Mark Rzepczynski, LOOGY
some irrational fears are more rational than we realize

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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT (BLUF), Dept.

There are certain fears that are totally irrational, except for the fact that they are hard-wired into our neural nets.  Clowns make us nervous because we know that they're about to do something objectionable and we know the smile is fake.  Dolls can be creepy because our peripheral vision* processes them as babies but they're dead.  ... with their eyes open ...

Mark Rzepcynski isn't an SSI fave because liking somebody for his handedeness is bigoted, and liking somebody for their "establishment" history is comparable to liking mosquitoes for living in a swamp.  We mean it in a good way.

At a bare minimum, such predispositions amount to --- > roto "microaggression."  Many kinds of prejudice exist, you realize.  One thing we can tell you, left for lefty's sake is a "microaggression" against Dr. D and Igor, if no one else.

No, Nathan, you may not ask me where I gleaned these dazzling insights.  It's just something you're born with, dude.

...

Rzyepcynski's career arc has been:

  • 2009-14 --- > Solid-ish, not sparkling, late inning lefty 
  • 2014ish-16 --- > League catches up to his slider, BB's go up to 6, Rzep becomes 3-pitch guy to RHP/LHP, therefore squishy ... but platoon split disappears
  • 2017 --- > Jerry Dipoto, hyperfocused on an MLB(TM) lefthander, gives Rzep two years

... 

Granted, the RP market is through the roof.  Granted, GM's must concern themselves with stoplosses where we fans do not have to.  But this feels like a waste of dinero on an MLB(TM) lefty just for the sake of getting some Neosporin onto the rusty scrape of your 2016 experience.  It feels good, perhaps, but ...

The good news is that you know SSI will tell you the truth about incoming players... no, actually the good news is that Jerry Dipoto has the chance to get Rzepczynski back to his career peak, also known as "above average" -- plus K's, average BB and good HR.

But that's not where the smart (MY) money goes.   

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LET'S!  Go TO! the VIDEO!  TAPE!  :: berman ::

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VID 1 - Flat, lifeless "fatball" (max effort!) hanging from a wire, or set on a tee, or pick your cliche.  Smoked at Jayson Werth who bails Rzep out.

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VID 2 - Decent-ish short arm slider that is perfectly located for the K.  

The guy does get 8 whiffs a game; we're not saying he is Antony Vazquez.  But we notice that all these vids are entitled "Rzep and Ozzie Smith snuff bases-loaded rally" ...

Pitch 2 was the same fatball as in Vid 1.

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VID 3 - another "Gold Glover and Rzep combine to rob Seager" tape.  HEH HEH HEH

A sidearm slider that breaks at LAST one inch, maybe two.  (Hence last year's search for a changeup.)  But, slap me silly, check the defense at the end.  I got your Micah Owings two way player right here, babe.  One lefty hitter per game and he can double-switch over to shortstop with a ROOGY.

As we all know, Jerry Dipoto would rather have athletes on the mound than guys who throw the ball good ....

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VID 4 - a fastball from a better angle

...

If Rzepcynski is going to make an impact, our guess is that it will come from a reversion to LOOGY.  Back to a 2-pitch game and a 3-inch-thick advance scouting report.  

Not Dr. D's favorite add ever.  But neither is it the most impactful add ever, however it winds up.

Enjoy,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

2
Electrokrakenjr's picture

I wonder if they'll take a second lefty now. If you want pazos or curits in the pen now it comes at the cost of one of Zych, Altavilla, Scribner or Vincent. I like all those guys more than the Scrabble man.

3
Nathan H's picture

E. Diaz

S. Cishek

T. Zych

N. Vincent

E. Scribner

A. Caminero

M. Rzyepcynski

D. Altavilla

---------------------

J. Pazos

D. Kiekhefer

C. Martin

Z. Curtis

R. Whalen 

 

One heavyweight at the top would do wonders for this team. Felix, Zych, Diaz one night, Paxton, Cishek, Kenly Jansen the next. Everyone rested, death raining down from the rearguard. It'd be worth the price to over-invest here.

