POTD Jason Hammel
here's the deal-io

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Of course, we'd rather have Chris Archer in 2017 than take Jason Hammel.  We'd rather have Drew Smyly, for that matter.  But!  supposing it is either Jason Hammel in the 4 slot with KKKarns 5, or it is to be Karns-Miranda and no Jason Hammel.  Which way should M's fans root?

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LOOK OUT, Dept.

Here is an LL post with the subtle headline "Why Isn't Jason Hammel a Mariner"!  Nestled within ye shall find the following points of order, among others:

1) He has thrown three seasons in a row with 160 innings

2) The objections to him aren't ironclad

3) Fangraphs says to get him

4) It's easy to see it working out like Iwakuma last year

5) He's the best realistic option

Hm.  Not the most compelling argument that LL ever signed its name to.  No offense, babes.

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FAN OF GRAPHS?  AIN'T WE ALL, Dept.

Here is that Fangraphs post of which the above LL piece was a derivative.  In THIS case-for you will find

1) "More often than not you'll get a decent outing"  (be still, Dr. D's beating heart)  (this phrase is, in its literal sense, true of EVERY pitcher in MLB and AAA)

2) Just bake in the idea of missed starts and they won't hurt as much

3) Teams can never have enough pitching

4) Why is Dr. D still doing this piece

5) Wait!  Interesting little observation:  Hammel has been really good in the 1st half, five (!) years in a row, before breaking down

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HEALTH Dept.  wait ...

And here is a statement from Theo Epstein as to why the Cubs shed him.  Turns out that Jason's health is just fine, think yew very much, but the Cubs have to get their youth transition going sometime and they wanted to be fair to Hammel about the cheap option.  So, that's cool.

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TEMPLATE

Hammel is a middle-of-the-road Sinker Slider pitcher.  If you understand Ryan Dempster, Scott Sanders, Michael Pineda, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, the modern John Lackey, or Ryan Dempster, then you understand him - though of course Michael Pineda and Ryan Dempster occupied different positions on the vertical "effectiveness" axis within this template.  Where Rob Whalen plots on the Z axis, you'll have to ask Dipoto.  He was the one who comp'ed them.

Hammel also likes to (1) go up-and-down the ladder, change the eye levels .. while he (2) sells the stuffing out of his slider, "pitching in a tube" as Jerry Dipoto puts it.  So he's every inch a Dipoto TYPE.

Mechanics, in just a moment here ... the bottom line is that you would be getting an MLB(TM) starter in the good sense, a man whose game is proven to be reasonably effective when his arm is right.  Whether that's all you are after, is another subject.

- NEXT -

Blog: 

Comments

1

But you're on to something:  Going back to '11, here are the 1st Half/2nd Half OPS Allowed  numbers for Hammel:

'10 .719/.790

'11 .754/.820

'12 .634/.660

'13 .814/.806

'14 .637/.754

'15 .611/.856

'16 .699/.738

I don't know if that is true for most MLB starters....but Hammel gets creamed in the 2nd 1/2 of seasons.  Which makes me wonder if THAT was the real elbow problem he had in the post season.

2

Thanks for the catch there amigo.  I was just quoting Fangraphs' table without checking, which says 2012-16 the wOBA's were .295 vs .345 or something.  Any idea why their table would read like that?

Looking at your data there, the splits look much less severe.  Which would explain why Hammel was throwing so well late last year in some of those videos.

+1

3
Taro's picture

Kind of just.. meh. #4 starter. Better than nothing, but is probably going to cost more than hes worth.

4

I've been looking at Jimmy Nelson a lot, he seems a lot like Jason Hammel 5 years ago, but with more ground balls. He looks worse than he is on the Brewers (Bad Infield defense for a sinker ball pitcher), and he has more than iffy control, but his personal catcher stats with Lucroy were pretty good (3.61 ERA, 2.18 Control ratio, .251/.326/.390 oppo); it could be that Mike Zunino might be able to fetch a few more strikes for him in a similar manner.  I expect he'd be a lot cheaper to acquire than Smyly, and I think he's got a shot at Jason Hammel's career arc anyway for club control dollars.

5

Does bad flyball luck play into  wOBA?

In the 1st half of '13, Hammel pitched 112 innings and gave up 19 HR's. Almost 1 every 6 innings, 1.5 per 9.  

Is that part of the equation?

6

wOBA is just a Runs Created stat put onto a batting-average type scale.  It uses total bases, unintentional walks with HBP, though it does add in bases per error.  Which isn't going to affect anything here.

Would be weird for Fangraphs to take a 2014-15 luck stat and "average" it over the period 2012-16, but that may be what they did.  If so I wouldn't put any special weight on Hammel's second halfs...

7

...the beta conversation in the shout box includes comments drawn from discussion about trading for Hammel in 2014.  LOL

8

That is hilarious. Almost as hilarious as my assertion in those very shouts that Franklin and Sanchez was too much to give up for three months of Hammel. Good reminder that I tend to over value prospects. 

9

Franklin has not been very good (until this year in limited AB) but who knows if Sanchez would have been.  I prefer to think so.  He may be pumping his fist in response to a diving catch by Halman right now.  Imagine Niehaus' call. 

12

says "elbow tightness" in September kept him off the postseason roster.

 ???

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