Ryan Franklin, closer

Looking it over, he was pretty consistent at giving up 1.5 HR/9 from 1999-2006, mostly as a starter, while overall decent in 01-03 then pure mush in 04-05.  Then he goes to STL and at age 34 and since his HR/9 is 0.9, 1.14 and 0.3.  Obviously, that is in relief, but does that make a huge difference for a guy like Franklin who doesn't rely on stuff?

.........

I agree with Matty that you always have to be aware of the NL/AL delta, but wouldn't necessarily factor it much, in Ryan Franklin's case. 

Ryan Franklin can pitch in the AL.  Once he finished like #9 in the league in ERA over here.  The question is more, "Can he go through a lineup more than once?"

...........

Scouts talk constantly about this or that guy -- Campillo and Franklin being two specific examples -- being bullpen guys.  You'll hear Mariners scouts, especially, always wanting to move Joe Shlabotnik to relief.  They do this (usually) precisely because they fear what would happen with overexposure.

Probably the very first question that a real good tools scouts ask about a pitcher is, does he have what it takes to make it through a lineup the 2nd and 3rd times.  

Seriously, they go sit in the stands and watch, say, Jason Vargas in AAA and that's what they're assessing.  How does this stuff look to a guy who's already seen 5 of his pitches earlier that night.

............

Dennis Eckersley always thought that was critical for him.  "If it's me against you one time, I like my chances."   A pitcher who gets to face you once, pulls out all the stops, holds no tricks back. 

It's comparable to a 20-second fight between a Shotokan black belt and your local drunk in a bar.  Here comes his best, right off the bat -- hard front kick to the groin, drunk drops his hands, there's the elbow to the head... strike three, grab some bench.  The Shotokan guy stakes everything on one great combo.  If that doesn't work, and the drunk takes him to the ground, he may be in serious trouble.

In the UFC, that won't work.  You don't get to just use one or two techniques and then go home for the night.  It's a war of attrition, both sides waiting for their chances.  Mistake avoidance is the name of the game.

............

My guess is, Ryan Franklin is simply benefitting from the fact that it's hard to "stalk" him over the course of only 4 pitches.  If so, that's one more brass stud in Tony LaRussa's pennant-hunting rifle.

As compared to other kitchen-sink 5-pitch guys, Ryan Franklin has a notch more stuff than they do.  He throws 91-93, forcing the hitters to stay a little more "flicky" at the plate, and his overhand curve is pretty legit.

............

Objectively speaking, maybe it would be possible for Campillo and Petit to throw 4 pitches to a hitter in one AB, have each pitch be at a different velocity, and see if those guys could dink-and-doink their ways to closeouts.   

Maybe one of these days, that's exactly what closers will be:  Japanese-style pitchers who come in and, for one inning, never repeat a pitch type to a hitter.  :- )

It feels very uncomfortable to have Evan Longoria at the plate, game on the line, and then have the pitcher lob the ball up there real slow.  Do you think Wakamatsu would ever let an 86-mph'er pitch the 8th or 9th?

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

1

Just some quick calculations, though I might be missing something.
Total AL payroll for 2009: $1.36B or $97.1M per team
Total NL payroll for 2009: $1.39B or $86.9M per team
Except that when you exclude the Yankees (49% higher than highest NL team), the AL avg. drops to $88.6M
So for the non-NYY teams, the difference is $1.7M per team, which I don't think is all that significant.
But the NL has the four lowest-payroll teams, and one of those (Florida) is 43% below the lowest-payroll AL team (Oakland).
Also, as it happens, the NL has two high-payroll teams that have failed to show the ability to get consistent results for their bucks (Mets and Cubs)
And, as it happens, the AL has two/three low-payroll teams that generally do show the ability to get good results for their bucks (Twins, A's historically, Rays in 08)
So I think a fuller picture is that, right now, the NL has lower bottom-feeders (Pitt for all time apparently and Fla, Wash, SD at the moment); the AL has the one team that can dig deep for the stars at the top of the market (and, as Doc points out in his S&S pardigm, the mega-stars are the ones most likely to deliver); the NL has a few teams with more money than smarts and the AL has a few teams with more smarts than money.
But, if the data are as compelling as Matt says, I wonder why (1) don't free agent fringe pitchers insist on signing with the NL to boost their stats and (2) NL teams don't raid AL rosters for "hidden Ryan Franklins" who will be NL stars?
 

2

I'm not saying the NL is filled with crappy players and a few starts or that the AL is ten times stronger or whatever...but there's enough of a difference for fringe players to be terrible in the AL and good in the NL (or at least to APPEAR that way).
And it may be correct that the NL is 80% of the AL with 20% crap thrown in on top that screws up the statistical picture...that dosn't change the reality that you need to measure league quality and make a strong guess as to how it will impact each player making the transition

4

Prior to 2005, there was NO schizm between the leagues.  Interleague play results were nearly even, and swung routinely back and forth between the two leagues.
So, one question I would ask is what happened in regards to player migration from '04 to '05.
 

5

I believe it was THT but it might have been BP that did a study on free agent value moving from league to league and warned BEFORE the 2005 season that the AL had gotten as much as 2-4 wins PER TEAM better than the NL if the free agents held their value as a group.

6
Taro's picture

Ya, it slowly happened with FA/trades in the offseason, prospects as a whole developing better in the AL.. Then the gap started to widen.
In all likelyhood this is eventually going to even up again. It could take a while though at this rate...

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