Both Morales and Morse are good, experienced MLB hitters, and should not be discarded lightly, given the difficulty of getting good FA hitters to come to Seatlle and the fact that Seattle will have plenty of payroll money next year. IMO, Smoak running an OPS > .800 would not render Morales / Morse obsolete, as the DH position still needs to be filled, as does the OF. In one scenario for 2014, Ackley as OFer provides infield depth and allows the M's to carry Morales / Smoak / Morse as a 3 to make 2.5 at 1B / DH / 5th OFer. This roster would allow for injury / regression for the power hitters and give ideal left handed / right handed coverage with 2 switch hitters and a right handed power hitter to offset lefties Saunders, Ackley, Seager, and Miller in the line up.
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Smoak's OPS has already surged past Kendrys Morales'. As Geoff Baker points out. He posits that Justin Smoak may be in the process of making Kendrys Morales obsolete in Seattle.
Personally, I had no idea that Smoak's overall 2013 batting line had skyrocketed so far, so quickly. I figured his overall line had risen from like .204/.300/.350 to .250/.350/.380 or something. ;- )
No, actually Smoak's OPS+ is 126 on the year (!?) ... as Sandy points out, that park adjustment is skewed, because Safeco is now a much better offensive park and the adjustments haven't fully caught up yet. Still, Justin Smoak's RC/27 is already at 5.8 runs per game.
That 5.8 runs per game is overall, for the year; of course since he got back from Tacoma he's rampant. The line over 16 games is
- .339 / .422 / .625
He has performed like Manny Ramirez and, in the batter's box, he has looked like Manny Ramirez.
Well, he doesn't physically look like Manny ... he physically has looked like Eddie Murray. It's been a great three weeks for him, not a "hot" three weeks, but three weeks in which he has played great.
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Geoffy sez that some amigos are "complaining" about Smoak's BABIP, saying that he's lucky. Some amigos need to catch a game. Here, if you don't care for Dr. D's and Gordon's scouting eyez, here is a stat for you:
- 23% line drives
- 39% ground balls
- 39% fly balls
We'll leave it to the reader to reflect on what that GB/FB split implies, as to his contact skill and projected line drives for the future.
But that 23% line drives is on the year. It's 26% since his return from Tacoma.
Naturally, the BABIP will regress to some extent. But .339/.422/.625 is not the minimum acceptable standard, Einstein. And power hitters, swinging the bat well, do have nice BABIP's, you realize.
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It isn't the stats that have Dr. D mesmerized. Matty referred to the Yankee proprietary info that have him expecting Justin Smoak to emerge as a top-25 hitter (!), starting now ... starting a month ago. We assume he's talking about the vicious batted ball velocity that Smoak has indeed had ... which drives the BABIP, of course.
No, the stats are great, but it is the way that Smoak is swinging the bat.
The July 8th game was a landmark game -- like watching Randy Johnson tuck the head forward, land on the front toe, and pitch a single game in which he was in total control of his pitching motion. On July 8th, that rifle-shot double down the 3B line occurred with total relaxation of Smoak's face and torso. But the 370-foot three iron to left center, batting lefty ... the way that Justin Smoak sank his weight on the swing, we've never SEEN that before.
...........
Maybe Justin Smoak is going to regress -- maybe he is going to lose the thread that he has had since he got back from Tacoma. It's very possible.
But after the July 8th game, I have an inkling that he's not going to regress. And if not, he's looking at a Carlos Pena plateau leap. Pena -- a hitter very similar to Smoak in draft slot, body type, hitting approach, early hype, etc -- hit 13-21 homers for eight long years, but when he jelled, he hit 46, 31, and 39 homers in consecutive years.
If you're a Mariner fan, that is a sub-plot that should have you mesmerized over the next month.
Comments
Kendrys Morales' OPS is down from what it would and should be because the M's were forced to play him constantly at 1B after Smoak went down with HIS injury. Morales is a "count on it" 800 - .850 bat in my book. That said, Smoak has indeed looked like a different beast entirely since his return from Tacoma. And it's the consistent, HARD contact, which you point out, Doc, that have me wondering if going forward we aren't going to see someone closer to what was expected of him than any of us could have believed before he was injured.
So the DH in 2014 comes down to Morales vs Morse. Neither should be playing the field much at all - they just can't stay healthy. But both can hit when healthy.
I'll preface this with noting I have never been a fan of Smoak. My original opinion was that his power upside was very much overrated.
MY upside projection for Smoak has always been Nick Johnson.
While I am very pleased with the recent surge - not only in level, but MORE IMPORTANTLY ... in *duration*. He bottomed on April 21.
