Dr. D's Opinions on Leonys Martin
You're Adam? I'm the designated athlete. Hey bro, howzit.

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If you want the "primers" on Leonys Martin, see the Tacoma News Tribune and Lookout Landing. They've got good stuff.  If you want the bottom line, check SSI.  As you know, we live to serve.

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Q.  Is Leonys Martin going to be a Mike Zunino-bad hitter in 2016?

A.  I would peg him at 3.0 or 3.5 runs per 27 outs, which is about where you would put James Jones given a fair chance next year.  The Rangers probably feel like that, too, that Jones is a wash for Martin.  Not that this would be where we're going with this POTD.

Zunino?, you say.  He just mucked through a 2.1 runs per game season.  Zuumball had the perfect storm of bad baseball hit him, so nobody's going to look like that.  Then again, James Jones never looked like Zuumball did, either.

DiPoto led off with "Martin was unlucky last year" and "he's healthy now," referring to the bum wrist Martin played with last y'ar.  But he also acknowledged that Martin's contributions will come with the glove and on the bases.  This guy is your 8 hitter.  He's not going to be good enough to bat 9th.

Sabermetric forecasting (if there even is such a thing) is all about TRENDS across years.  Martin's eye ratio, his BB:K of 0.23, is (1) terrible and (2) descending.  For a 27-year-old player that ain't cheery, and so neither is Dr. D. 

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Q.  Is he an elite baserunner?

A.  Yeah, I think so.  His speed scores are colossal.  Let's see 30 drag bunts this year and he'll get hits on 15 of them.  :: shrug ::

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Q.  DiPoto emphasized that The Edgar will get the very best Martin has in him.

A.  Tomorrow's news today, babe.

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Q.  Is Martin a truly elite centerfielder?  

A.  Dr. D will vote "yes," but bear in mind that the Rangers voted No.  They just coughed him up in return for a RELIEF pitcher, a very ordinary relief pitcher.  You ain't going to get Jackie Bradley Jr. for that.  Nor will you get JBJ for five times that.

If:

  • Martin's arm could put him on a box of Wheaties -- meaning his range doesn't even NEED to be above average for a +15 UZR -- and
  • He's one of the fastest men in baseball, which is the essence of OF defense (especially in Safeco) and
  • If nobody questions his jump, and
  • If Jerry DiPoto is hanging his career :- ) on Martin's glove

Well, here at SSI let's grant that he's an impact glove in CF.  Move on.

With bullet point #4, we're referring to DiPoto's advertisement of his "run prevention model," his assessment that the whole thing wrong with Jack Z was that the M's weren't athletic enough, and ... wait for it ...

We are left with the delta between Leonys Martin and Austin Jackson being 100.00% of the entire "get athletic" movement on the 2016 season.  A sense of proportion here will leave you in doubt about the whole propaganda* campaign.

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Q.  Propaganda?

A.  Just kidding.  Half.  But DiPoto took some swipes at the Jack Cust Mariners, and this delta in center field ain't a lot to show for it.

Ahhhhh .. wasn't it Leonydas, King of the Spaldings who warned the Astros?    

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If you fill the sky with fly balls, I will catch them in the shade
If you fill the sky with fly balls, I will catch them in the shade

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Gotta admit it.  I'd have made blamed sure to get a glove specialist for center field too.  Really woulda.

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Q.  If the bottom line is WAR, then what difference does it make how you get your 2 WAR in center field?

A.  If the bottom line were WAR, then it would not matter.  Like we been weeping and wailing for ten years at least, WAR can be off.  Way off.  There are 2-WAR players who are worth 6 WAR, such as Nelson Cruz.

Sudden thought.  Perhaps players with very, very specialized skill sets are the easiest way to "break" WAR.  They warp the game around them, kind of like Star Trek comet trails behind starships?

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Q.  Do you platoon him?

A.  Dr. D instantly platoons Martin, even if that means giving the 25% portion to Shawn O'Malley.  Didn't sound like they were planning on it, but come end of April and Martin is batting .198, it's going to be real easy to write a Lloyd McClendon "non-platoon" move into the lineup twice a week.  So, if Martin's OPS+ is 65ish, just pencil :- ) in the platoon.  And that's fine.

Scott Servais is of course sofistikated enough to skip the platoon when Taijuan or K-Pax is going, and sofistikated enough to use it when you're in a small park.

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Edit to add, now we see that Keith had shouted

Lots to like in Martin, especially his +2 dWAR glove/range. A word of caution, however, he's a candidate for platooning. His career OPS vR is .703 (.573 last year) but is only .582 vL. That is dismal dismal-ness. If Guti could cover CF again you would have a terrific marriage.

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Q.  What do you make of the fact that DiPoto cast the starting OF as Smith/Guti, Martin, and NELSON CRUZ?

A.  SSI had asked this question the day DiPoto was hired, whether he would have the political capital to "bench" Nelson Cruz.  

On the other hand, DiPoto just recited our rotation without referring to Hisashi Iwakuma, so he coulda meant "at the moment Cruz is the RF."  And the word is that we should "buckle up for the week."  When the M's sign Jason Heyward, Dr. D will be all too happy to recant all this shtick :- )

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Q.  How much are you going to miss Tom Wilhelmsen?