4

After you account for his fluky rise in intentional walks last year and Steven Vogt being a bad catcher.

If you remove intentional walks from his lines you get:

3.40 ERA, 8.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.06 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 2011-14 vs. 3.92 ERA, 9.4 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.37 BB/9, 9.5 K/9 2015-16.  Why eliminate intentional walks?  Because they're out of the pitcher's control and while Rzepcynzki will certainly require a few, Oakland had a few aggregious ones; giving a base to Manny Machado up 7-3 with 2 outs and the bases empty, an intentional walk forced after Stephen Vogt allows through the wickets, and a game just before being traded where he was brought in to intentionally walk the first batter he faced.

Statcorner shows his nB%(unintentional walks+HBP) consistent and declining from 2012-2015, with last year as an aberation.

And last year I feel largely comfortable laying significant blame at Stephen Vogt's feet for Rzepczynski's, who caught 25 of his 36 innings in Oakland where he had the scary 6BB/9 (4.5/9 without iBBs).  Stephen Vogt was rated the 6th worst pitch framer in Baseball last year.  Rzepcynzki may be slipping in his control, but it's probably not as drastic as last year makes it look.

Marc Rzepcynski does have a couple things going for him.  For one thing, he doesn't allow home runs (which was a bit of a problem for the bullpen last season - 6th in baseball for reliever HR/9 with 1.22 and the Rays, Phillies, and Blue Jays ahead have excuses), sort Fangraphs Reliever leaderboards to check for HR/9 the last 2 seasons and you find Rzepcynski ranked 21st - 0.44/HR/9 (of 281 with more than 40IP).  That would likely be because if you check the same leaderboards for GB%, you'll notice Marc Rzepcynzki's 67.4 GB% is 3rd highest behind another former LHP Starter turned reliever that has solid strikeout marks and a miniscule HR%, Zach Britton.  Certainly, Rzepcynski is a long way from that, but he's in the mold, and if he gets to switch from a catcher rated as one of the games worse pitch framers to one that is rated as one of the best he might just see some tightening of that BB/9.  

And looking at the stats for the Changeup, it seems as if it worked for him last season, 6 singles and 2 walks against 6 strikeouts with it in 31 plate appearances last season.  Judging from TexasLeaguers movement charts the Changeup (+2.32V/+9.56H), it looks to travel pretty similar to the Sinker he throws (+3.95V/+11.11H).  Maybe the .194/.242/.194 line he ran with it last season is a fluke.  In fact it seems like it was about the only way he got righties out, the 25 outs he generated with his Changeup accounted for 42% of the right handed batters that made outs against him last season, and 40% of his strike outs against them.  There are quite a few good Changeups on the team he might learn from.  Anyway, he seems like a reasonable replacement for Charlie Furbush and his leaping pitches at least.

5

And your points have a lot of traction.  No idea whether the catcher & circumstances led to Rzep's 6 BB 'aberration.' The seeds of which were showing in 2015, which manifested themselves in the search for solutions (another pitch) and so forth.  Not a fan of the 'aberration' type of dismissal; would rather have a clear explanation, as you posit Vogt to be.  But it could well be that Rzep is going to bounce back part way, the way Cishek did, more or less.

Personally I'm going off the mushy look of his pitches from the CF camera, first variable among a dozen or more.  It's a template (sidearm lefty 91 MPH) which requires Furbush-type life to the pitches.  In one inning a pitcher doesn't have time to get the hitters unbalanced.

In any case I was hoping for a true 8th inning hoss and/or a LOOGY with no question marks.

Rzep could be fine.  Hope you keep it coming with your faith in him.  :: daps ::

6

Add all the cheap-ish good-ish bullpen arms you can.  Throw them in the pool.  See who swims. 

OK...maybe you throw them agains the wall and see who sticks.   But DiPoto sures has operated this way in two sesons for us.  He'll add another BP guy, or two.

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