Ripoff
Now Dr. D is alarmed

.

Okay, you came in to the boardroom, you made your PowerPoint presentation.  You wanted approval for $15,000 to buy the flatbed truck for the warehouse.  We were a little uncertain about the whole thing, on a lot of levels ... is this make of truck really as good as Hyundai?  Do we really have $15,000 to allocate to that?  Does it really better us to have our own flatbed, and moving people, as opposed to paying the contractors to move things?

No, you had the whole meeting nailed, you had your answers ready and then some, and we allocated the $15,000.  The owner even extended it to $16,800 onsite.

But do you mind explaining this memo that we got today?

 

OBFSerious question... How tight of a brotherhood are the 30 GMs? Would it be possible that Tower proposed to get a too good to be true offer from JackyZ, just to have it nixed by Upton, so that he could save face when he would eventually get 50 cents on the dollar from Atlanta, and paint Upton as the villain, not himself? "Hey look, I had a sweet deal from Seattle, but Justin messed that up, so don't blame me for only getting chaff, for our best player..." JZ would never agree to help Towers out like that would he??? It would help explain why the M's were uncharacteristically loose lipped about the failed trade.

.

Good question amigo; Dr. D will have to opine a big fat hairy NO, he wouldn't help Towers out like that, and we'll tell you exactly why.

................

Gordon GrossOur offer:

  • Prospect with #1 starter potential (top 10 in the minors),
  • Starting 2B/SS prospect w/ power (top 100), and
  • either two power relievers, or
  • the OAK arms WASH got for Morse (meaning, Jaso is now said to have been in the Upton deal - jjc).

ATL's offer: prospect with BOR potential, Figgins 3B type in final contract year, a defensive SS w/ zero power, a future middle reliever and a tin can.  If we were making that same ATL offer it would be

  • Beavan,
  • Guti,
  • F-Mart,
  • Gillheeney and Bryan Brito (Who? exactly).

Let's you spend four hours "in the box" with a used car salesman.  You're offering $15,500 and he's holding firm at $17,200.  You pick up your stuff and threaten to walk out.  Wait a minute, he says, I'll check with the manager.  

He comes back.  I can make it 17,150 if you waive the warranty.  Come on!, you say, this is ridiculous.  $16,000 or I walk.  Hold on, he says.  Write me a check for $3,000 and I'll staple it to the offer; my manager does better when he knows he has your business today.

He comes back.  Well, the manager's really proud of this truck.  He can do 17,000, if you have 7,000 today and we can offer you 9% on the rest.

It goes all day long like that and you miss your Saturday off.  Finally you agree, at 16,800.  The owner of the company signs off ... ah, problem, sir, we forgot to figure in the sales tax.  You're in a hurry and can't get that approved ... WAI, WAIT the sales guy says -- NOPE you say you've had enough, and you climb in your car and drive off.  Ah well.  Thanks for trying, sir.  Come back next week and we'll have an upgraded model for you.  Better fuel efficiency.

You come back by the lot the next day, to buy the truck at their price, and somebody else is driving the truck off the lot.  You stop him and say hello.  Mind telling me what you got it for?  18,000, 17,000?  You're hoping it's not 15,500.

Got a great deal, the other customer says.  Only $3,000!

You look back in and four salesmen, looking at you, suddenly stifle their chuckles and turn away, pretending to talk about something else.

................

Every time that salesman came back to you, asking for concessions -- waive the warranty, sir?  Put more down? -- he was well-and-truly insulting you.  Do you understand why?

Fortune 500 is about TQM, CQI, continuous quality improvement.  In other words -- things go wrong, fine.  But you'd better be able to explain why.  ... It's okay to make a mistake.  To miss the deadline, miss the budget, have the auditors throw a snit fit and, after the fact, be without a clue as to why things got so weird?  Not okay.

.

...............

1.  I don't consider Taijuan Walker the pick of the M's litter, but baseball certainly does.  The Diamondbacks got their CHOICE of the Big Three.  That's one big fat HAIRY concession.

2.  Combining a Golden Arm with a sweetener, a value prospect -- let's say Romero, or Capps, or Maurer, or Sanchez -- would have been a pretty sweet deal for the DBacks.  But giving them their pick of the second player, also?  Nick Franklin is in EVERYBODY's top 100 and he is an ML-ready player.  At a glove spot.

3.  That's not enough?  Here comes concession number THREE:  you get glamor ML bullpen arms, Stephen Pryor and his 97 mph 15-inch fastball and 10+ K's in the bigs, a kid who has been to the bigs and pitched the 8th, and/or you get John Jaso.

Any one of those three concessions would be an Owie.  With a capital O.  But all three of them?

And those are concessions, things given away after you gave the DBacks one of your glamor SP's.  Which the Braves certainly didn't.

................

I'm all for paying $1.20 on the dollar -- when I'm getting back something I know I'm going to be happy with.  Sometimes you give three properties to get Marvin Gardens, and you win the game with the yellows.  But Justin Upton wasn't our dream player.  He's a player with warts, big ones.

