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If you hadn't caught it yet, Eno Sarris just published an analysis that says Drew Smyly might have figured out how to bring his homer rate down. In the spirit of inter-blog detente, we'll leave alone the article's assertion that the saber writer was key to Smyly's second half, havving informed Smyly that he shouldn't throw down-and-in to left hand hitters ... :- )
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1) LOCATION - Smyly's 2016 homer rate was double against lefties in the first half, because he was missing into their wheelhouses. "After the interview" he moved from low-in to middle-up and the lefties stopped tattoo'ing him.
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2) MOVEMENT - Sarris floats the idea that as Smyly's curve ball breaks more armside, it's more effective. There are interesting .gif's here.
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3) STRIKEOUTS - And here's an April 2016 article from Jeff Sullivan, "Drew Smyly Is a Strikeout Machine." If you splice the two articles, you wind up with some common ground: it's better to throw a high fastball middle-up, and be sure to get it high enough, than it is to just heave it out-and-over ("over" the outer third where the batter can extend his arms).
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DR'S DIAGNOSIS - It's important to remember that -- despite having been in the AL for five years now -- Smyly is still only 27 years old. He's younger than James Paxton, younger than a lot of guys who jell and put their best seasons together. The money quote from Sarris' latest article was:
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... the pitcher was focusing on consistency. “One game, I’ll leave a couple pitches up,” he said in July. “The next game, I’ll be behind a hitter or two. The next, I’ll pitch really good and just give up one big hit."
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Um, yah. The difference between a 7-inning, 1-run game and a 7-inning, 4-run game is often just the difference between a skyball going 300 feet, or going 320 feet and clearing the foul pole. Thirty years ago, a batter in a slump would say "I just need a few hits to fall in"; nowadays the pitching equivalent is "I just left a couple pitches up."
Smyly's a young guy and that little smidge of pitchability is what he's after. If he stays healthy, his best years are in front of him.
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=== SULLY'S BACK ===
And he had a chat on Jan. 13th. It includes a remark on the Vogelbach-Montgomery trade, among various and sundry questions he got from Seattle fans that day - Diaz, Smyly (several times), Dyson, the outfield, etc. Did you hear that bit about the Cubs going with 6 SP's including Montgomery? A few other cute lines:
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| 9:09 |
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: How often did you think about Mike Trout while on vacation?
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| 9:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: Not once
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| 9:09 |
Jeff Sullivan: but thanks to hostel wifi, I did end up thinking about Yovani Gallardo while on vacation, which was unfortunate
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| 9:24 |
Cody: What do you think of the recent Mariners moves? Do you think they can contend with Houston for the AL West?
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| 9:25 |
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners right now are probably the No. 1 AL wild-card team. I don’t exactly understand the Gallardo move, but when you look at the roster overall, there’s greatly improved depth and defense. I liked the Smyly get. I see the Astros as still a few games superior, but that difference would be pretty easy to erase, even just based on luck alone
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Enjoy,
Dr D
Nice 'put :-) That should keep things in perspective re: JeDi's frame of mind and sense of priorities. Hitching his wagon to these particular stars is, I would think, a pretty bold statement as to what he thinks about where they are in their careers--clearly he doesn't think they've peaked, and he DOES think they've got plenty of UP years left.
When it's looked at as the last move in thay trade sequence instead of the first. Gallardo being counted on as a steady 4 so that we might find a decent 5 in the AAAA draws at the deck? That's scary but not terrible. But gallardo as your 5 with a short leash? That's awesome. There's not alot of teams with former recent aces as their 5. Plus now the AAA pIle becomes actual depth and can step in if he fails instead of being counted on as the 5 themselves. The rotation is solid at a glance and looks pretty great if you squint. Plus the outfield should save lots of runs so the staff will only look better.
and safe to say I'll be paying more attention to our Tacoma starters than I have before
How many (plus Neidert) look capable of someday pitching in a Mariner's rotation?
28 who's already thrown a successful full season. Whalen could probably also, plus he's only 22 and stuck out over a dude an inning last year. Povse and Moore could also make appearances this year, and I imagine atleast one of Povse Moore and Whalen should be a staple in the coming years. Neiderts still a while off but he's been good so far at every stop. Not many strikeouts yet but he's got a plus fastball and solid command. So I think it's fair to think atleast one of them will be full time rotation pices in the future, with the possibility of 2 or 3 if they pan out. Which is unlikely but possible.
Ha! That's a pretty low bar, man. Considering some of the stiffs we saw pitch for the M's last year, I would say that they are ALL capable of pitching in the Mariner rotation. I mean, Joe Wieland and Adrian Samson got starts in Seattle last year. Wade LeBlanc got 8 starts.
We had basically one guy as depth last year...Montgomery. And we traded him.
So...now we have like six guys as depth...all of whom are notably better than LeBlanc, Sampson, Wieland, etc.
on starters in the organization--any level (i.e., highest ceiling regardless of when they might arrive)?
Obviously outside MLB level.
If you had just asked me what my depth chart was for non-MLB (non-top-five) SPs in the system based on expected net value (for which we place a heavy thumb on the scale toward likelihood of success, not just ceiling)...
I'd say:
1) Max Povse
2) Andrew Moore
3) Ariel Miranda
4) Chris Heston
5) Rob Whalen
6) Nick Niedert
If you to look only at upside...
1) Andrew Moore
2) Max Povse
3) Nick Niedert
4) Ariel Miranda
5) Rob Whalen
6) Chris Heston
That is a very nice bump up for Gar...and a sign of hope that justice will one day be done.
Dude was so underrated in his day...he was probably the third-best position player of the 1980s.
Rock Raines was a tremendous ballplayer, wasn't he. There was a year or two or three where I felt he was the best player in the game. From '82-'87 he was a tremendous bat, on base more than 40% of the time ANd he was stealing 70 bases a season. Oh, he was a 50+ XB hit guy, too.