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Q. So when are you going to stop riffing about March players before you've ever seen them.
A. If Dr. D ever does it again, STOP HIM. Next March just go "Have you seen this guy yet?" ... and of course he'll Pshaw out of it, but still.
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Q. What's your excuse?
A. The mainframe grokked only a 1-in-20 chance that Roach's actual pitches would defy his performance. But that's like when my 20th-level D&D paladin had a save at +6 to avoid disintegration. 2-20, live. 1 in 20, die. You can guess the dice roll.
If we cannot fail those "roll 2 on a d20 to live" saves, we wither and die :- ) ... hold it. When we do fail them we die with no wither allowed ... you know.
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Q. Back to the subject?
A. We rolled the Rockies tape from Thursday and Roach came in and we smiled and Roach threw a fastball and we went WHAAAAAaaaaat's THAT? Is he using a real baseball?
Second pitch, he did exactly the same thing: 89 MPH swerveball that dropped straight down like an Allen wrench. Thrown from over the top no less. We ran over to fangraphs ... groundball ratio for Roach? 68%. LOL! Nice going Dr. D.
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Q. So you have a 3-strikeout straight up sinkerball pitcher who lives to tell the tale? How many starters are there in the bigs like that?
A. At any given time ... one? Two? Justin Masterson threw like that. Chien-Ming Wang. Can't think of a third guy who had nothing but an Allen-wrench-shaped sinker. You AARP guys remember Randy Jones of the Padres?
Don't get me wrong. Not selling Roach as a big league star. But if he can throw that pitch, he's juuuuuust fine, thank you very much.
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Q. How does a change curve fit in, as a means to keep the batters honest, in this "one if by land, two if by sea, three if the ball is batted underground" scenario?
A. In that specific context, it works fine. Chien-Ming Wang used 70+ MPH pitches to freeze hitters. They get so dialed in on trying to swing under that dastardly sinker. Visually, the same thing happened to Roach's victims on Thursday. It's kind of like a knuckleballer with an 87 MPH fastball he throws twice an inning.
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Q. Can RELIEVERS make that work?
A. Chien-Ming Wang woulda been a star as a reliever. Same with Masterson. Last year, the RPs with super-high groundball rates and low K's were ... Brad Ziegler, Jake Petricka, Jared Hughes, Ryan Webb ... every blinkin' one of 'em with ERA's like 1.85, 2.28, 3.20 and etc. Oh! the 1.85 reminds you of Billy Swift. Well, it reminds some of us of Billy Swift.
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Q. Does the F/X back this up?
A. It showed Roach's average sinker as 4" vertical relative to vacuum, compared to the usual 5" - 8". But that doesn't do justice to the late break. From the CF camera it looked like a spitball. Honestly, I remember Gaylerd Perry's spitter. The pitch looked like that. Downhill pitch, medium firm velocity, accelerating in its sink.
The hitters' reactions did zero to contradict this CF impression. Again, not saying Roach is a star, but can he use 70% groundballs and 0 walks to get through two innings as well as the post-injury Ryan Cook could do it? Asked and answered.
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Q. So where's he been?
A. Maybe camouflaged. Through injury, late development, labeling, etc. Or maybe the hesitation on him is legit, and he really will turn out to be a total mediocrity. :: shrug :: Dr. D knows which way he's leaning, after seeing that diveball.
Roach got a couple of those sinkers up, later, and the batters LIESURELY swatted them deeeep into the gaps. (They were caught.) But that's very typical of extreme groundballers.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. With SSI's RH bullpen -- as of Mar. 25, mind you -- as Cishek-Benoit-Zych-Karns-Roach. Guaipe next. And with jemanji kickin' himself.
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Siiiiggggghhhhhh,
Dr D