That means his "upswing" can actually track back 42 games. THAT is a strong indicator of "getting it".
That said - during his 43 game climb, his line is: .297/.400/.510 (.910) - with 7 HRs over 43 games.
So, while *on fire*, he's still only on a pace for 27 HRs.
That doesn't exactly scream Prince Fielder.
But, for me, the light bulb that went on was when I started looking at his L/R splits. They are, for his career, ALL OVER THE PLACE. One year, he's better lefty, another he's better righty.
This year ... the year he's "getting it", his line batting righty is: .210/.300/.258 (.558) -- 0 HRs and 1 RBI in 70 PAs.
And there's the rub. He's not really "that bad" as a righty. Last year, he his .703 righty, (but only .627 lefty).
THAT is the issue. As a switch hitter, (and I know this from watching one of the best of all time in Chipper Jones for almost two decades), it is very, very, very difficult to get BOTH sides going at the same time. Chipper routinely would slump from one side or the other, (and not always the same one). For his career he was 60 points better as a lefty, (but was still hitting .889 from the right side).
I think the switch thing is likely the root cause of why Smoak has typically had trouble maintaining streaks - and also why his slumps have tended to be lengthy. That would also be consistent with why he can LOOK so good with eyes on, while having (up to now), continually failed to put up numbers that match the visual inspection. At this point, I think the issue is one of the maintenance cost of maintaining TWO swings means that "most" of the time, one or the other swing is going to suffer.
I would definitely suggest that you eyes on experts pay a little extra attention to the delta between the two swings. I suspect that over time, you will notice a pattern where one (or the other) swing will "slip" when he's slumping. I would also pay attention to whether his demeanor (clenched teeth) is different depending on the plate side.
That said, his current hot streak (to me), is completely consistent with the upside I would expect from aggregate Nick Johnson numbers.
Even when he's slumping from a side, he can still draw walks, because of his superior eye. But, when either side drifts, the power numbers from that side plummet. THAT is what suppresses his upside HR totals.
Then there's the danger of random chance stringing together (for example) 4 or 5 straight lefties on the mound (while he's slumping as a righty), and the frustration of that (coupled with the break from seeing righties), might well "break" a hitting streak.
The problem here is that (if I'm correct), he *can* hit well enough from both sides to warrant continuing switch hitting. BUT ... the cost of that decision may (and I think likely *will*), continue to suppress his upside production totals.
All that said --- Nick Johnson with solid defense is still a wonderful commodity to have. Looking at what he's doing over the last 43 games, I see a hitter that is likely to run a .280/.390/.440 (ish) slashline.
Your typical 30+ HR guys tend to hit 4 HRs a month and have one (or two in a good year) 10-HR month. If/when Smoak puts together a 10 HR month, I'll be happy to change my take. But, until then, I am forced to consider the reality that all hitters streak and slump and final numbers are aggregates of those two extremes. Smoak's current run is certainly making a case that his upside is NOT the .750 level that his previous (short) streaks have hinted at.
Because Smoak has had some mild success. Get back to me in September 2014 and if Smoak has been hitting league average for a 1B over the next year+ I'll be surprised and finally convinced. He's teased Seattle WAY TOO MANY TIMES in brief spurts for me to jump up and down over a couple good weeks. Never was sold on him in the minors and still not. Hope you guys snap him up in the fantasy leagues, I'm staying far away :) I tip my hat if y'all are right on the 4th or 5th try here.
What good hitters? Morales and Morse? Neither one can actually man a position for 140+ games a year. Morales broke down after two weeks of full time play at 1B and Morse has played one full season in his career. Both are only full time players as a DH.
As long as he doesn't get beaned Morse would probably hold up just fine at 1B for a few years. Morales is great at DH. Who on this team is ready to step into the 4 hole and produce in 2014? I sure don't want to see Smoak there again. The tone of the article was if Smoak little hot streak was making Morales obsolete. I'd rather have Morales/Morse than Smoak. That is just me, most won't agree with that I understand. Ibanez may not be back to solidify the lineup so those 2 would be great to keep around in the 4-5 slots IMO and throw all the kids in around them.
Very interesting post. I wonder if studies have been done on streakiness - or perhaps "volatility" is a better word - of switch hitters. I noticed Smoak's historical splits too and it was hard to figure...your reasoning makes a lot of sense intuitively at least.
In the Morales / Morse / Smoak hydra ... if you can only pick two, Morse is the guy I would toss.
Saying Morse "can play the field" is kind of like saying Raul can play the field. Well, yes, he can technically stand on the grass. But, numerically, he is a DREADFUL outfielder. Per BBREF at this instant, his aggregate WAR this season is -0.4. The team has LITERALLY been aided by the time Morse has been on the DL.
