POTD Kawasaki - Pokey Reese Dept.

 ............

Q.  Making his ML comp who?

A.  Pokey Reese.  Well, that's one of about a hundred guys you could pick in this template.  Pokey would hit .250 with forty walks, a few doubles, and he'd steal bases.  That's a 70 OPS+.

Kawasaki actually puts a big swing on the ball.  See how similar his swing is to Ichiro's.  You wouldn't put it past Kawasaki to hit 20, 25 doubles in fulltime play, like Pokey used to.  

Dr. D wouldn't expect Kawasaki to come over here and hit .125.  He'd be pretty confident that Kawasaki would (eventually) pitch in on a Jack Wilson level.

..........

His fans would hope that he'd elevate his game to the Omar Vizquel level, surprising you with a 90'ish OPS+ due to his own intelligence and due to his swing's fit to Safeco Field.

.

Q.  Defense?

A.  On the tapes, he reminds of a Pokey Reese / Omar Vizquel type shortstop.  Super quick, real good feet, okay arm.  This video gets more interesting after the 45-second mark.

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Q.  Do the M's need a Pokey Reese?  Maybe at backup?

A.  Full disclosure dept:  Dr. D is biased against glove specialists in today's game, especially off the bench, especially when your starter is a glove specialist.  No synergy.

As it happens, James once told us what he thought of THE Pokey Reese, why the Sox kept him and so forth.  Bill said tersely, "the field manager thought he was the best defensive infielder in baseball, which perhaps makes him worth a (#25) roster slot."

With Seager, Franklin, Liddi, yada yada yada, it's a little tough to see Pokey Reese blocking them.

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Q.  Under what circumstances would Dr. D roster Kawasaki?

A.  Under the same circumstances in which the Mariners brought up any AAA middle infielder such as Josh Wilson, Chris Woodward, or any such don't-embarrass-yourself stoploss.

If your choice is Ronny Cedeno or --- > a Pokey Reese-style gold glove benchie who --- > doubles as Ichiro's dinner partner, great.  Gimme Kawasaki.  

As we all know, there are off-field concerns here.  If that's all you have to do, to keep your Japanese-American fans pleased, is to replace Josh Wilson with Munenori Kawasaki, then hop to it.

.

By the way, I don't notice that in 2011, the Mariners played any Josh Wilsons or Chris Woodwards.  Jack seems to have put that milestone in the rear view mirror.

The only real scrub infielder the M's used, was Luis Rodriguez.  A bat-first nomad who appeared to have some breakthrough potential.

You want to give L-Rod's "fringe IF up-and-down to Cheney" spot to Kawasaki?  Hm.

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Q.  What's the bottom line?

A.  The Mariners do have an NPB pipeline to maintain, and they do have a fanbase to consider.

If a Japanese MVP is really willing to bop up-and-down between here and Cheney, and he's really not going to give you a problem about being used like Chris Woodward, then I guess you gotta do it.

Cheers,

Dr D

 

Comments

1

The Mariners do have an NPB pipeline to maintain, and they do have a fanbase to consider.
If a Japanese MVP is really willing to bop up-and-down between here and Cheney, and he's really not going to give you a problem about being used like Chris Woodward, then I guess you gotta do it.

The IF is the operative factor here.
If your "I love Ichiro" "really wanna play with Ichiro" Yamauchi fingers-on-the-scale good glove meh-hit NPB infielder is willing to be treated like any roster-fill player and his presence satisfies the need for an NPB constituency checkbox, fine.
If there are no entanglements with the Ichiro situation where if you power-flush the guy Ichiro is not miffed, or your not in trouble with Yamauchi-san, fine.
I find those two "ifs" pretty hard to swallow, myself.
 

2

I see the "minor league invite" as this:  "I'm willing to prove myself, once.  Then I expect you to adjust to the reality that I'm a good player."
Am guessing that Jack reads it the way you and I do, also.  Hence his tepid reaction.  Who needs one more drama.
........
Now, supposing that Kawasaki really just wants to be in an ML clubhouse with Ichiro, and genuinely accepts the roster crunch, and wants $1M guaranteed jack, that's another story.

