To me that's the only context where this really actually does make a lot of sense. While I have not studied to figure out who may be available next winter (and who knows if any of those names is 1) a fit with the M's or 2) willing to sign with the M's), it seems to me again, with context, signing two marquee guys is more than just about the money or the player quality. V-Mart and Hanley are both great players. Buying both of them now, as opposed to V-Mart today and FA2 next winter does a number of things:
1. You trade this year's 2nd round pick for next year's 1st round pick (again, assuming you are a buyer again next season in the alternate plan)
2. You create additional trading depth
3. You capitalize on the Felix-KPax-Walker-Kuma and lockdown 'pen right on time.
Or not. But in that scenario, all it costs is some of your revenue raise from the TV deal - and you're still in prime trading position.
I don't know what the 3rd and 4th order moves would be, but there would be plenty of options. (M's no longer on Upton's no-trade list........he would presumably cost much less than a year ago - whether he's a fit or not I'll let you guys argue)
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"Free agency is a right we earn with hard work" - Hanley Ramirez, via Twitter
"Don't be having your binders fall apart during your presentation. We don't wanna have to laugh at you behind our sleeves and then "out" you posers like ARod and Boras did." - Detect-O-Vision translation
We know how to serve champagne black tie. - "Jay-Z" Zduriencik.
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Q. What is the "state of the art" as to SSI think tankage here?
A. Thusly:
- Can't play SS much longer, and is too slow to OF - SABRMatt
- I hope it's a cover - Bat571
- If it's so the M's can flip Seager for Kemp, I'm gonna be really mad - Bat again
- NO HANLEY. - TJM, a Dodger & Mariner fan
- My big prob with him is the injuries - SABRMatt
- He doesn't just strain his hammies. He strains everything. - Mojo
- I never did like him - Dr. D
- But he is a family guy - Mojo, who specializes in non-families
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Q. Is this going to be a "contrarian" piece? A recommendation for Ramirez?
A. Neither. Think of it as me hiring on as Mojician's $32/hour paralegal, trying to guess what the D.A. is thinking.
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Q. Does the Mainframe /sign off that Hanley Ramirez is prohibitively grotesque at shortstop over the next 6 years?
A. Yes, with the asterisk that there is such a thing as a bat-first shortstop :: coughjetercough :: . Especially if standing between Cano and Seager.
- Terry McDermott, our resident Dodger fan, says that El Nino is getting worse "weekly"
- UZR has him at -15 runs, and we're just gettin' started here
- Dewan's Plus-Minus has had him as bad as -37 for since ... wait for it ... 2007
- The "fans' report" has his instincts at 28, first step at 30, hands at 18, release at 15
- That's more than good enough for me, if not for a court of law
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Q. So by what possible logic could the M's be going after him "hard"?
A. By comparison to Victor Martinez, apparently:
| El Nino | V-Mart | |
| Career | .300/.373/.500 | .306/.373/.475 |
| OPS+ adj. for park | 132 | 126 |
| RH/LH | RH | Both |
| Career vs LHP | .307/.388/.524 | .305/.375/.488 |
| EYE, 2014 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Salary? | 6 x $18 | 4 x $17 |
| Age (definitely known) | 30 | 36 |
| BB/year | 67 | 65 |
| K/year | 116 | 71 |
| HR/year | 25 | 21 |
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It's not like the above table compares Ramirez to Justin Smoak.
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Q. What is the positional adjustment for DH?
A. -17.5 runs, according to fangraphs.
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Admittedly, it does seem odd to say that Victor is our dream date, but you gotta laugh at Ramirez because he plays a lousy SS instead of "not being able to field at all."
The problems: Ramirez has to* play shortstop, and there's something nagging at the back of your head that Victor Martinez is just a lot better hitter.
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Q. Does Ramirez have to play shortstop?
A. At first, these "Ramirez as DH" rumors sounded to me like "Hey, let's sign David Price and have him close."
Proving Dr. D to be as infallible as he always has been in the past, Ramirez promptly announced that he'd be very pleased to move off shortstop and play "wherever there's need."
The SSI think tank is well able to go through these permutations with Brad Miller in RF, Michael Saunders slugging .570 in Toronto, Chris Taylor playing 60 games at SS, and so forth. The one thing we would say is this: it's becoming increasingly blinkin' obvious that the M's love the idea of Crazy Legs in the outfield. Which is okay. They never liked him as much at SS as Dr. D did.
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Q. Is Victor Martinez a better hitter?
A. I like the AL. I like the 1.67 EYE. I like the DiMaggio ratio of homers to K's. I'll take Victor Martinez all day long.
We do have to bear in mind, though, that V-Mart is definitely not Giancarlo Stanton. He is going to hit kinda like the good version of Kendrys Morales, plus forty singles and walks. :: shrug :: Which, nobody is saying that forty singles and walks don't count.
But like Mojo says, Hanley looks like 30 homers standing still. Only reason his HR were down a little in 2014 were the HR/F ratio. The man can rake, give him that.
V-Mart hits better in Safeco, next year. Who hits better when Hanley is 33 and V-Mart is 39? That's the case for.
The most-similar hitters to Hanley Ramirez, going into 2015:
- Ian Kinsler
- Troy Tulowitzki (!)
- Joe Mauer
- Victor Martinez (heh)
- Dustin Pedroia
- Carlos Guillen
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Chase Utley
I don't say that's the gospel truth. It's one set of b-ref comps.
