Saving the ammo. I was thinking that if Hart and Tanaka (I know, that's still unlikely) were acquired there'd be no immediate need to trade multiple prospects to cover. Many bullets would be saved in talent and money in comparison to the other pitching and DH solutions available. No pick lost for the signings even. Then it could just be about the best OF we can get with our stock. Smoak just became more likely to be a part of that stock too. Of course that other free agent could instead be Colon or Choo, since hitter handedness is now less of a concern. The ability to use the trade bullets we have to cover 2 big adds is difficult without including Paxton or Walker. If there's just 1 big add via trade it seems much more doable and today's moves make that much more possible.
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Q. Does SSI agree that Corey Hart, Michael Morse, Nelson Cruz are very similar players?
A. SSI does agree with that, yes. Along with Jayson Werth, Josh Willingham, and the like. Defining characteristics:
- Right handed
- Huge bodies
- Aggressive on the first pitch (Richie Sexson, Jay Buhner, Cecil Fielder don't qualify)
- .275/.325/.500 type profiles
- 0.40 type eye ratios
- Good plate coverage, professional approach (they ain't Steve Balboni; they can drive a pitch to right-center)
- Not supremely talented (Albert Belle, Danny Tartabull, Jose Bautista don't qualify) ...
- ... But these guys can RAKE
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Q. Are they of comparable value to Kendrys Morales?
A. Very comparable value, but "right-shifted" down the EMP spectrum to what the Mariners need. These players don't manage the plate as well, but they hit LHP's, and they have MUCH more power than Kendrys -- typically a 150+ Power Index (PX) vs. Kendrys' 120.
Being right-handed, and offering legitimate HR sock, that gets dismissed sometimes, but what the sabertistas overlook is that ...
... well, that these hitters can BRING THE PAIN. Like Saavik told Spock about humor, "It is a difficult concept." For statboys, the idea of a "hitter who can rake" is a very difficult concept.
In June of last year, USSM published an opinion saying that Morales should be given a $14M qualifying offer, despite his (eventual) 1.2 WAR at DH. They wouldn't phrase it this way, of course, but the fact is they had beheld with their own eyes the fact that Morales, along with Seager, were the only guys who could RAKE.
Same is true of Nelson Cruz, Corey Hart, and these other big lugs who can lose a fastball over the left field fence. The contrast between the Usual Mariner Suspects ... Kotchman, Chavez, etc ... and an authentic MLB RBI man is impossible to overlook. Espeically when they're hitting in the same lineup!
.........
Lloyd McClendon emphasized this in his press conference, saying that he wanted guys who could drive in runners late in games, two strikes on them. This is a difficult concept, Saavik'm, but the idea is ...
... Corey Hart doesn't widdle his pants when the other team brings in Joe Nathan. There are Mariners who do. ::coughsmoakcough::
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Q. Does this kind of player age badly?
A. I'll cosign this one with gusto. Yes, they do. VERY badly. They've got to swing hard, swing early, and when their reflexes go even a little bit, you do not want them on your team. Period. No defense, no speed, they get hurt a lot because they weigh 240 lbs. Once they stop hitting 30 homers, you don't want them.
It's always tough finding the right comps list. But EVERY comps list you find on Nelson Cruz, tells you he is done at 32, or 33, or 34.
I was just about to write a piece, opining that on Nelson Cruz the THIRD year would be a reach. Fourth and fifth years? PFFFT.
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Q. So the Mariners traded a set of bad knees for ... a 1-year deal?
A. Wins all the way around. In Corey Hart, they get a carbon-copy of Nelson Cruz ... only, because he's coming off a lost season, they get to skip years 2-5 of the deal.
Pretty ironic, that the day after* Zduriencik gets savaged in the press, he makes an undeniably brilliant sabermetric move.
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Q. How in the world do you GET Corey Hart for one year, $5-8M?
A. Two things: (1) Corey Hart (reportedly) appreciated Jack Zduriencik from their Milwaukee days. Once again, you could cut the irony in the air with Maureen Dowd's portable butter knife.
Nobody likes Zduriencik, remember? ... I'm not saying he ISN'T tough to get along with, but you've got to admit the timing of this "old buddies from down the road" add is ironic, do you not? Here is a gorgeous 25-man roster add, and it occurred because Corey Hart likes Jack Zduriencik.
Dr. D isn't a Zduriencik fan. He is a fan of "fair and balanced," a fan of nuanced evaluation as opposed to cartoon caricatures.
(We're not impugning Baker. He's got a nuanced chat up at the Times today.)
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(2) GM's drip with skepticism about Michael Morse, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales types who "haven't done it for me lately." They're big guys and it "feels" scary when their legs start to go.
