.

Any day with James Paxton is a good day.  :- D

.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Keys 1, 2, and 3.  Foshballs for strikes. 

How many?  Is it 7, or is it 27?  It is whatever number provokes an "in between" swing.  Two or three such swings are plenty.  Remember, his last two games the BABIP on his fastball was .. 7-for-11 and then I forget the second, but it was like 11-of-20.  This issue is non-negotiable.  Paxton is well aware that he can't let batters hit as though they had the pitch number.

Couple-three in between.  (If you just joined us, that means a RH swinging early and missing his "cutter-slider aka foshball" over the top of it.  And it means fouling back a "slower" fastball with a "emergency" reaction.

....

Other keys UPward are ... 99 MPH instead of 95, Changeup for strikes, tight spin and low location on the slider, maybe even a yakker.

A key DOWNward -- being behind in the count and looking out of synch.  He's really only had one game like that, the last one.  Maybe the first one .. yeah, the first one.  Those two games were the only ones.

.

DOOGIE

His arsenal has changed the last two years - he throws tons of "sneaky" fastballs in the zone with control, and every 10 pitches will contain 1 slider, 1 slow curve, and 1 changeup.)  Has a shiny 3.55 ERA but a mouldy 4.89 fielding-independent pitching (an e/RA stat that tells you what your ERA "should" be, given mediocre fielding behind you.

....

Trends?  Is he moving from Point A to Point B in any sense meaningful for tonight's game?  Not really, no. His velocity has been exactly stable since his first three starts - 87 MPH on the fastball, but remember he steps closer, so 87 is the new 92.

Shandler Quality Starts (0-5 scale)?  Counting backwards from July 7, eight days ago:  

July 7 = 3/5 (8 innings, 3 hits, but K/BB data were cruddy)

July 2 = 0/5 (kayo'ed in the 5th, with 5 walks)

June 26 = 3/5 (went 7 innings almost, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts .... but 3 homers and 8 hits.  Did this drive the nibbling on July 2 and 7?)

June 20 = 4/5 (Deep start with 5:2 control, but not quite enough strikeouts.  PQS 4 start and the score was Astros 10, Angels 7 :- )  )

June 14 = 4/5 (7 beautiful innings with 5 hits and 6:1 control, but 2 homers docks you)

So Fister's stats say that he is a little conflicted.  Should he basically nibble and be "precise" or should he make sure to stay ahead in counts, even at the risk of 2-3 homers tonight?

.....

Dae-Ho Lee is in there tonight.  Oh happy day.  Could also mean that Adam Lind has to be showcased for trade, and that the M's want Lee in synch when they pull the trigger.

Or probably not.  :- )  But Dae-Ho Lee will be in the ballgame.

.

BABVA,

Dr D