3
Taro's picture

Nishioka's performance has forced me to look differently at SS-converts to the MLB.
NPB SS are taught to smother balls and then quickly throw, as opposed to the MLB way of backhanding balls hit to the right and setting for a strong throw. It is possible that this is a vastly inferior method of fielding the majority of balls hit to SS, particular balls to the right.
It also makes me wonder if this is the reason why Iwamura transitioned so nicely defensively to the MLB (he was a 3B in the NPB without that technical issue).
It was the same for catchers. When Joh first came over he would release the ball before setting his feet because in the NPB it is taught that you want to get rid of the ball ASAP. The Ms fixed his technique (which I was against at the time), and it vastly improved his CS%.
Based on the coversions so far, NPB OFs on average have superior technique to MLB OFs, but the MLB IFs are signficantly ahead because of a few technical differences.

4

Forehanding a ball to a SS's right ... that makes the play more "sure" but also makes the play slower.
It gives the impression of hustle and reliability, to two-hand a ball to the right.  As Nishioka-san himself put it, "in Japan this play (the backhand) is considered lazy."
The true intent is quickness.  With the added quickness, the SS can play deeper and can increase his range.
........
Kyle Seager also has the habit of forehanding balls from the SS position.  In my view, it's one of the habits he needs to break.  He's good going to his glove side, but not so good going across his body.
........
As a general rule, Americans need to learn the habit of diligence and precision.  This is an exception, in my opinion.  On the grounder to the SS's right, the Japanese err too far to the side of pseudo-"reliability."
Great post as usual Taro!

5

It's almost a different position in the majors, SS's playing very deep, needing to backhand-and-fire to get the runners by one-half of a step.
It puts a premium on the power arm and on positioning that tests the very limits of the SS's athleticism.
It must be almost like switching positions for players like Nishioka.

6
Taro's picture

It really is a different position. The NPB is a contact hitting league and there are simply more weakly hit balls and dribblers to SS in the NPB.
It makes sense that this type of technical play at SS would evolve in the NPB because you simply can't play deep unless you want to give up a ton of infield hits. It puts an extra premium on lateral range and less premium on getting off strong throws (since lateral range is prioritized).
Balls are hit HARD in the MLB. Its just a different set of skills that you need. 

7

It would be interesting to get the same sort of data from NPB as we now have from MLB on speed and initial angle leaving the bat that Mike Fast is analyzing and providing so many new insights. I suspect we would find the data to support Taro - the balls are hit harder and the spectrum is different enough to favor different ways of fielding. This would explain many things about the differences between NPB and MLB from the pitching side as well. Kaz Sasaki had little problem dealing with most hitters here, but he was amongst the biggest and strongest and hardest-throwing pitchers ever in NPB (Dai mai-jin?).
On a related point, I wonder if the Mariners would be better served by signing Omar Vizquel to back up short and 3B. Though he is no longer a great SS, he still shows as adequate. But what a mentor to Ackley, Seager, Franklin, Triunfel, et al! Similar to what I believe Tampa Bay did by trading Jaso and signing Molina, this puts a guy in front of your prospects that isn't a threat to their future, but offers that mentoring. If you believe Chirinos or Lobaton is your future, get a mentor instead of someone almost as good, who will be upset about steadily losing playing time. In this case, I see nothing good coming from getting Ichiro's workout partner (kohai?), then having to flush him if Triunfel and Franklin start really getting after it. A Little O homecoming might be a way of providing the veteran presence without impeding the development of some potentially great players.

8

We have a Ryan and we have certainly considered a bat-first Seager as SS (a move I support, BTW.  At least until he shows he CAN'T do it), and that says nothing of Franklin, whois a a MLB IF, perhaps a SS, waiting to happen, maybe this year, maybe next.
No thanks to adding a decent-glove 75 OPS guy.
We've got the cards, let's play 'em.
 

9

And even Daimajin had a rude wakeup in his first couple of months - throwing 89 fastballs out-and-over when behind in the count, not realizing that the danger was far higher.
Interesting put on Little O.  Have heard back-channel that the M's (notably Armstrong) have been keen to get him back, a couple of times.
As you bring it up, flushing Kawasaki could present all kinds of problems, especially midseason.  "Agility" is always a problem with any NPB player coming to Seattle.  That's got to be what is giving Capt Jack some pause...

10

I'll bet you that if the average fan umpired 3B in a major league game, the first squarely-struck ball would leave him terrified the rest of the night.

11
IcebreakerX's picture

Kawasaki is well known as a mood maker and generally great team player on both WBC rosters and the Hawks. He also reminds of So Taguchi, who flourished under a tactical genius.
So I would definitely take his word for being willing to go forth with a minor league contract. Japanese players will typically defer to the manager and team when it comes to decisions, and Kawasaki is a model player in that angle. 
IMO, you have a starting shortstop who goes on the DL twice a year, along with a bench that can't bunt, run, make contact or defend worth a bean. Although we talk of bats on the bench, I'd prefer players with plus tools as sharp scalpels on the bench. Kawasaki fits well as a small-ball specialist who can perform in a pinch.