Anyway, if Ramirez is serious about the position change -- and not just snickering at people to beef up the recruiting shtick -- I guess he's the real deal. He may project to hit roughly as well as Matt Kemp or Victor Martinez over the next 4-5 years. Probably he could play RF as well as Kemp could. Certainly McClendon will love his mitt at DH.
Maybe the M's were a step ahead of us. Love it when that happens.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
It turns out that DH'ing is about as hard as PH'ing...and most players are awful at PH'ing. Y'feel me? DH is not something where you can move any hitter in there and stake out his defense and position adjustment and get guaranteed production. Many...many players go splat when they try to DH instead of play the field.
Also - although Hanley is a good human being at home, he's a LOUSY human being on the baseball diamond. He is *terrible* for team chemistry. Many former teammates have described him as being completely uninterested in winning. When he was a Marlin, he once got benched for a week because he dogged it on a POP-UP...routine pop fly behind him at short and he stood and watched it fall in for a hit because he thought it was out of his reach.
He's not bad defensively because he lacks ability...he's bad at defense because he doesn't give a rip about defense. That says a lot to me.
Hard work, Hanley - really? You think you earned your free agency with hard work? When was the last time anyone ever attached that label to you?
I think Matt's right that DH is harder than it looks and in part because of that Hanley plays short if you get him. A lot of what makes him special is that he does play SS. But he really truly is a dreadful SS. That said, he was the main SS on a division winner. He can hit and the M's need hitters. We've seen plenty of O-first middle infielders on elite teams - Deter, being the most obvious example, but also Peralta when with the Tigers.
I'd be more than a little concerned about the pretty limited range overall of the infield, but maybe you're right, Doc. There's a case for him. FWIW, I'm not a Dodger fan at all. I live in LA but have hated the franchise since I was a wee Yankee fan in the Berra era.
That might be willing to move to 1b/dh. Came to the conclusion that all of their markets would include enough teams wanting them at 3b that the scenario was just too unlikely. Not so with Ramirez it seems. I like Morrison and all but Hanley at 1b being a possibility there makes more sense to me than moving the 2 young SS all around because the upside of Morrison at first doesn't seem as high as either Miller or Taylor at SS. Hanley 1b, V-Mart DH basically adds versatility to your DH, if presuming that Hanley could play anywhere in the infield with Martinez taking 1b that day. Probably better as just an injury backup situation than a plan to use much during the season but that's a part of what I was thinking with a 3b at 1b.
The bigger question to me is whether he'd be closer to his 2012 .257/.322/.437/.759 or his 2013 .345/.402/.638/1.040 after transitioning to the AL and the Safe. My bet would be closer to 12.
SS for 1-2 years, with Chris Taylor backing up (a de facto job share) followed by a shift to 1B/OF/DH, is the most I'd personally go.
You raise another good point: DH would keep his legs fresher, but who knows whether he'd take to it. He does have a 333/400/500 record there in 60 PA's, so a good first two weeks, as it were.
......
My bad. How about "on-site Dodger reporter"? :- )
Ramirez at 1B, with LoMo in RF and a real bat at DH ... the kids job-sharing ... that permutation works for me bro ....
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There are hitters like that, guys who are 100 OPS+ one year and 145 the next, seemingly their whole careers. I think the Dodgers have the market cornered on them. No idea what to do with them, but take their career averages -- Ramirez' 300/370/500 is the end result of over 5,000 PA's.
I would gingerly predict Ramirez to "learn" how to perform more consistently, since his comps have tremendous careers after age 30. Ryne Sandberg, for instance, had a similar career shape:
Big start
3 years of "disapppointing" average/solid production right in his prime (26-28)
Followed by 4 years of his best HOF production
The age-arc's shifted towards youth for Ryno, but it's an example of the kind of player who has doldrums through his prime and then goes nuts until he loses his physical skills.
Reasonable questions here posed about a position shift for him (at least at some point), his effort at short, his willingness to win, and his impact on a clubhouse. I know the answers to zero of these.
But if the first step in the process is deciding to pursue him...and the last step is making a formal offer...I can't believe that a middle step does not occur that consists of this:
--Lloyd sits down across a table from him for two hours +.
Depending on what happens then determines whether that last step ever occurs. No matter what words Hanley uses, I think Lloyd decides whether he wants him on his team on a much more intuitive basis.
He's pretty bad out there, and it's hard to escape the conclusion that trying to be an outfielder was a contributing factor to his seemingly endless leg injuries while he was in Miami. He should only be out there on a very occasional basis if at all.
Lloyd's intuitive baseball judgment is maybe my favorite thing about the Mariners. If he says that Hanley is pretty darn good, or better, then the Mariners should sign him. However, we shouldn't expect Lloyd to say a free agent is tremendous as a prerequisite to signing, as that would mean that the Mariners wouldn't sign any free agents.
Here's the McClendon I'd like to see to be sure that Hanley is a go. . .
"Hanley is a tremendous young man with a pretty darn good power bat. He is the sort of hitter who is not going to miss on horse (manure) pitches. People talk about Hanley's injury history, but injuries are part of the game. With scheduled rest, he should be pretty good. He's interesting at shortstop."
Wouldn't let Lloyd make the decisions.
But I would give him veto power.
That was good :- )