War of Attrition

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Many Denizens here are more literate in the U.S. Civil War than I am.  Have heard, though, that towards the end of it the North was more able to afford losses than the South, so Grant was able to employ tactics that implied even losses.  This "War of Attrition" game theory applies itself in many battles, sports and otherwise.  An NBA team that is up 14 in the 4th quarter can trade baskets.  

In chess, if you're up two pawns, the side that is behind cannot afford to trade pieces -- and the corollary is that the winning side can move his Queen and Knights up the board, secure in the knowledge that the enemy Queen and Knights cannot oppose them in face-offs that result in trades.  This advantage is prohibitive.  It's almost impossible for the losing side to salvage a draw when the winning side has carte blanche to pick even 50-50 fights any place he wants to.

The position above is a more subtle example.  You can see the White pieces facing-up the black pieces with impunity - here, not because White is ahead material, but because any stripped-down endgame leaves Black defending his many weak Pawn islands.

In boxing, if a 230-lb. heavyweight is boxing a 150-lb. middleweight (?) there is one of the combatants who seeks a position from which he can trade blows 1-for-1.  This creates all sorts of tactical disadvantages for the smaller man -- disadvantages that themselves seem to have little do do with size.  

In golf, if Moe is up on you by 4 strokes with 9 holes to play, he has strategic options open to him that will allow him to "close you out" with the greatest of ease.  And so on.  "Attrition" is a powerful force in Game Theory.

....

At the point in the season, the Mariners have a ridiculous number of pitchers on the DL.  But!  They aaren't the only team with injuries.  The Rays have Alex Cobb on the DL, and they have Matt Andriese on the 60-day DL.  Andriese was throwing very well, 5-1 3.54 with 8+ strikeouts and a 118 ERA+.  Andriese and Jacob Faria have the two best ERA+ for Tampa, and the M's miss Faria as well.  Leaving us to face:

√ Austin Pruitt (who is throwing well but who is not Alex Cobb)

√ Jake Odorizzi (not throwing at his best, with a season-long 2.1 homer rate)

√ Blake Snell (LHP walking 4.7 men per game, with gopheritis)

Not exactly a cakewalk, but it's better than Archer-Cobb-Odorizzi-Faria.

Am not booked up on current AL Disabled Lists, since I don't play fantasy baseball any more.  But it would probably be interesting to take a look around the DL landscape in the American League.  The Rays have Kevin Keirmayer and Colby Rasmus out also.  Not saying the Mariners are in great shape, but we do need to remember that as a baseball season runs its course, there are a lot of teams that play at less than full power. 

....

Probably NFL teams are more concerned with "layering" than baseball teams are, but sometimes you wonder why ...

Enjoy,

Dr D

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Comments

1

Cave man chess.  Now you're speaking my language!  Trade queens, and trade  a rook or two (or not) and hit that C5 pawn like you was Pac Man.  blunt force trauma from the queen side.  

Baseball is the only sport with no way to stall out the clock.  That's what makes it so great.  You turn over your random football or basketball game or chess match, and the winning team goes firmly into lockdown mode at the first advantage in the fourth quarter.  Baseball just has pitchers and shifts, which are much less trustworthy than football and basketball techniques.  

The aggregate attrition of a season does make baseball boring.  Every August, half the teams sell their best players and lose on purpose.  How much fun is that to watch? Lockdowns should be reserved for winning teams, and losing teams should be fined for losing on purpose to air out some rookies, or get a better draft or whatever.  

This phenomenon is particularly lame because the Mariners have a tough schedule from here on out.  There is:

Rays 3g.

Braves 3g.

NYY 3g

Orioles 3g

Orcs 6g

Stros 6g

StRangers 7g

LAAAA 5g

Indians 3g.

Lets hope the M's feast on some Braves and Orcs enough to make it through the easy win famine that is coming up.

2

Otherwise... I like some of Black's options. That White Q isn't guarded. (I think... I'm no expert)

Yeah, hopefully we're due for some reverse attrition. Dreams of going for it with Verlander look unlikely, but if Felix (and Kuma?!?!) can somehow make it back to help, we have a nice advantage in the endgame here. Doubly so if we sneak in an SP3 trade from somewhere.

Team looks to be tightening up... in the good sense. Let's hope it continues.

3
el bandito's picture

As I see it, if it's white's move the game is over. If not, white is boned. Really hope I'm not just overlooking something...

4

Just threw the position in there at a glance of about a second or two, assuming 1. Qxh6 and an easy positional win.  (Of course if it were black's move, white's Queen would be en prise.)  But as you imply, there is 1. Rxd8+ with an eventual Qe8+.  Nice going Bandito.  

This comment is also based on just a second or two, so if you've got even further correction, don't hold back!

Tactics trump pawn islands :- ) ... assume no Q's on the board, Black to play, and then I think the strategic sermonizing would apply.  Gracias. 

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