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In the last 15 years, 2001-15, there have been fifteen American League pitchers who struck out 8+ men per game as rookie starters. So, one a year. Whether the league needs it or not, it gets one of these rookies every season.
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| Rook SP | Year | K per 9 IP | Went on to do what? |
| Francisco Liriano | 2006 | 11.0 | Was going to be Johan Santana+ before DL |
| (Yu Darvish) | 2012 | 10.4 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Gio Gonzalez | 2009 | 9.7 | 3-5 WAR last six years in a row |
| (Masahiro Tanaka) | 2014 | 9.3 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Lance McCullers, HOU | 2015 | 9.2 | ... |
| Matt Moore | 2012 | 9.2 | Make Trump money after 9 IP |
| Colin McHugh, HOU | 2014 | 9.1 | Go 19-7 the next year too |
| Michael Pineda | 2011 | 9.1 | Confirm everything you ever suspected about SSI |
| Felix Doubront, BOX | 2012 | 9.0 | blow out his shoulder |
| Carlos Rodon, CWS | 2015 | 9.0 | ... |
| NATE KARNS | 2015 | 8.9 | lose his job?! |
| (DiceK) | 2008 | 8.8 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Scott Kazmir | 2005 | 8.8 | win 100 games so far |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2014 | 8.8 | pitch even better last year |
whoop, I didn't get the right number of rows on there and my table formats are unforgiving about that. So these two rookies over 8.5 get their own train car:
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| Trevor May | 2015 | 8.6 | ... |
| CC Sabathia | 2001 | 8.5 | REALLY make Trump money |
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We should also mention Matt Shoemaker who not only fanned 8.2 men for DiPoto in 2014, but also went 16-4, 3.04 while doing it. And Trevor Bauer fanned 8.1 as a rookie. That's it for the guys who fanned more than 8 per game. Fifteen of them in fifteen years, if you edit out the NPB superstars.
There are a couple of others to mention: Joba Chamberlain fanned 11 men as a rook, while playing "swing man" and starting a dozen games. And Rafael Soriano fanned 9.0 men as a rookie for the M's, starting eight games.
Even if you go below 8K per game. Look at the woeful 7+ strikeout rook SP's ... next on the list is one Erikkkk Bedard :- ) and after him Roenis Elias. LOL. He was the second player in the Miley deal, right? The names keep coming: Zach McAllister, Chris Archer, Yordano Ventura. That's right in order, if you're taking guys with 120 innings and up.
True, out of 16 rookies who fanned so many American Leaguers, four of them pitched last year. With strikeouts up. Also true, though, that guys like Colin McHugh didn't run 2+ ERA's by no blinkin' accident. And what do you think of the quality of that LIST! There's hardly an Anthony Varvaro among them.
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Here he is, last Independence Day, throwing the magic disappearing yakker. Taijuan's great and all, but I don't notice that any of his offspeed pitches hit wormholes on the way to the plate.
And here's a quality read from the Seattle Times.
Bonus idea cloud for the morning. Why, again, is Taijuan Walker ahead of Nate Karns on the depth chart? I don't mean "he shouldn't be." I mean, why is he? Such is the power of talent. Taijuan is a Cy Young winner the way you draw one up in the test tube.
....
The reason we mention, is that they interviewed Nate Karns after the game today and he sounded pretty blinkin' ticked that he was still pitching for a job this year. Can't say I blame him. Nobody else like him ever had to. But then again, none of the other guys had James Paxton in front of them, now did they. K-Pax has an ERA 50 points lower than Karns' and James hasn't even found a rhythm yet.
Well, maybe he wasn't really that ticked. You could hear his exasperation over the radio, but Rizzs jumped in immediately with the platitudes about what a nice young kid and all. :: shrug :: I'D be ticked, tell ya that.
All the pundits say the M's obviously go with Ryan Cook or Justin DeFratus in the 'pen. Generically, that would be the usual thing to do, and by "the usual thing" we mean "the hackneyed thing." But the pundits are not taking into consideration that, in this specific case, we got two Michael Pineda-class battleships at the end of the rotation. I'd let the Paxton-Karns loser take a few innings off in the Mariner bullpen, priceless though Justin DeFratus might be.