13
IcebreakerX's picture

I think he will honor his word. Especially under his mentor.

14

He said he'd take a minor league contract, as I understand him ... one interpretation of that is, "I'm willing to prove myself."  Like, bide his time until his turn to play, and then when he plays well, get lots of playing time.
Being used as a fringe player, a stoploss, that's kind of a different thing.  Wonder if I'm missing something.

15

Z said they need to bring in a backup SS because they do not view Seager as more than a stopgap there.  I think on Drayer's blog.
I, personally, think Luis Rodriguez is a guy whose bad fortune has masked his very decent potential, so I'm glad that they brought him back.  Kawasaki seems all right for the L-Rod role, too, but probably not more than that. 
I also understand the lack of faith in L-Rod, who has never actually produced the numbers that his approach indicates he ought to.

16

Bump - Kawasaki signs -
For a guy who is a glove-first LH utility infielder, the two things I like best about him are (1) stolen bases and (2) the fact that he takes a legit hack at the pitch.
The late-inning pinch run SB, in a 1-run game, seems to have gone out of fashion, but it's not clear why.
And because Kawasaki takes a decent rip at the pitch, I'm not ruling out the possibility of an UP year at the plate.  What did somebody say, in 2010 he had 190 hits or somesuch.
Can't dismiss the UP scenario out of hand.  
............
If Ichiro has an UP year himself, I'm putting it right in Kawasaki's and Iwakuma's* credit account :- )

17
Taro's picture

The main concern is that his offense imploded the second they switched to the new ball, but if its a more accurate representation of his offensive potential than he'll just have to prove his fielding can translate. And maybe he rebounds offensively in MLB.
No downside with a minor league deal.

18
IcebreakerX's picture

Played right, he'll probably be around a Mark McLemore Light... Or maybe Desi Relaford. Has weapons, will travel. Sounds good.

19

Hmmmm . . .
Kawasaki signs and the Rockies are once again said to be seeking a 2b in exchange for Seth Smith.
Prelude to a Seager-Smith (more or less) swap?  We don't really need two LH utility guys (and SH Figgy still on the payroll), and I'm not convinced they like Kyle at third.
 

20

Yeah... say what you want about Luis Ugeto but it was always fun watching him steal bases late in the game as a PR.  He was pretty successful IIRC.

21

HQ way high on Smith
And SSI is coming around pretty good, too.  In a platoon situation, am starting to wonder about breakout seasons.
If he didn't take too many AB's away from Carp / Smoak etc, that would be a nifty grab.  I'd give 'em Seager plus.

22

My thought exactly upon hearing we got Kawasaki.
Seager-for-Smith works for both teams.  Rockies want that bat at 2nd, and in that large park Seager's probably good for 40+ doubles a year.  The Ms don't think he's a 3B OR a SS, it looks like, and with 2B blocked off for the next 15 years he then doesn't have a position with us.
With a half-dozen options at 3B, several of whom will be in AAA this year, I get it.  I wouldn't do it, but I get it.
Bring on the Smith/Wells platoon, I guess?
~G

23
Taro's picture

I like Smith more than others, but if we trade Seager what happens to 3B?
I am growing weary of the Peguero, Trayvon, Liddi type experiments. These prospect types are like lotto picks. The vast majority of them will bust.
We can't be living in an ideal dreamland anymore. The OF needs real solutions and Liddi should not be counted on at 3B.
If Seager gets traded, a real 3B solution would need to come in.

24

Very good Q champ -
Though if you ask me, Kyle Seager has some things to prove in order to be considered as part of a possible 3B solution ... like we sez, medium-hit balls go by that guy down the line that are 5 feet fair -
Quite possible for him to improve, and that's one of Zduriencik's mantras, that infielders can get better with the glove -
..........
Fortunately, it was only us that ever suggested Seager for Smith.  For all we know, the Rockies would target Guillermo Pimentel and Janelfry Zorilla :- )

25
Taro's picture

Yeah, Seager looked a lot more raw at 3B than I expected. Even so, hes the only 3B MLB prospect that has a fair shot at hitting in 2012 IMO.
If its not Seager, we'd have to consider an outside player.

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