for paying Jason Vargas so much.  Royals fans have cursed him and several generations of his ancestors for the move.  Vargas is good for a 200 spot on the inning count every blessed year, while the same cannot be said of his compies Paul Maholm and Chris Capuano.  
The second point is don't worry about signing veterans and not getting to see the kids pitch.  Even with a veteran, you are guaranteed a full year or a crackup, or an injury from Paxton, Walker, Erasmo and Maurer.  The kids will get to play.  Perhaps moreso than we are comfortable with.

3

Looking at the 2013 pitching post mortem, it seems like maybe Wedge got a bad rap for mishandling the bullpen. It seems like the 2013 bullpen was constructed of duct tape, scrap metal and baling wire, and Yeorvis Medina, Charlie Furbush, and Co. kept the thing on the rails despite some horrible starts and some impossible extra inning games. There were no bullpen injuries, despite several of the guys being run to the red line since the very start of the year. Another thing is, no wonder Oliver Perez won't come back. He is probably worried that the Mariners will work his arm completely off.

4
M's Watcher's picture

If we can do without the 5-ish to 6+ ERA starting pitching our 'pen will indeed be less stressed and hopefully better. Thankfully, Saunders/Harang/Bondo are long gone, but if replaced by our current spaghetti, it may be no better. Felix and Kuma for their 420 quality IP, plus another 500 from the next three spots in the rotation would go along way toward that. I can't see Walker/Pax being anywhere close to as bad as last year's bums. The rest? Who knows.

5

Maybe he won't be a hoss going into the eighth routinely, but IFF properly used I can see Erasmo putting up a 3.50 ERA in a whole bunch of 6 inning starts, which is certainly easier to plan for and deal with than Harang's shutout followed by 2-inning 6-run blowout pattern.
I think it is *more* important that the #3-5 starters be consistent than occasionally dominant / routinely hittable if you want the 'pen to thrive. Those 5.50 to 6.50 ERAs were worse to deal with BECAUSE the blowouts were a major portion of them - both Harang and Saunders had some excellent performances scattered in there, but had way too many early departures, or starts where Wedge left them in because the BP was already gassed..
Hopefully, Paxton has figured his landing mechanics out as he is really the only wild card this year (assuming that if Baker makes the rotation it's because he's back to his Ol' Reliable self) -- which should make 'pen management easier. If Maurer learned some things and worked on some things and can cover some early departures and spot starts, things could work out quite nicely. Not as sure a thing as having Bedard or Capuano, but it looks like that's what we got.

6

Big Ed was the stud hoss in '08, Doc. 464 innings is all he threw.
That summer, when we first took to the sandlot, I used to practice my Big Ed "Death Ray Stare:" The one you see above.
Alas, it wasn't intimidating for me on the mound. I suppose my noodle for an arm contributed to that. Coach soon threw me the tools of ignorance and told me to crouch behind the plate. I sighed and adopted Johnny Kling as my favorite player. Catching for the Cubbies, he smashed 4 homers that year and B-R lists my guy as the 760th best hitter of all time.
You remember Kling, don't you, Doc? :)
I think as much as anything the demise of the 4-man rotation doomed the true swing-type pitcher. Your swing guy became your #5.
Ray Sadecki was a true swing guy for my '69-'73 Mets. He wasn't as old as Cappy, but he had been in the majors forever and was a "crafty" lefty, too. Mets made the WS twice in that run.
All the way up to '78 Tom Seaver started 36 games. With the more common double-headers it was hard for any pitcher to get 40 starts, even in a true 4-man rotation. Even Catfish Hunter, a complete stud hoss of a guy, only went over 37 starts twice (40 & 41) during the heydey of the A's love affair with 4-man rotations.
You and I grew up with true swing men as part of the game, Doc.
In '75 the Catfish signed one of the 1st big FA contracts, with the Yankees (of course). His salary jumped from $100K to $640K. The Yankees used the heck out of him that year: 39 starts, 30 CG's and 328 innings. But after that, I think teams began being a bit more careful with their now large investments. Hunter was beginning to be burned out by '77, he was only 31.
The 4-man rotation largely died with his arm. The true swing man, too.
moe

7

When I think proverbial swing men, Piniella's use of Halama+Franklin as our 5L and 5R starters. They combined for 22 starts, 60 relief appearances and over 200 Innings of sub-4 ERA ball (which would be worth a lot from a current #5 SP, let alone one before the Supreme Court hearings on PEDs).
It's the only time I can ever think of where the 5th spot in the rotation was used like that and keep feeling surprised at how much resounding success it had.
Looking at the sheer awesomeness of SP and RP depth that team had is likely the big reason why it was so possible. 3 SP as locks for 200+ IP (2 of them being young studs) and 3 10+ K/9 relievers that put a death grip on the game in the 7th allowed for a lot more potential for Lou to place guys in situations with better chances of succeeding.

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