He looked a little more portly last night, Doc. I think that is the appropriate phrase. And I agree, he looked a little more leisurely in his pitching, as well. Interesting.
Nobody has been more of a Harang harumpher than me, but he's pitched well lately. As I pointed out in my shoutout, he's been a Mr. Jekyll and Mr. Harang this year, either abysmally abysmal or pretty dang good. I'll take another plate of the latter, please. But in saying so, the little voice in the back of my head wishes it not, as I would much prefer E-Ram and Taijuan in the rotation and two more Harang starts like this make that harder to achieve. A trade? Not much would come our way, I'm sure.
A dilemma of small sorts. He's likely not helping us next year, but he was fun to watch last night. I will be interested in his next start, too.
Good for him.
Now find a way to get me E-Ram and Taijuan.
moe

If you take out his April numbers, which for him were was his spring training, he's been pretty darn good. He's had one bad start in both May and June in his 7 starts. The other 5 starts he's Iwakuma like. It's unfortunate that he didn't get a couple of starts down in Tacoma to start the season. Wedge had to leave him out there and take his lumps in order for him to stretch out his arm.

In his good May/June starts, he's thrown 36 innings, given up 19 hits, 5 ER's, 5 BB's, 33 K's and 0 HR's.
In his two ugly starts he's thrown 6 innings, given up 17 hits, 13 ER's, 0 BB's, 7 K's and 4 HR's.
He doesn't walk himself into trouble, he gets tatered to death.
He already tied his career best of 2 shoutouts in one season ('06) and even in his very good '07 (16-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) it is hard to find a stretch where he had three starts in a 4-outing series that are as good as his recent 3 'fer 4. He's actually throwing fewer FB's then he did most of his career (especially his good eyars) and making it up by throwing more curves. Sliders and changes remain about the same. He's lost almost no velocity on his FB, maybe 1 MPH on his changeup and nothing on his bendy stuff.
He will be this same pitcher next year, too. He will cost us $7M to keep him next year, if I read his option correctly....and $2M to let him go. There isn't much incentive for him to renegotiate...which means not much incentive for us to keep him around.
I like guys that throw easy. I can't quite see us keeping him. I still want to see E-Ram and Taijuan, quite soon, thank you.
But the big guy is fairly hot right now. Two more starts like this and he might bring us something in return, but not something really sparkly.
moe

