It seems like too many people need to learn stuff on this team. Sure makes you yearn for those 2001 days, you know, when everyone had everything figured out and we schooled the rest of the league. But then Freddie himself had a major implosion right after the All Star game in 2002. It was instrumental in speeding our return to mediocrity IIRC. Freddie was suddenly and inexplicably getting rocked every 5 day, and the team began to lose its mojo all through the lineup. Of course, with Freddie, we weren't talking about a 4 starter, we were talking about our #1 ace.
Great stuff, Dr. D. I was wondering how you were going to follow up the warm glow of Tuesday morning's read with an analysis of the kind of game that one usually would say, "let's just forget it happened and move on. It's one out of 162, etc., time worn cliche, etc." - I don't want to be in school anymore, I'm getting tired of school, some of these kids aren't picking it up. Yet you made learning a worthwhile endeavor this morning. Perhaps we'll see a reverse of the famous "Felix stop throwing so many fastballs" blog story develop with Brandon. I know the smart guys are reading you, Jeff, even if they don't always admit it.
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Q. Does Maurer get more chances if it's SSI's club?
A. The first question is whether Maurer's equilibrium has been wrecked. IFF I thought he could regain his poise for his next start, that's IFF ... then absolutely, I'd send him back out there.
His adjustments are clear. I want to see him pitch having made the adjustments.
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Q. Which adjustments are ... what, again? What do you mean, ESTABLISH THE FASTBALL?
A. It's a cliche that, in his specific case, has traction.
ONLY after the catchers see the batters give in, and go into fast-twitch mode -- that's the second time through the lineup, minimum -- does he start mixing offspeed stuff that gets much of the plate.
Next game, Maurer is going to finish with 65%, 70% fastballs thrown. First time through the lineup it's going to be higher.
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Q. And he's getting too much of the plate - with the slider, or ?
A. He's getting too much of the plate with his SLIDER.
He's now thrown 30 strikes and 5 balls with his slider. And most of those 30 strikes have been UP. Nobody's "in between" on sliders breaking off the plate, so nobody's in between, period.
Ryan Dempster doesn't throw his slider out-and-over, belt high. He keeps it at the knees, or he throws it to break off the plate.
Dr. D thought that Maurer had a Freddy Garcia-class offspeed pitch, throw it anywhere you like, to challenge, but he doesn't. It doesn't have that kind of arm action.
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Q. This can be corrected?
A. What's ominous, is that postgame, nobody seemed to have any clue what went wrong. Maurer shrugged, "they came out swinging." He was like, maybe I overthrew the ball.
Nothing about 30 of 35 sliders for strikes, up in the zone. Nothing about high 87 MPH pitches on 0-2 counts, when batters are protecting the plate. Nothing about checking to see whether the batters are respecting the fastball first, before he goes to the offspeed.
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Q. So it's a 2-pitch arsenal you recommend in this case?
A. Dempster uses 90% fastballs and sliders. It's a "simplify, simplify, simplify" paradigm that, in Dempster's and Maurer's cases, does apply. Get good at something.
Maurer's changeup and curve, those don't need to be adjusted; they just need to kept safe, rare, and legal. Those, should be thrown for strikes. AFTER the Dempster fastball-slider game is established.
Dempster establishes his FB-SL game, and then throws 10% forkballs after the FB-SL game is being waged hot-and-heavy. Maurer's CH-CU would fit the same bill nicely.
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Q. Sounds simple.
A. Doesn't it? Pitch like Ryan Dempster. Spot the good fastball, keep the slider low, throw it for called strikes, or to break off the plate, based on outguessing the hitter. Then start mixing your tertiary stuff.
Hey, Dr. D also thought that Maurer could pitch like Freddy Garcia, changeup out-and-over pitch one. Turns out that Maurer's slider can't bear that kind of pressure.
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Q. How do you like his chances to do so?
