Doc, your analysis is right on. Wilson has a decent chance to put up decent MLB #'s. He's no lock, but right now he's a better bat than Saunders (which isn't saying much) and as good as Cust and probably Bradley. In a team desperate for a guy than can hurt mistakes, Wilson offers just that. He's the most immediate and affordable (in terms of not giving up anything) possible help for the M's anemic offense, right now.
You know how much I've been beating this horse for a couple of years. I really like this move because it is the type of move that a team amkes when they think they can win but have limited cash resources and (most importantly) want to husband their own playing resources.
We could make some kind of trade, giving up a young guy, and get a player without much more ability than Wilson, in any.
Conine is a very nice comparison.
Ultimately, you have to look at players who put up great numbers against fringe MLB (AAA) types. You can't simply ignore those numbers because a guy "looks" like he isn't what a ball player is supposed to look like.
And now Wedge should pencil him in for the next 20-30 games...Throw him in the pool. I think we will get to watch a player who can help develop.
Davis and Conine would be great templates for him to follow. but right now, I'll take Joe Charboneau
I am very pleased for Wilson and for the M's.
Q. What's the bottom line on Wilson?
A. Mike Wilson is an enigma, and therefore an inkblot test. From bloggers' reactions to Wilson, you can see their own commentaries on themselves.
We mean it in a good way.
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Q. What is SSI's assessment of Wilson?
A. Merely that, as of May 8, 2011, he offers the Mariners their best internal chance at the Theoretical Dark Matter that fangraphs calls the "replacement level player."
SSI doesn't guarantee that Wilson will play well. It merely opines that if you buy into the shtick that RLP's can be obtained quickly and cheaply, you ought to be on board with the Mike Wilson move.
Wilson is their one available RLP.
He's 28 years old, he's seen billions of high-quality pro pitches of all types, and he's red-hot right now.
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Q. Does SSI go for every guy like this who comes along?
A. When Carlos Peguero came up, did we point out the 9,000 similarities between him and Ryan Howard? Physically, sabermetrically, and age-arc-wise?
No, because I didn't like the way Peguero looked in 2011.
SSI isn't about hyping exciting players. It's about giving a clear thumbs-up or thumbs-down when other amigos might be going, "well, maybe." Peguero was a clear thumbs-down for 2011.
........
Wilson's an exception, an SSI case of "just can't get a read." We'll hafta see.
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Q. Could Wilson play well?
A. Sure. His plate approach is very polished and solid compared to, say, Carlos Peguero's.
He's hardly Carney Lansford up there massaging the strike zone as if it were an acupuncture patient, but I've seen much worse. Do not get Wilson confused with Greg Halman. That is not the case here.
Wilson didn't hit all those ST homers by accident. He's a guess hitter, he's got nice physical balance and surprising plate coverage, and if he guesses right he will lose the baseball on you.
Wilson wouldn't be the first guy in his category to come up to the bigs late and become an ML regular. The chance is what, 10%, 15% ?, but that's a lot different than just "Wilson reeks, get serious can'cha."
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Q. ML comps?
A. Jeff Conine was a big strong guy for whom baseball was a second sport. He had decent-not-great minors stats. He made the majors at 27, and quickly started slugging .500 there -- several 130 OPS+ seasons.
The odds are against Wilson, but not ridiculously so. He could slug .500 for a couple of years.
General principles, such as "a hitter is a better bet if he makes the majors at 23," should be our servants and not our masters. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and unthinking dogma w/r/t the age-arc principle kept a lot of teams from dealing for Ryan Howard.
It would only make sense that Wilson would be a late bloomer. He is literally a football linebacker. As a 'net rat, you should wholeheartedly give him a generous allocation of extra time.
Lot of guys were nowhere at 27 and had good careers. Bucky Jacobsen probably would have been good if he'd kept himself in shape.
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We are saying only that Wilson could play well, and that he's the only viable option at the moment.
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Q. Is he a platoon guy?
A. He is NOT, no.
He may be a mistake hitter; that's possible. And it would be fine with me, -- with Milton Bradley and Jack Cust and Michael Saunders here, it would be nice to have one guy who could punish mistakes.
But mistake hitters are not platoon guys. It's not the same thing.
In 50 AB's against RHP this year, in the PCL, he's hitting .360/.411/.680.
As we continually remind, 85-90% of all PCL innings are thrown by major league pitchers. Either just recently in the bigs or just about to be in the bigs.
Wilson is OPS'ing 1100 against fringe-ML right hand pitching. Think about it.
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Q. That's a small sample.
A. No it's not a small sample. It doesn't "sample" anything. Wilson's age-28 AB's against these particular ten 2011 PCL pitchers do not represent what he would do against other pitchers.
Anyway, I do know what you mean, though: so in 2010, Wilson hit RHP's better than he did LHP's, hitting .280/.370/.530 in Cheney vs RHP's.
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Q. How good does he have to be?
A. Well, Jack Cust is slugging .235. That's not his AVG; it's his SLG.
Even one month's worth of a 100 OPS+ in left field could make a difference in the 2011 AL West.
We are talking about whether Mike Wilson can provide replacement level play, even if over a short span of time. You're telling me that's not worth a try?
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Q. Does he get a real chance?