Corey Hart has supposedly been working out at full speed ALREADY. If he's the new DH, he should be able to stay healthy. If he does, he slugged over .500 in each of his last three seasons.
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Q. How are the platoon splits? What is Hart's projection for 2014?
A. As with most of these guys, Cruz, Morse, etc., their platoon splits are pretty gentle ... Hart slugs .475 against RHP, lifetime, and .525 vs LHP.
If these big guys weren't professional hitters, they'd be Carlos Peguero or something. Hart can take a fastball into right-center, as Morse could.
Last edition, Ron Shandler projected Hart for a .277/.335/.507 MID batting line, 29 homers in 550 AB's. That'll do for us too.
2014's Josh Willingham, most likely.
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Q. What's the worst thing about Hart?
A. That he's not Ryan Braun or Giancarlo Stanton? ... maybe that he rules Jesus Montero out of another season.
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Q. What's the best thing about Hart?
A. That he's been Gordon's #1 value add for about a year? :: golfclap :: One of yer best calls, G.
... the strong indication that the Cano Maneuver is paying dividends on MLB players buying in to The New Seattle?
... that the Mariners sent all the Nelson Cruzes and Shin-Soo Choo's a message? If you want to get greedy, we can and will freeze you out, dude.
... actually, my favorite aspect, that you scored a cleanup hitter, RIGHT handed, and you kept your cash powder dry. Still a lot of dinero out there to spend. Cliff Lee, anybody? Good way to spend a lot of short-term salary without giving up the best prospects.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Nothing else to add, nailed it. Other than, there is also a big difference for Corey Hart himself, coming to a team where all the pressure is on the $240M man and he can just slot in and play ball. (Past M's offseason would have had Hart as the main offensive addition and default cleanup hitter.)
Now we just need Doc to google up an image for the Robinson Gojira!!! article.
I find it funny that anyone would think that an argument I could find on a free internet website could represent a competitive advantage.
In Hart we have an example of a player who, while slightly riskier than Cruz, is probably better by enough to offset the health issues -- even forgetting the low base cost of his contract. Z clearly used his history with Hart as leverage in the deal, but he also clearly used his Cano signing early as additional leverage.
Cano's presence increases our leverage (not saying it's ALL him; calm down) and THIS is PRECISELY how it expresses itself. A player who ISN'T in premium position to negotiate a mega contract chooses the M's over the other suitors in part because the FO has already signaled their intention to compete by making a huge splash, and acting bullishly in the media about other moves (no Walker for Price, still seeking a rock-solid #2 SP, etc..).
So now, for a brief examination of one facet of roster construction (about which the local blog-o-sphere rages incessantly, but never seems able to express a coherent strategy for which doesn't revert to simple risk management expressed by predicting $/WAR and -0.5WAR/year declines), let's look at what this saves us.
Let's assume Hart makes all of his incentives and is paid $13m this year - that is STILL less than the rumored $15m/year Cruz was demanding. Naturally, the big win here is we get Hart (who's actually a year and a half younger) for ONE year's commitment while Cruz was apparently demanding MORE than five(!!!) for his services. Is it fair to say that he was demanding an extra year, at minimum, over the 5/75 floated around the net?
Let's say Cruz's demands were for $90m/6 years. Most people around the net with their noses in the archives of baseball history agree Cruz is a TERRIBLE bet past the age of 35. As in, he's more likely to implode into utter uselessness by 36 than to be a 1.5 WAR player (as he has ~been for three years running) from that point on.
This means you're looking at, generously, three years of positive production out of Nelson Cruz and for the sake of argument, let's say he earns every dollar during those first three years, WAR-wise (I'd say the likelihood of that is unlikely, but whatever).
That leaves $45m of his contract to be, essentially, written off. Seems likely to be the case too, with what we think we know about the current landscape of the market and Cruz's contemporaries/comparables (remember also that Nelson Cruz over the last THREE years, in TEXAS, has been worth a COMBINED 3.9 WAR. Think he'd do better or worse in Safeco? ::shudders::).
So Robinson Cano's contract, in part, has to be viewed as RESPONSIBLE for limiting the downside on subsequent FA contracts - or, at least, helpful in efforts toward that end, regardless of whether or not the FO decides to utilize it. How much of that $45m can you attribute to Cano? I don't know; I'm smart and arrogant, but not smart enough OR arrogant enough to think I can come up with some college algebra equation to express the answer. For myself, I'm going with half, because it's nice and simple and I think it's probably in the ballpark.
So for me, Robinson Cano just cut $22.5m off the M's future obligation to pay a guy like Nelson Cruz to go fishing for the last few years of his contract, mostly because Cano signed before the winter meetings rather than 'waiting for his market to develop.'