Sherminator on Jarrod Dyson

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Nice to see Sherminator (and Asok).  Sherm Sez

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Hey all. Not sure if anyone besides Doc remembers that I emerged from lurking last summer to moan sourly about the gap between the Mariners and the Rangers. Turns out the Mariners were the better team, but the Rangers got all the wins... maybe call that a push, as far as predictive analysis goes.

At the time, my main gripe was that the Rangers had athletes flying around the outfield, while Seth Smith looked like an average defensive outfielder only so long as he was standing still.  After seeing one too many popup drop 17ft in front of him, my former love for Smith evaporated and I started demaning an outfield whose members were all competent runners, if nothing else. It just looked to me like every offensive run Smith created with his diamond hard at-bats was being given away in the bottom half of the inning with legs made of concrete.

As you might guess, the Smith for Dyson trade appeals to me greatly on this level, as does the plethora of available backup CFs. Remember when the consensus was that Martin needed to play daily, no matter how badly he hit, because it was that or watch Aoki run routes in the big part of the ballpark? That was last year, during the stretch run. Nice to know Ben Gamel is buried 5 deep on the CF depth chart now.

Now, in defense of JeDi's trip to Jarrods: Dyson may look, from afar, like a 2-WAR player. This would make him Leonys Martin v2, more or less. BUT. When you look at plate appearances per season, a different calculation emerges. Turns out Dyson creates his WAR in a little less than 300PAs per year, on average. That is a very low comitment in exchange for a starter's output of value. Jarrod Dyson the benchie is a championship caliber 4th-outfielder/pinch-runner, literally. Just ask the Royals how cool it was when he stole 3rd with one out in the 9th inning of the 2014 wild-card game, representing the tying run. According to Jeff Sullivan, that was the most valuable WPA stolen base in the playoffs on record (since 2002). Point being, Dyson may be able to score the winning run in a Paxton-Sale game... but he doesn't have to be a starter to do it. He just has to trot out towards 1st, high five Nelly, and go swipe a few bags.

For my money, being the best kill-shot pinch runner in the league isn't exactly soft WAR. As Doc is fond of saying, every game you win on your own is worth one win, even if it isn't worth 1WAR. Dyson looks to me like he may rival Boomstick for (# of actual baseball games won) *divided by* (Fangraphs WAR). Seems like a pretty sweet weapon to me.

Karns for Gallardo? That's a much less pleasant question. The only thing grosser than Yovani's trendlines is the scraggly desperado beard he had as a Texas Ranger. You ask me, JeDi accepted the dropoff from the Kkkarnivore to Gallardo in exchange for the upgrade from Heredia to Dyson. Will it pay off? That's above my pay grade...

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(1) It had comPLETEly escaped me, that Dyson was getting his 2.5, 1.8, 3.1 WAR in PA's like 239, 337, 290.  Slap me silly and call me Shermy.  That changes the whole question, if ...

(1a) ... we could figure out HOW a .260 slap hitter is generating that kind of WAR.  And what I spaced out on is that I glanced at the UZR/150 column (15 runs, 19 runs, 11 runs) and way disconnected on the playing time.  As you know I'm tremendously skeptical that any outfielder can "legitimately" save more than 15 runs a year.  This dude is doing it in half a year. ... well, hold it, that's zone rating per 150 games, so it's already adjusted...

Benson has Dyson for 6-13 runs saved in each half year to date, so about the same.  Or 12-23 *plays* a half year, with those plays coming everywhere -- in front of him, behind him, left, right, basic.

(1b) So if Jarrod Dyson is truly a Paul Blair-, Kevin Keirmayer, Young Andruw Jones-level defender --- > and a Billy Hamilton-, Michael Bourn Plus-level baserunner, then he is an impact player.  No argument.  Those things would make him Ichiro Suzuki with a lower batting average.  No, that would not be "soft WAR"; that would be Ozzie Smith as an outfielder.  A sweet weapon indeed.