That's what the Mariners did with Kendrys Morales, a one-year Scott Boras client:  they gave the Angels a 2-WAR starting pitcher that the Angels can re-sign if they want.  But Vargas wasn't in our plans, so the $1.20 was fine.  Same thing with Jaso for Morse.  That's paying $1.20 in rubles for $1.00 worth of deutschmarken.  The M's overpaid a little, but it was a good overpay.

Taijuan Walker isn't rubles.  He's yen.  And we didn't get back no Giancarlo Stanton.

Granted, Justin Upton might have put the Diamondbacks in a Ken Griffey Jr. Cincinnati situation, cutting their return.  But the fact remains that Towers could have kept Upton.  If he was willing to sell Upton for a buck, we shouldn't have been haggling about $4 vs. $5.  We need to know why were so badly in the dark.

Also in Zduriencik's defense:  baseball understands about overpaying, to get a lousy franchise moving in the right direction.  The Nationals wayyy overpaid Jayson Werth, but look where they are now.  That's the way other GM's look at the Werth deal.

There's an internal pressure -- Zduriencik is telling his players, and other GM's, Seattle is going to be legit.  We are not going to settle for anything else.  That message, we are glad to see.

But overbidding Yourself ... Four. Times.

................

Dr. D has been around a few steering committees.  Not tons, but some.  And the ones he's seen, in situations like this, when the news about that Atlanta deal rolls in? ... some people who sold us that presentation have some serious explaining to do.  

Me?  I'd like to know why the M's outbid themselves FOUR (4) TIMES OVER.  This one, gentlemen, you are entitled to resent.

Would the Mariners show baseball their keisters, so as to do Kevin Towers a solid?  Um, no.

Bah humbug,

Dr D

 

Comments

1
ghost's picture

...before we wail that Z is really REALLY bad at making trades, let's remember that:
a) we have WAAAAY more to give up than Atlanta did and thus the asking price will be higher for us, fair or not
b) Martin Prado is an all star...not just Chone Figgins, but Chone Figgins with a lot more line drive power who is likely to age better and has been considerably more consistent with the bat
c) their secondary player is very-well-liked in baseball circles...and no he's not a zeor-bat SS...he's a questionable bat with good power for a MIF and an outstanding defensive reputation...our second player probably won't even stay at shortstop and is a rather poor defender.
and
d) it's not two relievers...it's one...Furbush was never in the deal...that was false reporting. It was one reliever and an extra nickel prospects or NOT the reliever but the prospects Oakland gave up for Jaso.
I agree that the ATL deal was weaker than ours...that is because his value was collapsing with his market suitors all moving on to other clubs, Doc...but I don't think the difference is as stark as you're making it sound

2

It's changed a couple times now with the removal of Furbush and the inclusion of Jaso. There must have been something else coming back or some people are just combining different iterations of the proposed deal.

3
Lonnie of MC's picture

First, why would you expend all of that energy and show your hand without consulting Upton first? That is the part that bugs me the most. If I knew that a trade hinged on a player giving the green light, I get that freakin' green light before I proceed any further.
Second is the level of talent that the M's were "willing" to trade for Upton. That part makes no sense at all. Anyone with a computer, an internet connection, and the willingness to check a few things could plainly see that Upton is a product of the desert. Take him away from there and he falls below average.
The third part that is pegging the stank-o-meter is the openness by the Mariners to discuss the trade afterward.
What the heck?

4

Has always bugged me too, but it wouldn't be the first time a player nixed a completed deal either. I'm a fan of the conspiracy that the Mariners made the offer expecting it not to go through as a demo for the Marlins and MLB.

5

The standard procedure in these circumstances is to negotiate the trade first and then grant a period of time for the other team to speak to the player. Teams would never allow other organizations to contact their player before a deal is worked out.
And Upton is not some mirage. Looking at just a player's road stats is absolutely NOT the correct way to evaluate someone. Can we please stop with this shallow analysis? He also is still very young so he should be expected to be even better than he has been so far. With his talent and track record, he is perfectly capable of being a star the next 3 years.

6

My article doesn't accuse Zduriencik of being a weak trade partner.  On the contrary, I get the impression that he has a gruff, cigar-chewing persona that peer GM's respect.
By his own admission (Hot Stove League shows on 710) he's getting a tsunami of trade offers that are not Apple-to-Orange (Maurer for Morse) but 2 Apples to Orange, and 2 Apples for Half an Orange.
The 'twitt-a-spheh' has been abuzz with rival GM's sensing that Seattle is desperate this winter.  This is the backstory - not Zduriencik's game on a multiyear scan.

7

Here is a tweet that the DBacks have an agreement practically worked out.
If the DBacks -- and baseball -- saw Prado as a core piece going forward, a sort of faster version of a Nick Swisher going forward, that would temper the difference in the deals by a lot.  Point cheerfully conceded.
Me?   I look at his 3.6 runs per 27 outs, year before last, in 590 AB's.  This is my corner outfielder going forward?  Looks like John Jaso plus a couple steps down the line, and minus a catcher's mitt.  If the Mariners put Martin Prado in left field I'd throw my monitor through the window.  :- )
But if I'm wrong about Prado, and he's some kind of young fast Choo or Swisher or something, the article is null.

