POTD Ubaldo Jimenez (Only the Lonely)


Grumpy points out this article by Tony Blengino, who gives Jimenez the nod as Best Free Agent Pitcher standing.

Dr. D disagreed with Mr. Blengino on a few things, when Blengino spoke his mind about being pushed out of Seattle.  Dr. D also devours everything Blengino writes, with pico de gallo and extreme gusto.  Blengino is "state of the art" as it pertains to MLB(TM) sabermetrics.  Which means he's better than just about everybody out there, and only a few notches south of Seattle Sports Insider.

More seriously, the philosophical approach used by Blengino is what fascinates.  Dr. D tore apart the chess games of Akiba Rubinstein, of Paul Morphy and of Yasser Seirawan because each playing style was as personal as a snowflake.  Blengino's analytical style is as fresh as a Kickoff Returner Rollout in a snow-spacked Super Bowl.


1) Jimenez opened his own bidding at 4 years, $17-20M per.  Crickets.

2) Next up:  He bid against himself at 3 years, with 4th year vested, $17M per.  Crickets. 

3) Next, Next up:  Now he's talking about a 1-year make-good with Cleveland.  If Spec's right about him, that's the way to go, because he'll pull a Jeff Samardzija in 2014 and then rake in the cash.

Jimenez was fairly strongly linked with the Mariners earlier this winter.  He's a possible bargain, and he's got to be wondering whether there's any money left in baseball after Tanaka.  I mean, theoretically, isn't Jimenez above Tanaka in the pecking order?  At least from the dugout view?


BaseballHQ sez,


On Aug. 22, he was 9-7 with a 4.00 ERA.  He then knocked out 8 straight PQS-5 starts* with a 71/10 CTL, insisting he did so by finally reconciling his velo drop and adopting a new pitch mix.  Long-inconsistent mechanics call into question whether he can bring these gains back next spring.  If so ... UP:  16 Wins, 3.00 ERA.

(Base Performance Index in 2012 = 21.  His BPX in 2013 = 114, over 5 times as high!  Benchmark for HQ roto-targeting:  100.)


*PQS-5, that being a 6-inning start in which the pitcher had more IP than H, as many K as IP, had twice as many K as BB, and had 0 or 1 homers.  One PQS-5 start is a very nice little accomplishment.  Eight in a row is something accomplished by Jim Palmer.

**16 Wins, 3.00 ERA is exactly the projection for Stephen Strasburg and/or Felix Hernandez, we'll have you know.  It would be his projection for Satchel Paige at aige 29.

Ron-O-Vision Translation:  Ron is trying to get out in front of a Cy Young Award so that he can put Jimenez on the back cover of his 2015 guide as a called shot.

What does the Ron-minator mean, exactly, by the hedge?  In this case, Ron means that he's skeptical of Jiminez' upside.  He bids us bid $10.  But he's very, VERY focused on Jimenez' look next March and April.  It would take two or three PQS-5 starts before Ron called you up trying to swindle you out of him...





Blengino is a smart guy to be sure, but I would definitely not call him "state of the art" in the game if what he produced in the game is on the level with what he produces in his fangraphs columns. It is not the general impression I get (that he is considered state of the art).
I do like Ubaldo Jimenez and Blengino's analysis isn't way off base here, though.

M's Watcher's picture

We haven't had a 16 game winner since Felix in 2009. I'll take the UP of 16W and 3.00, but I'm fairly certain HQ wasn't counting on him pitching in Seattle. If Felix and Kuma can combine for 35 wins and 20 games over .500, the rest of the staff can be .500 and we are in the hunt. Unfortunately, that is a big "if". Alternatively, we'd need Jimenez' UP and solid performances from Walker and Pax, or something in between.


Maybe the M's need to import a few Yankee analysts!   Can you think of any?


This is a timing business, as they say. My career is likely going in other directions after the Yankees gig...but still a couple of things on the front-burner, so things aren't certain yet - other than that none of those things are in Seattle. LOL

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