.
"p p p"
"PPPa"
"PAXTON."
"Darling."
In Frank Miller's 1980's reinvention of Batman, there's a clever scene where a catatonic Joker wakes up because he hears a long-lost Batman's name over a TV report. As is usually the case, real life is more interesting than the comix. Miller should have had Joker stand up off his couch demonically, slide eyes left and right, glide over to the door, and ...
get beaten down by two hallway janitors. Now that would have been unexpected.
....
Be that as it may, Dr. D is awake and alert, as is James Paxton (albeit holding ice to his lip this morning). First thing Dr. D saw, upon crawling out of his coffin, was a lot of cheery Shouts to the effect that Paxton's new "sidearm" motion has destroyed him. Maybe yes, maybe no. Fortunately for you, gentle reader, the Mainframe purrs on and therefore you have access to the truth. For its processing of this optimistic idea, see next article.
This time up, we'll limit ourselves to a simple heli-description of the lava overrunning the I-167 valley.
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UGLY
In the first inning, with the score 3-1 Mariners, Matt Kemp hit an outrageous popup against the shift that landed where a second baseman would usually play. Not once in Matt Kemp's life had he ever been safe at first on this, but he was on June 1. (Not once in Matt Kemp's life has he ever been on base after getting jammed on a 98-MPH fastball, for that matter.) Dr. D knew right then and there he was in for a Randy Johnson Experience.
... not that Dr. D has a lot of resentment towards Randy Johnson. He enjoyed the Unit even during his early, Joker-inducing days.
Solarte grounded a 2-0, 96 MPH fastball up the middle for two out, one on and then Melvin Upton topped a one-bounce double play back to the pitcher. Inning over, M's up 3-1.
Except James Paxton is like Randy Johnson in more ways than one, and Paxton hurled the ball on one hop off the right-center fence, and the Padres went on to score 6 runs against Paxton. That one double play turned, Paxton might easily have cruised - probably would have cruised. ... we could go through many more such sadness's, but they're not excuses. It's just a General SSI Theme that often when a Hisashi Iwakuma goes 7 IP, 2 ER, there was a play or two early that could have created an alternate univers.
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BAD
Luck or not, the Padres put some WAYYYYYYY much confident swings onto some wayyyyy high-velocity Paxton fastballs. The Pads got a lotta wood on Paxton's heat, no doo'ts there.
Like we said, the Randy Johnson Experience. In 1990, there were games like this -- Johnson would throw a flurry of pitches impossible to other men, and bafflingly, would give up six or eight long line drives.
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GOOD
Paxton's velocity was gasp-inducing. Using a slide step, a moderate backstroke and a "playing catch with your sister" followthrough, he effortlessly screamed the ball in at 98-100 MPH:
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Brooks gives his average (!) velocity as 97.9 MPH (top 100.1). On Fangraph's scale they had him at 96.6, a full 2-3 MPH faster than James Paxton himself in previous iterations. Previous James Paxton iterations were themselves 2-3 MPH faster than other left hand pitchers in captivity. Here are the major league leaderboards for velocity; the first left-hander I see on there is Kershaw, at 92.9.
....
Paxton's curve was okay, albeit the ump ripped him off on the first two or three critical attempts. It had good shape and excellent speed, but was somewhat wild (8 of 19 called for strikes; should have been 11-12 called for strikes). His cutter was plus.
....
So, the Randy Johnson experience. Randy would throw 30 pitches 98 MPH+, and stomp off the mound in the third inning two inches away from killing somebody. But as the scouts chewed their clipboards, they also knew for a simple fact that if Johnson ever pulled it together, he would be THE best pitcher in baseball. Give James Paxton to the Rangers at your peril.
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EXEC SUM
At 98 MPH left handed you have got to do everything wrong in order to give up more than a couple of hard hits. You gotta do more than that wrong in order to give up six runs in an inning. :- )
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DR'S PROGNOSIS
In a larger, overarc'ing sense, James Paxton is the opposite of what Jerry DiPoto is trying to do here.
DiPoto's team has formed a phalanx. Its batting order and its rotation, one through five not one through four, create a situation in which players know there are shields to their lefts and rights.
Under these circumstances, the Mariners can glare over at the other dugout in the first inning and not fear embarrassment. They can settle in to consistent, coconut-imploding pressure over the course of 30, 40, 50 at-bats as the evening travels along. This entire space-time bubble is collapsed by a 5th starter who isn't in control of himself, much less of the strike zone.
Dr. D doesn't say that he would demote Paxton. He merely observes the likely attitude from DiPoto. If DiPoto can find a way to synchronize the culture of his own control-pressurize attack with the reality of Paxton's volatility, it will be an achievement of real creativity.
Enjoy,
Dr D