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Rats and Bar-Press Training

First time that Dr. D sat down in an undergrad class at the UW, there were 749 other Psych 101 frosh next to him, seated in the same hall.  The prof fired up our undergrad careers by telling us a tale of rats, cages, and bars that released food pellets.

"There are two ways to teach a rat the basic bar press," the prof said.  He described a tedious process of rewarding the rat for progressively more correct behaviors.  "The other way is, you put the rat in there, go get lunch, and when you come back, the rat knows how to bar-press."

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First time that Dr. D read a Bill James Handbook, some years later, James wrote "Starting pitchers are trying to outlast injury and job loss.  Most starting pitchers, if they stayed in the rotation, would figure a way to get hitters out."

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First time that Dr. D wrote this particular post, he was trying to get across the idea that starting pitchers gain wisdom.  They gain wisdom in one of two ways:

• Through a conscious process
• Through an unconscious process of operant conditioning (they just develop a flinch against pitches that get them "zapped")

Felix has stayed healthy lo, these 10 years, and unlike most pitchers of his ilk (including Clemens and Seaver) the electricity of his stuff has NOT waned.  He is getting better and better, and there is the possiblity of his spiralling off into his own Supreme universe:

Do you see any breaks in the symmetry?  That chart's ccccllleeeeaaaaaaan, man.  Leading us to the reasonable question:  where are the numbers going for 2017?

The strikeouts for 2014 are no accident.  His swinging strike rate, lifetime, is 9.8% ... this year, it's a sky-high 14.7%.  In his own words, he's chosen to go into "Nasty Mode" for us.  SSI's question:  why does he have to have a gun to his head, to do it?  Pedro was in Nasty Mode when he grabbed his Good Humor bar out of the clubhouse freezer.

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Sequencing AB, BA ... vs Sequencing ABCD, DCBA, ...., BACD

Lot of choices for Felix considering his legitimate 4 pitches.  

The specific choice that he has made in 2014, two games on, has maximized his Nasty Mode.  He's using Fastball Up, Changeup Down, mix the curve to keep them honest.  You could look it up, Yogi.  This is the very Pedro Martinez mix that SSI has coveted since he was a rookie.

As good as Felix is, he ain't as good as Pedro was.   Felix' ERA+ is 127; Pedro's was 200-290.  There's no reason that should be the case.

But in 2014, Felix has taken to admiring his own Dry Spitball er, changeup, saying gleefully, "Thass my pitch, mon."

• In 2007, Felix threw his changeup 9.9% of the time.
• In 2008-10, he threw it 13-15% of the time.
• In 2011-13, he threw it 18-23% of the time.
• This year, he's throwing it 30% of the time.  

Yes, F/X has a hard time distinguishing his fastball from his changeup.  But trust me on this one.  He's getting really predictable with it.  (For example, his slider -- formerly his best pitch -- is down to a mere 7% usage.)

Here it is, hit it babe, and they can't.  It's one of the greatest pitches I've seen, right up there with Trevor Hoffman's change, Mariano Rivera's cutter, and Randy Johnson's slider.  It's probably better than any of them.

This year so far, Felix' ERA is at 222.  It says here (here being, "at SSI") that if he would use these 2014 pitch sequences, he'd be a considerably better pitcher.

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Going to the Well Too Often ... Or Not

It's surprising that Felix' change has held up SO well, under the pressure he puts on it.

No matter how good you are at something .... if you do it too often, if you put too much pressure on that part of your game, then that weapon diminishes in effectiveness.  Maybe Marshawn Lynch is the toughest runner in the NFL.  But run him 40 times a game, run him so that's all you do, and his average is going to go down.

This is the critical part of F/X Run Values that nobody talks about.   These are six different scenarios:

• Marshawn Lynch, 4.7 yards per carry, 14 carries per game - EASY
• Marshawn Lynch, 4.4 yards per carry, 32 carries per game - HARD
• James Harden, 50% field goal percentage, 6 shots per game - EASY
• Kobe Bryant, 48% field goal percentage, 27 shots per game - HARD
• Mike Leake, +2.00 runs per 100 curves, 8 curves per game - EASY
• Erik Bedard, +1.90 runs per 100 curves, 40 curves per game - HARD

But no matter how much pressure Felix Hernandez puts on his changeup, they can't seem to cope.  They know it's coming now, and its run value is +4.92 on the year.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's skyhook was not subject to this maxim of Diminished Returns.  Neither was Gaylord Perry's spitball ...

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Dr. D fears that this obsession with the change could lead to bad things ... lack of feel for the curve, or hitters "cheating" so that their bats start within that 89-92 MPH zonewhatever.  But it never does.

For my own part, I hope that Felix will keep them honest with that curve - it is his only real "offspeed" pitch.  The curve ball is the "wild card" element to his attack that draws my interest these days.  I want to see garbage, "automated," cheat swings way out in front of the pitch.

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Randy Velarde used to hit Randy Johnson by laser-focusing on the knee-high eye level.  He'd swing only at fastballs knee high, or at sliders knee high, and he did fine.  The Rangers have done this to Felix, focus on fastballs knee high and that allows them to get under the changeup if it's knee high.

Did you realize, though, that Felix' fly ball rate was way up this year?  His grounder rate has gone from 54%, life, to only 37% in two starts this year.  Felix could easily throw blizzards of changeups if he would throw the fastball UP in the zone.  That nukes the Velarde/Ranger Strategem.

Felix' fly ball rate is up, and as a result, his K's are at 12 per ballgame.  I've been pleading with Felix to throw the high fastball -- as Pedro did -- for many years.  Perhaps 2014 is the year that the bar-press gets his K's into the 10+ range and he assumes Pedro's mantle.

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I dunno.  This is a kick we get onto, once or twice a year, Felix "underachieving" by throwing his fastball to contact.  Maybe he'll fall in love with Nasty Mode and marry it.  If not, he's still all right by Dr. D.

Happy Felix Day,

Jeff