James Paxton, 6.1.2016
Padres 14, M's 6

.

"p p p" 

"PPPa"

"PAXTON."

"Darling."

In Frank Miller's 1980's reinvention of Batman, there's a clever scene where a catatonic Joker wakes up because he hears a long-lost Batman's name over a TV report.  As is usually the case, real life is more interesting than the comix.  Miller should have had Joker stand up off his couch demonically, slide eyes left and right, glide over to the door, and ... 

get beaten down by two hallway janitors.  Now that would have been unexpected.

....

Be that as it may, Dr. D is awake and alert, as is James Paxton (albeit holding ice to his lip this morning).  First thing Dr. D saw, upon crawling out of his coffin, was a lot of cheery Shouts to the effect that Paxton's new "sidearm" motion has destroyed him.  Maybe yes, maybe no.  Fortunately for you, gentle reader, the Mainframe purrs on and therefore you have access to the truth.  For its processing of this optimistic idea, see next article.  

This time up, we'll limit ourselves to a simple heli-description of the lava overrunning the I-167 valley.

.

UGLY

In the first inning, with the score 3-1 Mariners, Matt Kemp hit an outrageous popup against the shift that landed where a second baseman would usually play.  Not once in Matt Kemp's life had he ever been safe at first on this, but he was on June 1.  (Not once in Matt Kemp's life has he ever been on base after getting jammed on a 98-MPH fastball, for that matter.)  Dr. D knew right then and there he was in for a Randy Johnson Experience.

... not that Dr. D has a lot of resentment towards Randy Johnson.  He enjoyed the Unit even during his early, Joker-inducing days.

Solarte grounded a 2-0, 96 MPH fastball up the middle for two out, one on and then Melvin Upton topped a one-bounce double play back to the pitcher.  Inning over, M's up 3-1. 

Except James Paxton is like Randy Johnson in more ways than one, and Paxton hurled the ball on one hop off the right-center fence, and the Padres went on to score 6 runs against Paxton.  That one double play turned, Paxton might easily have cruised - probably would have cruised.  ... we could go through many more such sadness's, but they're not excuses.  It's just a General SSI Theme that often when a Hisashi Iwakuma goes 7 IP, 2 ER, there was a play or two early that could have created an alternate univers.

.

BAD

Luck or not, the Padres put some WAYYYYYYY much confident swings onto some wayyyyy high-velocity Paxton fastballs.  The Pads got a lotta wood on Paxton's heat, no doo'ts there.

Like we said, the Randy Johnson Experience.  In 1990, there were games like this -- Johnson would throw a flurry of pitches impossible to other men, and bafflingly, would give up six or eight long line drives.

.

GOOD

Paxton's velocity was gasp-inducing.  Using a slide step, a moderate backstroke and a "playing catch with your sister" followthrough, he effortlessly screamed the ball in at 98-100 MPH:

.

Brooks velo chart
Brooks velo chart

.

Brooks gives his average (!) velocity as 97.9 MPH (top 100.1).  On Fangraph's scale they had him at 96.6, a full 2-3 MPH faster than James Paxton himself in previous iterations.  Previous James Paxton iterations were themselves 2-3 MPH faster than other left hand pitchers in captivity.  Here are the major league leaderboards for velocity; the first left-hander I see on there is Kershaw, at 92.9.

....

Paxton's curve was okay, albeit the ump ripped him off on the first two or three critical attempts.  It had good shape and excellent speed, but was somewhat wild (8 of 19 called for strikes; should have been 11-12 called for strikes).  His cutter was plus.

....

So, the Randy Johnson experience.  Randy would throw 30 pitches 98 MPH+, and stomp off the mound in the third inning two inches away from killing somebody.  But as the scouts chewed their clipboards, they also knew for a simple fact that if Johnson ever pulled it together, he would be THE best pitcher in baseball.  Give James Paxton to the Rangers at your peril.

.

EXEC SUM

At 98 MPH left handed you have got to do everything wrong in order to give up more than a couple of hard hits.  You gotta do more than that wrong in order to give up six runs in an inning.  :- )

.

DR'S PROGNOSIS

In a larger, overarc'ing sense, James Paxton is the opposite of what Jerry DiPoto is trying to do here.

DiPoto's team has formed a phalanx.  Its batting order and its rotation, one through five not one through four, create a situation in which players know there are shields to their lefts and rights.

Under these circumstances, the Mariners can glare over at the other dugout in the first inning and not fear embarrassment.  They can settle in to consistent, coconut-imploding pressure over the course of 30, 40, 50 at-bats as the evening travels along.  This entire space-time bubble is collapsed by a 5th starter who isn't in control of himself, much less of the strike zone.

Dr. D doesn't say that he would demote Paxton.  He merely observes the likely attitude from DiPoto.  If DiPoto can find a way to synchronize the culture of his own control-pressurize attack with the reality of Paxton's volatility, it will be an achievement of real creativity.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Just looked back at the game log for his 1990 and 1991 seasons.  There were some real clunkers and some nice games in there.  The same tantalizing promise.

if you'd told me beforehand that Paxton would average 98 on his fastball, 17.18 SO/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 1.87 xFIP, I would have been extatic.  I definitely want to see his next start.

2

was unimaginably frustrating.  As great as he was later, he was just as enigmatic before he jelled.  The Randy Johnson Experience was unique at both times.

1.87 xFIP in Paxton's first start, is that right?!  :: stops ::

3

I am amazed at the consistent heat he brought, considering the ease of his effort/motion.

I've always argued that you roll him out there every 5 days and get a good catcher who puts fingers down and tells Paxton to hit the mit.  Paxton will self-"refine" after about 500 innings of nuking (and getting nuked by) MLB batters.

BUt the investment now, which brings huge returns eventually, is still a fair-to-middling one:  Paxton is a quality MLB starter right now.  Not an ace, perhaps....but with ace-like stuff when he gets rolling.  

Just give him the ball!!  It isn't like Miley is fooling anybody!  Paxton may have secured that spot come Felix's DL remove.

4

What do you do with Miley's salary?  Use him in the bullpen, maybe?  Wonder what is feasible from Jerry DiPoto's standpoint... Miley's ERA is up to 5.85 now and it is pretty clear he is having his worst season, albeit not by a lot ...

5

His ERA, WHIP, and Hits/9 have basically increased each of the last 5 seasons.

His great value is exactly what we got him for:  he doesn't miss starts and he throw 200 innings of  league average ball.  This season he isn't very near league average, however.

I would go with Paxton and not think twice about it, just because you have to eventually get him to the "light bulb" point.  More AAA innings is not what he needs.  it is no worse than a pick 'em bet whether he's better than Miley right now, anyway.

My 2 cents.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.