What I read from Harang's career best K/BB? That DESPITE a career best K/BB (which means, it is highly unlikely that he can sustain it), that he ALSO has a current career worst ERA.
For his Career, Harang is exactly at 100 ERA+. Nothing wrong with a 100 ERA+ SP. Seattle could definitely use a couple in the BOR.
The question, however, is not what Harang "has been" ... but "what is he going to be?"
Yes, he had a stellar game. I'm happy. He's happy. Ms fans are happy.
How many games like that can we expect?
In 2011, Harang allowed 0 ERs how many times? 4 -- (May 19, July 9th and 14th, Sept 24th)
In 2012, Harang allowed 0 ERs how many times? 4 -- (May 17, June 7th and 12th, Sept 26th)
Is there *ANY* reason to believe Harang can maintain his current career high K/BB? Well, as you noted, Harang is (and always has been) a 2-pitch pitcher. By your analysis, he is the same (tactical/strategic) pitcher he has always been. He has not added a new pitch. He has not found an extra 5 MPH at age 35.
Your analysis notes that FB/Slider guy has "small margin for error".
Well, last THREE (3) seasons, Harang's walk rates were 3.1 / 3.1 / 4.3 -- (career average of 2.7).
Haran'gs last three (3) seasons, his strike out rates were: 6.6 / 6.5 / 6.6 -- (career average of 7.3).
So, over the most recent 470 IPs (in the NL), he had worse than career level results for his peripherals, (excluding the 0.7 HR rate he posted in 2012.)
================
Is it possible Harang could post a 100 ERA+ season? Yes. That's what he "has been". He's young enough where he "might" reproduce his norm.
It it possible for him to exceed this? Chances are practically nil. He has no new pitch. He has not previously been pitching under adverse circumstances, (not a Coors of Texas or Boston transplant).
So far in 2013, Mariner fans have already gotten to see Harang's best days and his worst. That's his range.
The total value he brings is NEITHER of those. It is the aggregate based on his consistency.
Well ... what is his QS%? Career of 51%.
During his peak seasons (2005-2008), he managed 59% in 3 of those 4 seasons.
But, his most recent three year:
2010 - 45% -- this is downside outlier for his career
2011 - 64% -- this is the upside outlier for his career
2012 - 52%
So, what has he done for Seattle thus far? 5 QS in 10 starts. Exactly 50%.
At this point, Harang's SEASON statistics for consistency are right at his career level.
Yet, despite career highs in K and low in BBs ... his ERA is miserable. Why?
Because when he has been smacked around, he has been smacked around harder than is normal. His 2nd and 3rd outings were 8 Earned in 4.2 and 5 earned in 3. He start immediately before his recent CGSO was 6 earned in 2.1 innings.
What does this speak to?
It speaks to consistency. Harang's ability to "muddle through" on his subpar days (thus far in 2013) appears to be significantly worse than for most of his career. What does this mean for Harang specifically and Seattle in particular?
Harang -- probably not going to manage that 100 ERA+. The early exits will hurt. Is is possible that the early exits are all behind him? Sure. Is it likely? I don't see why one would think so.
That said, yes ... he could manage 50% QS the rest of the way. And in those starts, whether he gets offensive support or not will determine W/L/ND. But, in the poor starts ... the overwhelming result is going to be loss.
Harang is very, very similar to Millwood in terms of K/BB/HR career numbers. He's also about the same place in terms of career timeline, (though Millwood was actually a better pitcher at his peak).
Millwood had a 50% QS number last year and went 6-12.
My take ... being an NL guy is that Millwood last year was a better pitching talent than Harang this year.
Last year I noted at the beginning of the season, Millwood would pitch "just well enough to lose" throughout the year. That's precisely what he did.
Harang is NOT a "good" pitcher any more. He is an average pitcher in the waning years of his career.
Yes, it's possible that this is not THE year that he crashes and burns. He could be a 100 ERA+ SP by year end. But,
If you look at Fangraphs, the last year his FB had a positive pitch value was 2007.
His slide had a positive value in 2011 (3.4) and 2012 (4.5), but is currently running negative.
Yeah, he'll probably improve his ERA a bit from where it is. But, he's an average pitcher with no new weapons, who is chock up to the eardrums with downside.
My concern?
Those early exits end up putting extra pressure on a bullpen which is shaky to begin with. When you add in the extra weight on the pen due to the other two weak spots in the rotation, the math to me says ... Harang can be a slightly negative pull on the rotation (looking exclusively at his starts), but one that likely costs the team wins in games he's not pitching.
In the end, it will be the ratio of feast to famine games that determines Harang's true worth. Nothing in the stats for the last 4 years indicates to me that there is a reason to believe he will be any more consistent going forward. There are reasons to believe he will be less consistent - or at least the downs will be more severe than in the past.
Striking out 10 Astros ... not that big a deal, since they lead the AL in team Ks by a wide margin.
As for Saunders vs. Harang. While both are career 100 ERA+ guys, Saunders is younger by 3 years, has pitched primarily in the AL, and has a career 56% QS number. While I understand there is room to debate which is the better option ... I would land squarely on the Saunders side. More overall consistency, better age, previous AL experience.
If one looks at the WAR history ... Saunders putters along getting his 1.0 (ish) WAR with a single exceptional season (2008), when he hit 4.6.
Harang had a 3 year span when he went 4.5; 5.2; 6.0. That three year peak is inflating Harang's career figures and not indicative of what he has done over the past 5 seasons.
I would love it if Harang proves me wrong, gets in a groove and manages to throw up 60% quality starts. I just don't see anything in the numbers that indicates this is likely.

But they do have something in common, don't they? I wonder if these kind of guys are slow rotational throwers. Things (hips, shoulders) don't spin rapidly on these "portly" types, might that be it? Rotate slowly = more consistency? Here's a video of Lolich getting the final out of the '68 Series.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=micky+lolich+video&mid=761BED7A4A465...
His release point almost seems right at his shoulder. He's a short lever guy, too. Are they all that way?
I thought wells might be, too....but he appears to get more extension:
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=david+wells+video&mid=EF5F81ABE63F28...
Zambrano appears to be more of a short arm-er...and a slow rotational guy.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=carlos+zambrano+video&view=detail&mi...
Interesting
moe