8

We heard SPECULATION about that earlier -- perhaps because the deal made more sense that way -- but as the later returns rolled in (like the report that Jaso went out in the deal too), I didn't hear anything about a second Arizona player.  Did you?

10

And it doesn't seem like anybody IN baseball was worried about the home/road splits.  Certainly I wasn't either CPB.
Upton would have been nice, though in my view, far short of a Hamilton type get.  There would have been hand-wringing to do until he got on a good roll here, which he *probably* would have.
I wasn't much against paying the $16,800 for the flatbed truck.  It's hearing that everybody else was paying $3,000 that sounds the alarm meter.

11
blissedj's picture

But it sounds like there could have been more coming the M's way. Would have felt a little better with someone like Wade Miley or Tyler Skaggs along with Upton. Still feels like Upton did us a solid by thankfully rejecting the deal.
All turns out for the best with Morse on board to potentially out-hit Upton for 1/5 the cost!

12

We know for certain that this was an actual deal, because of the report that it would've sent Jaso to Oakland. No reason to get Oakland involved in negotiations if it was a fake deal specifically designed to get PR for Arizona. We also know that this "PR" for Arizona did them exactly zero good. In fact, it did them a lot of harm; it basically forced them to deal Upton AND removed the top bidder from the running. Maybe it helped Seattle a bit on the PR front, but if Z was really the one who leaked the deal two questions: 1) why wasn't he willing to discuss it at the media conference or on the radio? 2) why did the reports say Furbush was involved when he wasn't?
Occam's Razor. This was a real deal, and someone's front office has a leak.

13

Why talk about ANY players?
This has been my biggest gripe!!!
Again, as others have said, maybe it was Towers, but.... there sure seems like a lot of people in the Mariner's "inner circle" that have done MORE than their fair share of talking on this...
And Baker is STILL on vacation.

14
ghost's picture

Prado is playing third base...not the corner outfield...and I don't think they see him as Swisher lite...but as Figgins-HEAVY...as in...Figgins with some pop.
But yeah...I'm not saying he's a stud...he's just a very useful player. I did misunderstand the point of your article though. I am as ticked off as you are about Z getting repeatedly screwed over for no reason at all.

15
ghost's picture

A theory...
Z and Towers decide to talk Upton. Towes assures Z that he can get Upton to pass on his NT clause...then he proceeds to ride Z like a cheap rented mule...forcing him to accept a very expensive package deal or go home with nada...Z fights as hard as he can but chips down the price only a skosh before accepting the deal in good faith...Towers, meanwhile, is hoping to use the offer to leverage other teams into coughing up the coin for Upton if Upton refuses the wave his NT clause...which he does. With Upton rejecting the deal, Z feels used and lied to and orders his people to leak the particulars of the deal and the NT clause rejection to the press to lower Upton's trade value - hurting 'Zona's PR, Upton's worth to the D'Backs and Towers' reputation among other GMs while giving Seattle a PR boost. You ride me hard and lie to my face...I stick a needle in your eye.

16

I don't recall anything about a mariners source for any of this. Zduriencik has refused to"discuss players on other clubs" every time I've seen him asked. Did I miss some conversation? As far as I know the packages and details were all released by other parties.
There may or may not have been more returning, the repetitive changes make me fairly uncertain that we've heard the whole truth still. If we trade Wells next week will he later be reported as having been included? That whole thing was kind of odd. Not sure we'll ever know.
Texas removing themselves from talks followed by Upton removing the Mariners from the conversation could conceivably lower the asking price. 2 less bidders will do that sometimes. Not certain Texas was completely out, but it's been reported.
I do like the reported Mariners package better, but it's understandable they couldn't get as much with less bidders. Arizona should have checked with Upton. They really screwed themselves by losing bidders. They would have done better with Seattle still bidding. Removing them the way they did seems pretty stupid.

17
bsr's picture

Not the Dbacks, they got a worse return
Not the M's, they didnt get their guy and they were subsequently embarrassed when a worse deal got it done and a player publicly rejected them
The Braves benefited...but leaking another team's offer is very poor form
Justin Upton got traded to a good team, not in the wilds of the Northwest...while publicly revealing his high trade value...he doesn't care what the Dbacks get for him...and has nothing to lose in the future by having loose lips (unlike a team)...ergo by Occam I'll assume his camp leaked the M's offer

18

As I understand it, teams typically don't tell the players who they're being traded for until the deal is complete. In this case Towers, who is known as voluble, may have told Reynolds in trying to get Upton to approve ("we're getting a passel for you,bud, c'mon, give us a go"). But I think, pace Occam, the D'backs leaked it not realizing how much their leverage would suffer.

19
misterjonez's picture

So what if Jack assumed Upton would refuse to waive the NTC, so he put he offer out here with he intention of leaking the details in order to diminish he return AZ got for Upton?
This way, Upton actually does get traded, since AZ is pot-committed to the idea of trading Upton by the time details leak and Z gets to use the lesser package he netted as the bar a Mike Stanton trade has to clear, rather than some absurd 'Felix plus the big three plus Zunino plus Montero...' nonsense.
Just my early morning musing. I like a good left-field theory as much as anyone.

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