A.  As a reliever, not much.  Somebody starts that dude, they're going to be really glad.  But as 4-walk relief pitchers go, he was prettier to watch than he ever was in the W-L column.

But is this an experiment or a commitment?  They're not married to this guy.  If Leonys Martin's bat goes er, stays South, at the cost of Wilhelmsen and James Jones, the M's can afford to shed Leonys Martin whenever they want.  DiPoto said it's a buy-low situation and "frankly that's when you acquire guys."  Since they can swap out for Boog or "other," and since Leonydas could become their UZR rainmaker, it is a sound risk.

Be Afraid,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

1

As I Shouted, I'm totally in on the platoon.  .583 guys don't excite me.  Brendan Ryan ran about a .600 in '11 and '12 for the M's, and even with his glove that was pretty depressing.  Doc, I remain unconvinced that "Get Athletic" DiPoto is going with Smith and Cruz in the corners 80+ times a year.  But I do think that Cruz gets a whole bunch of RF starts.  Hey, he just finished wearing a red and blue cape for a whole year.  I remember Jim Croce singing something about not tugging on that cape.   I would add, "And you don't mess around with Nelson!!" Now, it is possible that you run Cruz out into the OF for lefties only, when Smith sits.  Maybe 45 RF starts keeps Superman happy!

2

And re: the OF, DiPoto did say "we're beginning to see the semblance of an OF" or something just about like that.  So if he DOESN'T give us our coveted 5.5 RC/27 immigrant, that's what we get to call these guys in April.  "The Semblance of an OF went 2-for-15 tonight."

Would certainly agree that Cruz has 'earned' a portion of 2016 glove time.  Hey, at least this ain't the NBA, right?

3

How many can we carry?

Two in left for the platoon. Martin. Cruz, part time.  That's four.

Someone needs to be on the roster to either platoon or spell Martin in center.  Not from the above.  So Robertson?  Powell?  Either way, that's five.

But neither of these last two seems like the regular right fielder that Dipoto desires.  So that takes us to six?  

Taylor backs up three infield positions.  But do we also need a backup for first?  And of course, the second catcher.  

Things seem to be getting a little crowded on the bench--unless Parra/Ozuna/whomever comes in with the ability to play center and replace Robertson/Powell in this exercise.  

4

If your next OF were a Bradley Jr / Pillar type and you played him in RF, next to Leonydas, then BAM there's the Royals West that you were hoping for.  But as you say Diderot, that leaves the Q "who backs up 1b."  Chris Taylor, apparently.  But even there you are left with exposure problems after pinch hitting.

An interesting roster Q here.  No way we could hope that Anthony Bass allows us one less pitcher?

5

Why not?  Well, except for the fact that his CF D #'s weren't all that impressive in '12-'13.  But he was unhealthy then. 

If you platoon Smith (a given) AND Martin (desired) then you need 5 guys (regardless of who is in RF), because you play those platoon partners at the same time.

If your RF isn't Cruz and is capable of playing some CF (it helps if he is a RH bat), then you have a 4.5-Man rotation in the OF if you give Cruz some (but just some) starts.

If Guti ISN'T a CF option, then you need another guy go and pick it out there.  O'Malley? OK.  A bench of O'Malley, Taylor, a catcher and Montero is a bit flexible.

Dan Robertson as OF #4.5?  OK...he platoons well with Martin, as he has a career (151 PA's) vL #'s of .299-.356-.372.  DiPoto likes something there.  But he's only had 33 CF starts (4 MLB/29MiLB) last year.  DiPoto got him for some reason...but I don't think it was THAT reason.  Insurance, I think.

Flores is still out there.  And a decent bat.  But not likely our CF 45 times a year.  Plus he bats from the same side as Martin.

But if you trade Smith, well then.....

The Boog doesn't answer the bell unless he's your LF and backup CF.  But you have to let Smith go to do that, really.

Of the guys we have in Tacoma, does Kivlehan have the CF chops to survive 45 starts out there?  He would add flexiblity as he had starts at all three OF positions AND 1B AND 3B.  And he's a RH bat.  You could easily sub him in for O'Malley in the bench above.  Something I would applaud, btw, and I like O'Malley.  

Of all the guys we're likely to keep, Montero is the most limited in that he plays only one position, 1B.

DiPoto is right.  There is another OF move.  It is likely an addition. yet it could possibly be a subtraction.

BTW, no contract announcement on Ianetta yet (or have I missed something).  Issues?

And the more I think about it, I think the Martin trade fell into DiPoto's lap.  It was unanticipated but he was willing to get on board early.  My bet, anyway.

 

6

As you imply in your first sentence Moe ... the M's in 2015 made a tacit statement that Guti is not to be considered for CF.

But we'll see how rigid that opinion really is, if the final OF is an RF/1B type.

Would like to see the Think Tank scramble if DiPoto actually signs a big-bat DH...

7

I think I remember Blowers saying a couple times that Guti's legs wouldn't let him play center anymore.

I could be wrong...but in any case, Martin is going to need some releif.  If Parra were RH, I'd bet it would be him.  

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