K-Pax vs Orcs
How soon Dr. D forgets the Lastros series

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It's one thing to watch a good, tediously methodical team like the Spurs (cf. Iwakuma).  It's another thing to watch a fun, dynamic team like the Heat (cf. Taijuan).  It's a third thing to watch a team that is fun and good, like the Showtime Lakers.  Or the Showtime Seahawks.

James Paxton, of course, is off-the-charts on both scales.  It's a treat to watch him pitch.  Don't forget to tingle, even if only from the keister as you sit motionless for three hours while savoring tonight's ballgame.

Paxton should be spending his first 30-50 career starts muddling through a 5.50 ERA.  That was the way with Mark Mulder, Gio Gonzalez, Randy Johnson (!), Sandy Koufax, and every other rookie lefthand SP with a blazing fastball.  Or if not that, at least the pockmarked success that Clayton Kershaw managed with his 4-5 walks per game.

Instead, Paxton has inverted that "Welcome to the League, Kid" saw.  Courtesy of the M's information department, here are the best career ERA's after 13 starts:

SP ERA era Remark
Steve Rogers, MON 1.15 classic 70's rock 5 WAR/year x 10 years
K-Pax 1.75 pre-M's dynasty Give you 3 Taijuans for 1 K-Pax
Tiny Bonham, NYY 1.81 During WWII Had a no-hitter going, until the big kids got out of school
Zach Duke, PIT 1.85 Recent This list isn't a guarantee.  Just a tendency
Cal Eldred, Mil 1.85 Junior's rookie years 4+ WAR/year, then got hurt early

...

Supposing that K-Pax locks down the A's tonight -- staking a claim to being the M's true "Stopper," here are the numbers for historical SP's after 14 starts:

SP ERA era Remark
Steve Rogers, MON 1.31 classic 70's rock 5 WAR/year x 10 years
Tiny Bonham 1.67    
Zach Duke      
Hideo Nomo, LAD 1.90 Sweet Lou arrives Yu Darvish for 2-3 years, then the arm went and the BB's skyrocketed
Dave Righetti, NYY 1.96 Birth of M's franchise 60% of a HOF career

...

Notice that as we hit the 14-start milestone, the 1+ ERA's are hanging on for dear life.

...

Dr. D's keys to the game

  • LO:  Paxton finally takes a mulligan, unable to find the strike zone, loses badly
  • MID:  He throws strikes, has no pitchability, and sheer stuff produces an Ultra Quality Start
  • HI:  He finally gets a whipsaw, and pitchability, going, fanning 8+ (Orcs' fan excerpts tomorrow)

Offensively:  we just want to see the M's batters loose and fluid at the plate.  Comfortably letting balls go by, and accelerating the bat with happiness when they get their pitches.  Gotta let the game come to you, boyz.

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M's Info Dept.

Fernando Rodney needs only one save to tie Daimajin's 45 from the 116-win season.  How is that possible?  :- )

The M's still have the #4 run differential among 30 MLB teams.  In theory they should be top-5 in power rankings.  I am not sure whether M's blogs foresaw this in March.  I am also not sure whether the Trade Deadline talking heads were aware of this in July.  They're also theoretically a playoff-specific team, with their Big Three.

The M's have used 128 lineups this year.  That's the fungible Stars & Scrubs thingy.  It's the 9-to-make-5, and Lloyd McClendon, that have given the offense any chance whatsoever to overcome Smoak and Almonte...

The M's lineup is #5 in runs scored since the Trade Deadline.  No thanks to anyone acquired then.  The hitters the last 30 days:  Brad Miller, Endy Chavez, Kyle Seager, and Dustin Ackley.  There are another several guys who have hit "mediocre," which is to say "a lot better than they used to."

Supposing the M's lineup relaxed into their game, and started swinging well en masse, this is the kind of roster that is a serious threat to poach a World Series.

Cheers,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

2

Couldn't throw strikes to save his life, and actually gave up some fly balls for once in his life. But showed some good pitchability and managed to keep things from snow balling.
It's crazy that this might be the worst start he's had in the majors and it's 6 innings and two runs, only one of then earned.
After the game one of the A's said it was like facing Chris Sale for the second night in a row. The poor guys probably think Felix will be a respite tomorrow.

3

Who goes to Oakland, and pummels them. Orcs spared from complete humiliation only by a squeezing ump who can't believe the rook can really be THAT good.

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