As Cameron himself just now argued, the Red Sox are (may be) justified in offering David Price $30M year / forever BECAUSE --- > the value of a postseason berth is far beyond what we ever imagined. And, Dr. D kicks in annoyingly, the value of a team "Brand" is big, whether or not that team makes the playoffs. The Royals have completely changed their "brand." As have the Seahawks and Warriors and ... what's that worth to a jillionaire who owns a sports team? That people look him in the eye differently when they shake his hand? Ask a Manchester City fan.
Anyway, Chris Davis could arguably merit his deal if he --- > hits .260 with 70 walks and 35+ homers for 4-5 years. Will he? Is that what you expect from him, or are you thinking Richie Sexson?
B-ref.com gives 10 comps for Chris Davis, which have the merit of being selected via a Bill James-derived algorithm. Those 10 players include Mark McGwire, CECIL Fielder, Sexson, Nick Swisher ... Willie Stargell is in there. If Davis stepped through the age-30s snow in Willie's footprints, you wouldn'a wanted to miss out for $20M* per.
Anyway, the 10 comps finished their careers giving 7 (!!) more years at a 123 (!) OPS+. Way, WAY better than Dr. D would have suspected.
I ain't saying those are the right comps. To me a "right comp" is available after you have nailed down the essential characteristics of a player, in this case definitely including a left hand bat, fairly nimble feet, a very plateau'y age arc, a .33ish EYE pitch stalker, yada yada. But still.
1) Admittedly, the 2014 looks like an outlier now due to the oblique
2) Several different stats on [how hard he hits the ball] returned to "awesome"
3) Made for Camden Yards (11 AB per homer there, vs 17 AB per homer elsewhere)
4) Slash line: .250/.350/.525 with 40 homers
Hm. The Level 201 Scan does look quite a bit better than the Level 101 Scan did. Boras uses all this kinda stuff better than we do, and it drives me batty.
Still: Nelson Cruz costs us $14.25M per, for three years. Adam Lind is $8M x 1. Kyle Seager, admittedly no Chris Davis in the batter's box, gets $8 - 11 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19. As to Robinson Cano, playing the middle infield he ain't going to need 25 dings in order to net 2-3 WAR. I'm feelin' really good about the RBI percussion section in our Stars orchestra. You?