State of the Mr. Magic Closer
How many Mr. WBC's does one team GET?

.

(That's Robinson Cano behind Rodney.  Cano slugged 5.000 during the WBC.  The Mariners also have Hisashi Iwakuama.  And Michael Saunders.  And I bet James Jones hit six homers for Brooklyn.)

("Mr. Magic Closer," a term that Dr. D has used for 20 years to deride the weird ideas that have developed around baseball's 9th inning.)

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White Knuckle, Bab-Eh.  And Lovin' It

You guys know where the scouts sit in the stands at Safeco, right?  If they're not behind the plate, they're (often) back on the concourse, directly behind home, where they can see the ump and the tiny monitor they've got.  Like Dr. D, they keep one eye on the players 150 feet away, and one eye on the CF camera.

The Mariners keep those five seats clear, in case opposing scouts want them.  In addition to the tablets and/or scorecards, they're usually wearing giant badges that say, proudly, ML SCOUT.  Hey, man.  Small enough props for a life's work.  Give it up for 'em.

.........

So Iwakuma blisters the Royals for 8 innings and then blithely informs McClendon that he's out.

Dick Williams (M's manager in the 80's):  never speaks to Iwakuma again, other than to sourly take pot shots walking by.

Lloyd McClendon:  "Having a legit #2 like that is like having your feet in a warm pair of bunny slippers."  Or something.

Give Lloyd credit.  He's done a whale of a lot of things right, too.

......

Back on point.  In the 9th, there were three scouts sitting back there in Row 32, the most I've seen.

1) Rodney walks Escobar on 4 or 5 pitches to start the 9th.  This in a 1-0 game.

2) Rodney throws a ball to Nori Aoki.  The count is 1-0.

3) Rodney throws a strike to Nori Aoki - who successfully bunts.

4) The scouts then, in their likeable, exaggeratedly grouchy way, jump on Ned Yost's backside, Big Time.  One of 'em shakes his head in exasperation, "The guy has thrown one clean strike, and he BUNTS it! [to bail Rodney out of an obvious meltdown]".

The other guy agrees.  "I'm rolling my dice there."  Exaggerated look of disgust and shaken head.

4a) Bill James couldn't resist letting us know, Those scouts in the Moneyball movie were an absolutely genius bit of casting.  I thought one of these guys actually was from Moneyball for a second, the lead guy, the one who told Billy Beane he was "listening to the wrong people."

4b) You listen to all people, by the way.  

4c) The scouts might have been right.  But I doubt it.

5) Dr. D, in street clothes, is standing approximately 24 inches behind them.  He says to his son, making very certain that the scouts can hear him, "Rodney does this.  He takes half an inning to dial in, and then he starts with the unhittable pitches.  Giving him three more pitches to Aoki just gets to Unhittable Rodney sooner.

6) One of the scouts rolls his eyes loudly.

7)  Rodney throws a 96 MPH fastball that Billy Butler, the Royals' best hitter, swings through horribly.

7a) Butler fouls off two more hellacious fastballs.  0-2 count.

7b) Rodney busts out the changeup and humiliates Butler for a K.

8) Rodney gets the third out on a painted fastball, 6-3 groundout.

9) Dr. D can absolutely guarantee you that our good friends the scouts went away disgusted at Yost's strategy, blaming the wasted out.  :: shrug :: Maybe they were right; Alex Gordon was up next.

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Dr's Prognosis

Rodney's super-glorious 2012 -- he saved 48 of 50 games! -- was a fluke.  You ain't getting that year from Rodney.  

  • But then again you didn't spend $40M+ to land Rodney.  You spent only $14, over two years.
  • Rodney's strike zone stats are down - not down from 2012, but even from 2013.
  • But notice that Rodney, a hot-weather immigrant and an old man, was terrible in April and May of 2013 - he walked 19 guys in his first 22 innings last year.
  • Then, his K/BB went to 53/17 as the sun came out in June.

A super-closer he is not; he's an excellent setup man who has been promoted to his level of dubious competence.  For $7M, two years, he was the right fit for this team.

And, yeah, he'll scare you but over the long term, just go with him.  We're actually pretty lucky that he's 10-for-11; now he's liable to go 40-and-6.

And you thought I was getting soft,

Jeff

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Comments

1

Watching him in the 9th the other night, I thought, "Man, this is the guy you want throwing in the 7th and 8th!" Then you bring in Eckersley to nail the coffin shut.
But we're one short of those Eckersley's, aren't we?
And since we also don't have a Green Arrow or Golden Archer superhero, well have to go with our own "Teal Archer" to take us home 40 times a year.
He'll do.
And he allows you to mix and match your hot RP's to get the best 7th and 8th inning mix. Just make sure that Leone is in it, will you skip.
moe

2

Rodney is really tough for me to watch. Too many years of Dave Neihause's voice drilling an aversion to relievers that walk guys into my cerebrum, I guess. This entire bullpen is pure torture.

3

Rodney is a Peter Principle guy, but .... the Green Arrow shtick keeps this guy barely fair down the line.  If he likes the job, that pushes him just barely over the top for me.  Neh?

4

About 10-15 years ago, a wise old Rot-O amig-O smiled gently and --- > pointed out how many "white-knuckle" closers there are in the game.  Take the good with the bad, he sez; the blown saves will come out about even with the richer guys.
It served as a bit of an antacid, since.  "White-knuckle" is kind of a cutesie-pie word for me to hypnotize myself with (yes, I'm serious about the NLP) and now I enjoy the games more.
Take five words' worth of Neuro-Linguistic Programming and call the Dr. in the morning :- )
.........
That said, you know and I know that Rodney's going to walk in the loser tonight.  HA!

5

Yeah, rationally I know that Rodney is really, really hard to square up and that the walks don't come in to score all that often but I can't get Dave's voice out of my head when I watch him pitch. "Throw strikes young man".

6

It's worth remembering that there aren't a lot of Mo Riveras hanging around out there. MLB Closer is a job with a pretty high turnover rate. Part of it is that the gig demands that you live on the outside half of the plate, or off the plate inside. Up 1 run in the 9th inning you don't throw many strikes on the inside half. That's a recipe for a blown save. So you've got a 100% effort guy (no pitch count worries) throwing to the low and outside quadrant. You're going to give up some walks. And they tend to be high-profile ones, too. Rodney wants the ball AND he has a selectively short memory. He's halfway home with those qualities.

7

He's a legit HOF'er, but a lot of times that ruined the game for me.   ::: squeeeeeeek :: fingernails on chalkboard
It had started to fade for me a little bit, until this.  Thanks a Lot there Grizzle :- )

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