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THE Q GOING INTO 2016 IS:

SABRMatt marvels at the way DiPoto's offseason cake wound up decorated.  He sums up his own feeling about it:

I would say that JeDi (yep...I went there) was paying a premium from time to time in trade for the privilege of NOT paying an even bigger premium in the open market for the same returns so that he could fill the holes.

Kicking the soccer ball downfield a few yards from there ... another DiPoto grand theme is, "BUY LOW."  Nate Karns, 12 months from now, might easily rate as an SP you'd give a 4/$75M deal to -- but he'll cost 4/$nothing.  DiPoto wanted Miller off the island in ANY case, since Marte's the shortstop and since "usable" outfield defense is non-negotiable.  DiPoto evidently held a bidding war and Nate Karns was the top offer.  

Dr. Detecto gets axed, "Why don't you write more in terms of what you would do?"  One thing Dr. D would do, is get 230-lb. Texas rookie SP's with huge curve balls and 145 strikeouts in 147 innings.

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HQ SEZ:

GOOD - Reasons for optimism:  1) CMD (k:bb) uptick in second half, coupled with big first-pitch strike and swing-miss growth ... 2) DOM/DIS reflects high-floor profile.  If these gains stick, his rising ceiling will make him a target for ... UP:  3.25 ERA, 200K

BAD -  [DNP, coach's decision]

SLASH LINE -  8.4 strikeouts, 3.5 walks (Gio Gonzalez on a roll, or Garrett Richards if you amputated a good K or so)

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Q-O-Vision Translation:

The "big first pitch strike" growth was from 49% two years ago to 56% in the first half to 60% in the second half last year.  That's the leading indicator for walks.  As y'know, Jamesian sabermetrics are about 3-year trends.

The "swing-and-miss" growth was from 9% in the first half to 12% in the second half.  Twelve percent is David Price, Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner.  Is Karns equal to those pitchers?  Don't ask dumb questions, Pokey.  The idea is to try to get Greinke before he's Greinke.  You have a better chance of doing that if the incoming has 9K per game than if he has 6.

But!  Dumb Question 1:  review the below videos a time or three, mostly for enjoyment, and then also to tell me why Nathan Karns won't sustain a 12% swing-miss rate.

.....

By "Dominant" vs "Disaster" ratio, HQ is asking "how good is a pitcher when he takes his Grade B stuff out there."  Taijuan, for example, has a scary DIS ratio; Karns had only 15% "disaster" starts.  Hence the "high floor" characterization by Shandler.

(If you want some idea of just how annoyed a stats guy can get at his old team after he is dismissed, check out this Fangraphs article.  Yessiree bob, this is the kind of pitcher who is good for twice -- not three -- times around a lineup.  Ergo the kind of SP you want to pick up in a minor trade.  Dr. D will buy that fer a doller.)

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MUSTA BEEN DISCOUNTED BY THE FOREARM STRAIN, Dept.

Well, sure, maybe the M's don't image their pitchers like the Dodgas do, I s'pose.  But what if they didn't.  Felix had a forearm strain once.  Some 'a these kids snap the ball off hard.  It ain't like the other 5 M's starters have 200 innings in the bank.  It also ain't like Zack Grienke has 200 innings in the bank.

Nah, what happened here is, the guys in the know, they had Nate Karns as somebody worth havin'.  They also had Brad Miller SS as somebody worth havin'.  That's all.

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LET'S.  Go TO.  The VIDEO.  TAPE.

Selected for your edification:

A knee-high curve to a lefty, Hosmer.  Dives literally into the dirt for a garbage swing.

Here are 10 Yankee strikeouts, most of them off the curve but several off fastballs and changes.  Even lefties can't get a sniff of the yellow hammer.  You were wondering about 12% SwStr%?

The first 2-3 pitches on this vid are merely "good."  But as Karns gets rolling you can HEAR the curve break, and there's a wipeout changeup off the outside corner.  Notice how far the lefthanders miss by.

Dumb Question 2 Dept.  Who would you take, right now, hard on the barrelhead?  Garrett Richards, or Nate Karns?  Why or why not?

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DR'S PROGNOSIS

Offseasons come and offseasons go; Aoki, Lind, Clevenger, Loenydas & co. may create an impression like the "sum is greater than the parts."  But Nate Karns is not a "see to appreciate" used car ad.  He is the shining jewel of DiPoto's maneuvers, the dazzling young SP who would make any GM beam with pride.  

Prognosis, you say?  All James Paxton has to do to win the "competition" in March, is throw 20 shutout innings with 27 K's.  That's assuming he hasn't been dealt for Ozuna (which, with a Seth Smith flip, would bring the payroll back to originally-targeted territory.)

But it's all good.  Bill Bavasi and Dr. D speak in terms of 8 starting pitchers; DiPoto speaks in terms of 10.  Here's hoping that, come March 1, #6 is still the Kershaw wannabe.  In the meantime, the 1977-2016 M's have had approximately four rookie starting pitchers go into year two looking like Nate Karns looks right now.  Four decades, four Erik Hansons and [Kings are special cases] and Michael Pinedas and Nate Karnses.

Drive home safely,

Jeff