Tell me that Jarrod Dyson is going to save 15-20 runs a year, 450 PA's, with 10+ runs on the bases and I probably WOULD give you Nate Karns for him.  ... it defies credulity, but ...

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(2) Which would leave us only with the question of why the Kansas City Royals played such a player only half the time.  If he's really a +15-20 runs defender.  My question to the Think Tank:  is this dude really such an outlier with the glove?  And so elitely impactful on the bases?

3.1 WAR in 330 PA's.  On one level or another the Royals simply did not buy in to that number.  Doesn't mean they were correct.

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(3) JeDi mentioned, politely, that their internal metrics on Smith's glove showed a major catastrophe.  The eye test does not contradict.

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(4) Always been a yuuuuuge fan of the 8th-inning pinch runner in a Paxton Sale game.  In fact it seems to me that an "ultimately evolved" game, circa 2300 AD, would use this weapon routinely.  What's more likely, an 80-85% stolen base guy or asking the batter to get an extra single that inning?

And with five interchangeable/replaceable OF's, Servais can easily afford to deploy such a weapon.  No doubts here.

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(5) Will cheerfully admit that the M's outfield carousel will be fascinating next year, whether or not it will be effective.  And the more so since the big four hitters are locked in before you even get to the OF.

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Good stuff,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

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First comment on the post about my comment? Maybe I'm the only one with strong opinions about Jarrod Dyson. That's cool, I'm digging the echo chamber vibe.

If I had to hazard a guess as to why Dyson's never been a "starter", I'd say it was a combination of two factors. One: the Royals have been pretty well stocked with outfielders. Last year, Dyson shared time with Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, and some guy named Paulo who hit .302. Of course he led the entire team with 3.1WAR, but that non sequitor is kind of the point of this inquiry. The previous year, Cain and Gordon were monsters while the rotting corpse of Alex Rios was given every chance to show signs of life. In 2014, Cain and Gordon were stars and Nori Aoki was also there, mucking around for 132 games. So, the Royals have always had 3 other players they viewed as MLBTM Starter Caliber Outfielders, whether they were right or not.

Still, in each of these years Dyson was one of their 3 most valuable outfielders, according to FG. So why did he stay on the bench? I suspect that the reason for this, the key selling point of this particular player, is that he was still that valuable off the bench.

He's a 700OPS bat against Righties, 600OPS against lefties. So he's Ichiro with a lower average with the platoon advantage, but Brendan-Ryan-as-a-Mariners without it. You make him a fulltime starter, he wins you games against Righties and keeps his head baaarely above water against Righties.

So that makes it a player pairs thing, right? Assuming you have Nori Aoki and his inverse platoon split, isn't it better to let Nori wrack up his 2.2WAR as the nominal starter, while using Dyson against Righties and as a daily pinch-hitter/defensive replacement to wrack up his own 3.0WAR? (that season Dyson got 290PAs, but appeared in 120! games)

That's one helluva platoon combo, if you're into that kind of thing. For my money, Dyson's ability to impact the game off the bench as a late game killshot pinch-runner means that he's the rare player who can be part of a platoon, but add real value on the days he doesn't start. If you gave him an extra 200PAs per year against lefties, he'd probably parley that into an additional ~1WAR based on mediocrity. Which wouldn't be the worst thing, certainly. But if you find a guy to pair with him, you're really maximizing his talents.

In my mind, he's like a masterwork designation in D&D. You already had your Outfield of Seattle, 2017. Now, by adding Dyson, you have the Outfield of Seattle, 2017 +1 (or +2WAR). Seems like a kewl way to maximize your roster, no?

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Nathan H's picture

I don't remember this guy at all and I've been lurking for two site migrations, now. The only thing I gotta say is...Sherm? Where ya been all my life? Big ups on tone, vocab, argument, example, readability, etc. etc. Stick around why doncha?

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