A. This is the Mariners' real dilemma here.
Amateur orgs call up a Mike Wilson and say, "okay, you get two games. If you get three hits, we'll probably give you two more games."
Everybody's fishing for Alvin Davis -- a kid who goes yard in game one, who gives you a 1.000 OPS in week one, and goes on to win Rookie of the Year.
The M's need to decide whether Mike Wilson deserves a real look. In my view, he does. At this time and in this place, a month's worth of AB's is appropriate.
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Of course, he could pull a Carlos Peguero and demonstrate within a few games that he can't compete, but that's very unlikely. Wilson's a solid pro hitter at this point.
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Q. Is it worth a 40-man roster slot?
A. You can't let the 40-man roster keep you from dipping into AAA during the season. AAA moves are part of the nature of doing business.
If it's Bradley or Ray goin' out, the move pays for itself.
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Q. Glad to see the move?
A. Asked for it, on April 28. So we'll be rootin' for him to help the ballclub. If he doesn't, that's Stars & Scrubs. It allows you to be agile.
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He Likes It! Hey Mikey,
Dr D
Comments
Good on ya, Moe!
[Scott Patterson got next: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t104&t... -- couldn't resist]
Jeff, thanks for all the stats, etc. But your best words? "You're telling me that's not worth a try?" Even if he is only a "mistake" hitter, potentially that would be refreshing. Don't pitchers ever throw up mistakes to M's hitters?
If he has some success at age 28, that helps fill in until minors awaken to help. Maybe that translates into more. It often takes football muscles time to conform to baseball so it should be no surprise to see a second sporter gradually improve as he also has to learn more of the game.
In the end, I hope he literally is a hit. He would make one smashing bobble-head doll! Your info and opinions much appreciated!
"We got next!"
Because much too rare, Jeff. :- )
If they give him a bobble night, let's hope the head is upsized ...
It fills my heart with the joy of a thousand crystal-clear waterfalls --- > to root for an organization that wants to win.
I mean it in a dignified, understated way.
...........
TWO guys?
Now that the Mariners have the ballplayers' attention for the flight East .... you think they have it enough, to make Figgins play some LF?
We worried for awhile that the move to 2B hurt his bat. Since that's obviously not the case, you might as well move him back to the Mark McLemore position, right?
.........
You amigos figured out the backup CF yet?
20 K's without giving up a walk!
In 50 innings over the last two years, he's K'ed 56 guys and walked but 9.
Book the flight to Tacoma! Have you seen what their relievers are doing?
moe
Not really, but I hope he gets a shot at Tacoma in all this. His luck turned and he's got a legit .856 OPS in AA with 14 XBH and 16 BB in 97 ABs.
You'd completely eliminate passed balls.
I take it that Peguero is called up to help Saunders against lefties and play some CF. Why else would they tap that well again? But yeah...it's very encouraging that the club has decided to make a statement to the team about effort and focus with this move...and I don't suspect they'll stand pat with this outfield for long...as soon as something becomes available, I'm guessing they'll make a minor trade.
Been a super busy baseball season with finishing a degree...enjoying a short break before summer legion ball. I read when I can but need to remember to take more time to thank you for your comments!
How many World Series are won with guys like a Bradley? But lots of rings on the Conines of the world that grind through the long summer. Baseball is still a sport that will pounce on team weaknesses whether physical or mental.
Well I'm already on the record as being against this move because neither Wilson or Peguero are very interesting to me. Maybe Peguero in the future, but not in the present.
Color me skeptical about Wilson's chances.
However, if he's up with the 25 man roster I'll root for him until Z finds someone better. Or Wilson proves me wrong.
...I read the reactions from some of his teammates and coaches. They seem relieved he's gone and can focus on getting himself better mentally. He's just not healthy enough to play this game...he's influencing the games now with his attitude and that can't be tolerated.
And who else were we gonna call up to take his roster spot?
where did you find player comments?
...no one obviously said anything bad about Bradley directly...and I think he is generally liked as a person...but the sense you get from Baker's exhaustive commetnary is that Wedge and Zduriencik were responding to not just performance but a general mood in the clubhouse regarding some of his recent troubles. Didn't mean to leave the impression there were direct quotes...that should have said "until I read comments FROM BAKER about the player reaction.
Relays his experience as to how much of a pain in the neck it was becoming.
All the players will tell you they HATE getting a nice win and having to listen to a teammate moan about his oh-fer. Much less the scene Baker passed on.
Baker's not going to emphasize disruptive behavior because it was inconvenient to HIM. He knows the clubhouse isn't about the writers.
he didn't want to face the media after a rough day at the plate followed by a (possibly undeserved, but still...) poorly timed ejection...and he was standing alone in there for a reason. The way Baker described it, he was all alone in that clubhouse...no one wanted to be near him.
What a bitter disappointment. :). Course the way Wedge is going he'll score two xbh....
Probably the idea is a game to sit in the big league environment.
........
Baker with the lineup, Smoak going to 3, which could snap him out of his overswinging the last week.
Really? No Mikey? Crap!
I may workout then!
Ah...I'll watch.
Keith
...this is the perfect time to get Smoak higher in the order. And chances are, he'll have Figgins and/or Ichiro on base to protect so he'll dial down his ambition a bit and just try to put it in play hard somewhere. We'll see.
Would have preferred Cust 3, Smoak 4...but this''ll do.