POTD Chris Iannetta, hitter
we're rounnnndin' third, headin' for home...

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Originally posted Nov. 13.  M's sign Iannetta ::CROWD GOES WILD::  And how the deuce did we get him on a 1-year "bridge" deal?!  Why would he go for that?  Well, perhaps a .188 batting average cuts into your millions even in the age of sabermetrics?

This will be a mass-ly underrated DiPoto move.

Here's a Times link.

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For the 1983 season, 300-game winner Gaylerd Perry stopped by Seattle on his way out the baseball door.  At the time the M's had a young (and lousy) shortstop named Spike Owen.  Although the DH rule had been around for 10 years, Perry wanted to step into the batting cage for some swings.  Owen started giving him the bizness.  Perry shot back, "What's your batting average in the bigs, kid?  Mine's .250."  Owen hit .196 that year.

Tracing it back, Perry actually hit .131 lifetime :- ) but Owen wasn't in much of a position to argue...

Chris Iannetta has a lifetime RC/27 of 5.1.  This means that if you'd had a lineup full of nine Chris Iannettas, your team would have scored 826 runs per season.  Not, say, 513 as did the Chavez/Kotchman Mariners.   ... Mike Zunino's runs per game last year was 2.1.  What do you think Kyle Seager's lifetime RC/27 would be?  It's 5.0.

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Problemo is, Iannetta suddenly fell off to create 3.0 runs last season.  What should we project for 2016?  Here is a collection of merits and demerits:

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HI - 4.5 Runs Created per 27 outs, .240/.360/.385 slash

1) Ianetta was "unlucky" last year, getting hits on a feeble 22.5% of his balls hit into fair play.  If you adjust that back to his career rate of 28%, he's fine, back to .225/.340/.370 and 4-4.5 runs per 27.

1a) As SABRMatt reminds, it's quite possible to deserve a .225 BABIP, if you're lousy.  That's actually what pitchers do when they hit.  Their BABIP's are .220-225. They don't hit the ball as squarely, or as hard, as major league hitters do.  Neither do old batters.

1b) I'd be somewhat skeptical of that for Iannetta, though, because --- > his splits didn't go down against RHP's, suggesting his batspeed didn't suffer a catastrophic failure, and

1c) His EYE was very good, at 0.49.  Compare Zunino's lifetime ratio of 54:339.  Now there's a guy who might deserve a .225 BABIP.

2) Other luck and semi-luck stats, like HR per fly ball and popups, were NOT bad for Iannetta last year.

3) You do realize that we're talking about 272 at-bats last year for him.

4) Jerry DiPoto has issued a statement on Iannetta, by virtue of claiming him and installing him as the Mariners' starter.  Jerry DiPoto watched Chris Iannetta play last year -- and was privy to the avant-garde batspeed metrics, velo metrics, etc.

If the HI version comes in, and Iannetta has another good season in him, then the M's get 60 runs created out of their starting catcher, instead of 19.  That's the same as the difference between Albert Pujols and Logan Morrison.

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MID - the BABIP falls back in line, so .225/.340/.370 (about 3.8, 4.0 runs per 27)

1) Age 33 is about the age you expect an Iannetta-class hitter to fall off anyway.

2) His line drives were 13%.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  Turribul.

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LO - Iannetta's done as a good hitter, and serves as a bridge to Zunino

Last year, after four years at the 100-120 OPS+ range, Iannetta powerdove ... all the way to a 78 OPS+.  In this town we've seen our share of 40-year-old backup catchers.  Well, John Buck wasn't 40, exactly, but Henry Blanco was.  Guys like Gregg Zaun play well, part-time, at 38, 39 years of age.  Ron Hassey, Pat Borders, Greg Myers, John Flaherty.

If Iannetta really did hit the wall last year -- Dr. D, and Jerry DiPoto, rather doubt it -- he may still have 5 years left at the 60-90 OPS+ range.  You're fine with him at catcher in any case, and you have the luxury of working with Zunino at his pace.

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GRATUITOUS LINK

Here's a Fangraphs link giving the AL Gold Glove to Russell Martin.  Second, in their eyes, was Chris Ianetta.

Enjoy,

Dr. D

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Image:  Keith Allison

Blog: 

Comments

1

Zunino ribs, that is.

This is the new boss saying, "Get fixed kid, in a hurry.  Or it is Tacoma for the next year for you!!"

Bet you Zunino even chokes up on the bat in ST.  Really.  He will.

3

Interesting notes from the Fangraphs Gold Gloves article:

Logan Morrison is ranked as the WORST first baseman among qualifiers. Surprising.

NOT surprising to me was Cano being ranked second worst at second base. My guess is the stats used don't include facility at turning the double play.

Spockish raised eybrow at Aybar ranking as an Iron Glove at short. Helps explain his trade.

Kole Calhoun's ranking in RF makes me sick, not because of Kole Calhoun, but because with the bounty of draft and trade opportunities given to Jack Zduriencik in his six-plus years he was never able to acquire and develop a single young outfielder who could hold a candle to Calhoun's well-rounded quality, this despite the fact that the Angels supply of high draft picks was nearly nil.

4

Doesn't really pass the eye test, but it makes you wonder if he is mediocre rather than above average.  Of *course* LoMo is miles ahead of Trumbo much less Montero.

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Agreed on Cano.  He is a big, BIG dude to be playing 2B, and he ain't young any more.  But agreed again, turning the DP and such is a nice buffer for him.

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Calhoun ... I was trying to figure out just exactly what DiPoto is going to DO!! in CF and RF.  He wants major defensive improvement SUPA-BAD and where's he going to put it?

5

Re: "exactly what DiPoto is going to DO!! in CF and RF."

Yeah. As much as I'd like a defensive upgrade in RF, do you REALLY want to mess with your best hitter, Nelson Cruz, who has a history of hitting better when he plays in the field, and who has stated his preference to do so? Granted it would be better for the team if you could just slot him in as DH and play him in a corner OF once in a while, but what looks better on paper may not work out better in real life.

And per DiPoto it appears LF is set with Smith/Guti. That leaves CF. That's where he HAS to find his defensive improvement, isn't it? I guess the good news is that CF is the outfield position that most influences overall defensive performance, since a rangy, dependable CF'er can shrink the responsibility of both LF'er and RF'er. But if you're going to get more than a marginal effect, you would have to install a pretty superior defensive CF'er.

Best wishes for a successful pursuit, Jerry.

7

It looks like the last few years the months Iannetta gets the most AB's are also his most productive. Not a huge difference in AB's, but there is a little pattern there. Might be a chicken/egg thing where he's going good so the manager leaves him out there, or the more pitches he sees the more locked in he gets. Great roll of the dice by Dipoto, love the odds of a slightly above average C for low $$.

8

One thing I like about that idea ... for Iannetta it might be like golf; you swing harder the more you've been playing.  His power was zapped last year in reduced play.

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