I just don't see how a rookie SP goes out and kicks keister like Nate Karns did, and then goes back to AAA. How can you LIVE with yourself.
:- )
Who knows. There could come a game situation where you'd rather signal down to the 'pen to get a 98 MPH lefty, than signal down for a waiver claim. Baseball can surprise you.
Enjoy,
Dr D
1) If Paxton and Karns are both lights out in the spring...and Miley is not...could JD possibly have enough humility to send Miley either to Tacoma or the pen? Note: #2 similarity pitcher to Miley through age 28 is Jarrod Washburn. Sounds about right.
2) If I were an MLB pitching coach and I wanted to have one guy to develop into a stud to burnish my resume...that guy would be Roenis Elias.
That's a great thought Diderot. And we're confident that You and I ... COULD turn Elias into an impact SP. :- ) Sometimes it seems that's what you need to make a name in baseball, to get credit for Fielder and Braun and Weeks when they get good. Nothin' against Jack.
He's not heading there.EArly in the year, as you have guys throwing 5 innings, Karns is going to get 3 innings twice a week, in the bigs. And if you pretend like there wasn't a big trade, our weakest starter is Wade Miley, minus the robot-like 200+ innings.
If Miley struggles in ST, and the young(er) arms don't, what a weird situation that creates.
IMHO Elias + Carson for Wade Miley was quite an indulgence.
But lemme stay in there plugging for Miley. ;- ) He's 7 K's a game with only 3 BB's, he's lots of groundballs, he's a 3.75 xFIP fifteen years in a row...
He does it with four quality pitches, that he rolls out there on a game-in, game-out basis. versus Washburn (an apt comp) who 'survived' with a weird little 88 MPH cutter thrown 80 times a game ...
Miley about the quality of Jarrod Washburn at his best, agreed, but Miley gets there via a far superior route. Miley is as consistent and predictable as pitching gets, and "most of a player's value is in being average" (James).
And he's lefty coming to Safeco.
Me personally, if Wade Miley is 1-3, 7.25 in Arizona, I'm still completely comfortable with him on Day Three. Wouldn't undersell Miley. He's the background scenery on a 100-win team's interstate highway :- )
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It's the curse of being a GM that you do need to bring in J.A. Happ, but then when your young talent blows by him in the fast lane, you've got egg on your face...
On everything about Miley. There is a lot to say for ka-chinging up those 200 innings of 100 OPS+, year after year. He'll get the job out of ST. But if was just he and any ONE other guy on the staff who was ready to pitch in a WC game, he's likely the guy you wouldn't pick.
I know you guys all know, but you forgot, didn't you??: Mike Montgomery lead the AL in shutouts last season (really) and he can't make the top 6, maybe the top 7. When in the wide, wide world of sports did that last happen?
I think it's VERY likely that when you got to the postseason, if K-Pax (e.g.) was in a groove, then --- > Scott Ser-vice would actually skip Miley. There's something kind of 'unprecedented' about the whole M's rotation situation, but not quite sure what it is :- )
As we all know, it's one thing to be good on paper, another to win games. But the M's rotation is incredibly dynamic going into the season. More dynamic than DIPOTO intended it to be. He wanted Miley or Iwakuma and found himself sitting on both.
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Montgomery's situation is also weird, like you point out. But then again, we got him in the first place because the rules dictate that everybody should eventually have a chance at a career. Live by the sword, die by the sword...
Hey diderot,! We're on the same track. I hadn't seen your post when I sent mine in.
I wouldn't get all worked up about it just yet. Chances that all six make it through ST without some kind of injury are slight. Heck, given the last few years I'll be happy if five out of the six make it.
From Drayer's blog:
It may end up being a very hard choice to select one as the fifth starter, but that's a good problem for Dipoto to have. "Both James Paxton and Nate Karns are big league starters," he said. "We won't go with a six-man rotation but it's very possible we'd keep them both."
Just what we want to hear. Hope to hear it again after their next times through.