A. SSI's shtick has always been, at the end of the day, to give YOU the data you need to form your own opinion. We're guessing that by now you have one.
As for Dr. D, he'll gingerly guess that Maurer does have the necessary fastball command (at 92-95, must be "decent" command) and necessary slider command (with that slider, must be "plus"), to make Dempster's game work. (Chime in, Gordon...)
If he doesn't yet have the command to execute that, we know a great little place nearby, for Brandon to LEARN the Dempster Attack.
If he DOES have the command to make those adjustments, I still like him for 2013 and still want him on my roto squad, winning me the league. Kid's got really good power stuff -- I mean, compare his stuff to Blake Beavan's. It takes hard blinkin' work to foul up that arsenal that bad.
That's my opinion I could be wrong,
Dr. D
Comments
Really, he could have got out of the 1st inning without giving up a run. The change was nearly an out pitch and the curve WAS an out pitch. There's some bad luck at play in that inning.
That said, he misses up (still strikes) when he misses.
That isn't lack of out-getting ability, or stuff...It's being too amped I think.
I also saw a guy who battled, didn't give in, didn't lose the plate and wasn't afraid to throw all his pitches. MLB talent was on display.
I'm not giving up on the change up, so if I'm calling a game I'm putting down 1 finger 60% of the time and 2 and 3 fingers 20% of the time.
And I'm putting my glovein the dirt on the offspeed stuff. Anyting above the knees with those pitches and I'm firing the ball back to him with some pepper, as if to say, "No!"
Unless Hultzen keeps going Whitey Ford on AAA AND Beavan throws well, I'm not moving Maurer out for a few more starts.
moe
But did Montero pay no attention the previous night? Joe Saunders shut these guys down by locating the fastball and throwing the breaking ball off the plate, letting the 'Stros chase it. Not by doubling up the off-speed pitch and throwing it belt high in the hitting zone. Maurer doesn't have the "grizzled veteranosity" Saunders does - he'd need a little reminder from his catcher. The catcher MUST work with his pitcher to correct, or at least minimize the damage. The pitching coach can only go out there once. No chance for between-inning adjustments when you don't make it out of the first. Maurer has the talent, but it's a lot to ask to expect him to also have Jamie Moyer's brain.
Maurer's had two starts. One was his debut, and he admitted he couldn't control his nerves. This one the issues are correctable. He's worked with both catchers so it's unclear who he works best with, but either Montero or Shoppach need to get with this young man and get on the right page.
As far as keeping him in the rotation, I think he deserves at least two more starts. There's a reason he made the team - he's good. He's pitched 6.2 innings in the majors. Can you say small sample size?
Was a point we didn't even have time to touch on. But like you say, Brent, Saunders established the edge of the zone and then went off the zone -- including with the FB.
Lindy McDaniel, ol' timey Yankee who has hung around with us some, reduces all of pitching to this #1 most important idea -- hit the edges of the plate, and then go off the plate. Whatever the case, it sounds like we-all at SSI agree on "expanding the strike zone." 30 of 35 sliders for strikes, whew.
It's not like he doesn't have adjustments available.
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I'm glad to see that commenters were sympathetic about Maurer getting over-punished for relatively benign mistakes -- if he'd been chased off the plate, let's say, and gone 2-0, 3-1, that would be more of a problem.
I didn't emphasize the bad luck, partly because it would have sounded like excuses, but in reality that was a factor.
The rookie Felix had batters dialed up 1000 degrees for the fastball, with the attitude "once per AB, he'll center a heater for you" ... Maurer's case seems to be the inversion of that. "He'll leave an offspeed pitch up if you sit tight."
That's pretty quirky. Good catch Rick.
Pitchers are notoriously fragile. Last thing we want is lasting damage to his psyche. No Ankiel situations here, please.
I would give him another start AND put Shoppach behind the dish. But if he gets shelled again, I would send him down to AAA without hesitation and I would leave him down for a good, long time.