That's how I know whether we should move Montero off catcher. It's completely invalid, based solely on my impressions, and when I go back and look at the numbers, I find I was wrong. Nevertheless, it goes like this. In 1983, with Rick Sweet at catcher, it seemed like we couldn't throw anybody out. Teams ran on us at will. It was so bad that when we brought in Bob Kearney the next year, even thought the dude couldn't hit, we could now throw out runners, and I was delighted. For the first time since I could remember as a Mariner fan, they had to respect us on the base paths. If it's so bad so find yourself longing for Bob Kearney to be your catcher, you have a problem.
Looking back at the numbers, I am very surprised that Rick Sweet actually threw out more than 30% of stealers. Shocked, really. Kearney threw out well over 40%. Also, Sweet was considered a pretty good bat, and Kearney not, but the stats show differently. Bob was a better hitter as well. My warm fuzzy feelings for Kearney are completely justified. I even remember having this conversation with Rick Rizzs back in '84 when I ran into him at Harborview hospital. I was there doing software work and he was on a humanitarian visit. "I love Bob Kearney," I said. "Great pickup!"
"I wish he could hit," Rick replied.
"But he throws out base runners. We haven't had that around here." (Rick was the new kid in the broadcasting booth, into his second year as Dave's partner).
The Mariners are getting no respect on the base paths when Montero catches. A huge part of it is the pitcher's fault. But I wonder if the pitchers are giving up because it's Montero back there.
But I felt very comfortable with all the other aspects of Jesus' game last night, and to be fair, the pitchers weren't giving him much of a chance.
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I don't know what Jesus Montero is on any other night. But tonight, he was a Major League (TM) catcher. He ran a good show back there, man, and who was pitching?! Watch a game! If it had been Jason Varitek or Mike Zunino in his uniform, you wouldn't have been able to make a distinction. Not with your fan's eye, you wouldn't.
People are laughing at him and they seem to have little idea why; honestly, as best as I can follow the situation, Big Blog told them to, so they do it. If Big Blog told them to stop laughing, would they?
We can make .gifs of Montero. You can also make .gifs of ARod, or Josh Hamilton, or Yadier Molina. Hey, .gifs are funny. Keep 'em coming.
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Isn't it about time for a bit of balance here, though, if we aspire to be Analysts? How about a .gif of his 3.15 CERA? You didn't go into the year expecting Hisashi Iwakuma to start the All-Star Game, did you?
Or a .gif of the Mariners' team K/BB ratio? (2nd in the league, despite Saunders, Harang, Beavan, and Maurer.)
His CS% is a valid concern. It's also true, though, that the SB total is manageable. They're not running wild out there; the team run prevention as a whole is excellent right now.
If the starting catcher is a fatal flaw, how come the run prevention process isn't dying? Odd that nobody notices, Hey, the catcher's a joke, but we're snuffing runs like nobody's bidness.
It's definitely possible that Montero will have to move off catcher. How would we be in a position to know?
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Maybe Montero will turn into Ted Simmons, or maybe he'll catch 40 games a year. If he does either, he's worth a whale of a lot more than he is as a pure DH. I'm open to free money.
It would be interesting to take a clean sheet of paper and ask the question, at this point, hey, where is Jesus Montero headed really? 'Cause tonight he looked pretty good to me.
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Comments
He's 23 years old and has a tremendous future - thanks for the balanced, objective outlook.
Fully on board with your "balance" meme, but I'm not sure there's a more worthless statistic of catcher performance than CERA, imo.
J. Bench, T. Simmons, C. Fisk, T. Munson, G. Carter.....You and I cut our teeth on those dudes, Doc. I always thought they were probably the best athlete in their school. Tough on the basketball court and the quarterback in football. I'll bet PUdge Fisk was a beast when he got the ball on the block in b-ball. Carter? QB and Safety, don't you think?
Those guys commanded the small space behind the plate with smooth and grace. That I don't see in Montero, yet he gets the job done, except against base-runners, where he is abysmal. I'll run the question by everybody again. Has there ever been (say the last 30 years) a successful MLB catcher with a less than 15% CS rate? Carter's was 32%. Simmons was 34% Bench was 35%. OK..Cherry picking, I know. Those guys were all in the majors by age 20. Montero was nearly that young. Fisk was 35%, too. Foote was 38%. Even Dick Dietz (a dang good bat) was 26%. Montero is 14%. That's 1/2 the league average. Even in the minors it was just 21% That breeds more running. BB's turn into doubles. I think it may be Montero's fatal flaw as a full-time catcher. And I don't see that grace behind the plate in Montero that I wish to see. Heck, on the 2nd 9th inning SB last night, he went to pick up a ball he already had in his right hand. That SB falls on The Bartender, however. He's a jabber....he doesn't flow. What's the Japanese phrse for that, Doc? He doesn't look like a baskeball player or QB back there.