So, first, he can't stay healthy, so if you don't happen to luck into your #4 having a Raul-like season, you're simply hosed.
Second, if he is playing, he's actually helping the opponents more than the Ms, (and based on the bbref numbers, this is true regardless of whether he is in the OF or playing 1B).
Unlike Morse, Morales doesn't really have a history of injury problems. He has the one major injury that took longer to recover from than expected. His minor ding this year is comparable to minor dings that hundreds of MLBers suffer this season.
Additionally, if one actually looks at his performance, he was "almost" exclusively a DH through May 25. (.817 OPS on that date). He took over as 1B from May 26-June 10. He missed a grand total of TWO (2) games when he got dinged up. What was his OPS on June 10th? It was .816, pretty much exactly where it had been before taking over 1B.
Players slump and streak all the time. While it is easy to "blame" any slump on injury, they happen regardless of injury. Regardless, his OPS bottomed out at .760 on June 25th. So, in the end, he had a less than steallar 2 week span. That's it? We're going to label MORALES?!? as fragile, because he missed two games and had a two week slump? THAT is the justification for selecting MORSE?!?
Morales isn't a great 1B. His defensive numbers are nominally negative, both last year (28 games with the Angels), and this year (26 games with the Ms). But, in '09 and '10, (152 and 51 games), he was nominally positive. Basically, he's an average, to just below average 1B ... but playing sproadically likely knocks him back a hair.
In the end, what I see?
Morales is less fragile ... better defensive player ... and younger than Morse. So, what is the draw to Morse?
Homers. Nothing more, nothing less. But, the perception that Morse is going to hit a LOT of HRs is (IMO), flawed. He had ONE season where he hit 31 dingers in 146 games. He followed that up with only 18 in 102 games, (that's only a 27 pace, if he had played another 50 games).
The *perception* that Morse has *a lot* more power than Morales is just plain wrong.
Which guy has the higher single season HR total? Morales - 34 dingers in 2009. (He also leads in most RBI and best OPS in a single year).
what's more - as I write this, Morales has 13 HRs with the Ms - this season - while Morse has only 11. In fact, Morse has been stuck on 11 HRs since May 27.
Both guys have about 2000 MLB PAs. Morales has a .486 slugging average and Morse is at .487.
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As for Smoak. He isn't all that great a 1B either. All of his bbref dWAR numbers are negative. Not atrociously so, but still, his glove isn't a plus.
But, that .365 OBP *IS* a plus. No, he's not your prototype RBI 1B that so many want. I just don't believe it is helpful to lock oneself into a paradigm (your 1B has to be a big, burly slugger), for no other reason than convention.
While I do not believe in the 35-HR Smoak outcome, I do accept the logic that suggests it is at the very least a possibility. In the meantime, a .270/.370/.430 Smoak is a very serviceable MLB 1B. Not a star. But, not a black hole like the parade of sub .700 1Bs the club has suffered through in recent years.
It is still yet to be determined if he can maintain his current OBP-driven .800 OPS. But, IMO, that is waaaay more likely than a 35-HR Smoak showing up. But, I'm okay with that. Most teams NEED a 35-HR 1B, because they are stuck with a 3-HR SS and/or 2B. While Miller isn't a big power bat, he's got WAY more pop than Ryan.
The Ms have power at second and third and short. That relieves the team of the necessity of needing excessive HRs from 1B. Smoak has already shown 20-HR power. He's not Kotchman.
Note: Detroit, which has both Prince and Cabrerra, has exactly two hitters with more than 7 HRs this season - those two mashers. Seattle, at this instant has 5 players already in double digits. Seattle, this year has 108 HRs ... Detroit only 101. Seattle is already THIRD (3) in the AL in team HRs. It's actually not more HRs that club needs ... it's MORE men on base in front of the HR hitters. When you're ranked 3rd in HRs and 12th in OBP ... dumping your best OBP guy on the roster just makes your worst problem even worse. It's not a smart move.
Instead of having my SS and 2B moderate or better power numbers carry my 1B how about we build on the middle infield positives with a mashing 1B? Instead of coming out net average the M's should work on putting a plus player at every position. 1B is one of the easier spots to get some production from. Keeping Morse/Morales is my preference. They can share 1B/DH and Morse can play a few OF games if necessary to get Montero some DH/1B AB's if he gets back on track. If all FA leave the team we have no cleanup hitter for 2014. Keep Morse/Morales and add Carlos Beltran to the mix :)
Another comp could be Nick Swisher at 1B.