But despite his lack of grace, he generally gets the job done as a receiver (not as a thrower). I think pitchers like throwing to him. He's our own Bill Laimbeer back there; all the wrong motions but all the right results (except as a thrower). I'm becoming more of a convert to the pitch framing deal. I think Matt would tell us it is quite measureable because it occurs so often. Seems that Montero is not terrible with that. But Doc, I think his future is as a DH/1B/C. And I think that future isn't far off. Teams are going to begin to light him up, where they can, with SB's. Catching Felix and Iwakuma probably masks that because nobody ever gets on base.
He hasn't established the glovey credentials to cover his vR weakness (so far.....but he's young). But as a guy who will punish lefties AND can catch, if he had a 1B glove he would be pretty neat. Probably more valuable in the NL if that is his build out, than in the AL. Don't get me wrong, I'm not punting on him. But he needs to be DH'ing more when he doesn't catch.
By the way...just looked it up: In his rookie season Carter, a HOF catcher, started 80 games in RF and just 56 at C. Barry Foote was the Expos' main C that year. I mention that because Carter had played exactly 5 OF games in his pro career before '75. Three AA games as a 19-year old in '73 and two games during his 9-game call-up in '74. Mauch knew he had a stud hoss and found a way to play him, Foote hadn't been bad in '74 and was known as a decent D guy.
Carter was then 21 and his future wasn't in RF. But the Expos used him there to help (even a bad team). Gee, were it only that we had a guy who could help at SS....even if his future isn't there.
Wish we had one.
moe
Wouldn't that be more worthless?
;- )
Why do you say WORTHLESS? That there's noise involved, we understand. But is ERA worthless for pitchers? As Bill James said, "when in doubt, think runs -- runs scored, ERA, runs anything."
We're not saying that a 3.15 CERA, in 20-odd games, is the end of the discussion. But do you think the CERA would have been 3.15 if Raul Ibanez had caught those games? In that case, Montero's accomplishment would be "worthless."
Not just in the % of steals, but also in terms of volume. There comes a point of critical mass. If the fast teams start taking liberties, it could cost Montero his catcher's gear.
They tell us that his pop times are within MLB standard. So you wouldn't expect that it's a fatal flaw.
Certainly catchers have SEASONS in which their CS% is horrendous. In 2012 -
Laird, Det - 10-for-52 (4-for-20 the year before; 2-for-12 this year)
Flores, WSN - 9-for-60 (4-for-20 the year before)
Hester, LAA - 5-for-35 (3-for-24 the year before)
Typically if a catcher has a real throwing issue, he splits time, as Hester has with Ianetta. If they start running wild on him, then Montero will have to play against teams that don't run.
Thanks Doc,
Laird: By '11 he was a VPT (Very Part Time) catcher, but he was still running on the fumes of being a decent defensive guy. In '07, as the main Texas C, he threw out 40%. In '09 as the main Detroit C, it was 42%. The year between it was 28%. In '10 he was 1/2 time and he threw out 34%. Still decent. The last three years it has been 20%, 19% and 17%. He's started 23, 49 and 12 games. It looks like he's become VPT because he doesn't gun guys down very well. He's fading away, and he still is as good, or better, than Montero.
Flores threw out 33%, 27% and 42% from '07-'09. He was out of the game in '10. Then threw out 20% in 20 '11 starts and 15% in 75 '12 starts. All that was for the Nats. He's faded away and is now in AAA Albuquerque.
Hester faded away from the get-go. 25% in 6 starts in '09, 13% in 27 '10 starts, and 14% in 27 '12 starts. He's now in AAA, as well.
Those guys indicate that once you dip below 20%, your days are numbered. Jaso is holding on at 19% for the career. Miggy was at 28% and 31% in hs two years here. He was 42% the year before and is 38% this year. He's a career 34% guy, so his M's years aren't way out of whack.
Montero was at 17% last year and 5% this one.
Shoppach led the league in '11 (41%...after being around 20% from '08-'10), was at 33% last year and is at 38% this year.
According to B-R, of all 40 current active catchers who have seen a minimum of 200 SB attempts, Will Nieves has the lowest CS% at 23%. He's only started more than 46 games once in his career, 65 in '09. He didn't even make it to the majors until he was really 30.
Victor Martinez is next lowest at 23.5%. Seems like he does something else pretty well.
Then you find (moving upward) Iannetta, McCann, Pierzynski, Doumit, Napoli and Buck. Buck throws out 25% and has a career OPS+ of 89, the lowest in the group. But he hit 20 homers as recently as '10 (16 in '11) and has 10 already this year. (27% and 33% CS rate the last two years). Pierzynski has the next worst career OPS+ in that group, 95. Oh, he hit 27 homers last year. All those guys are (overall) Montero's equal with the bat (although he has room and time to grow). They throw out guys WAY better than he does....and they are the bottom rung guys, as far as lasting as a catcher.
Tick, tock goes the Montero catching clock?
Interesting stuff.
moe