POTD Justin Smoak, 2013
Out of the cave of the prophet Elijah

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Okay, so Justin Smoak is finally pulling out the Big Guns.  If you told me that he went to the Old Testament Prophet Elijah, and Elijah his ownself told Smoak the key to success, I wouldn't be a whole lot more impressed than I already am.  

That's quite a statement, but you know what the difference is between my statement and "hyperbole"?  The difference is that I told you precisely why I think so, told you exactly what my grounds are for saying so.

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That said:  supposing that Justin Smoak now has baseball's best, cleanest swing.  Well, in 2010 he already had a beautiful swing.  Granted, it was a long one, and granted, he had no pitch recog to go with it.  But his swing was fluid, and he had excellent plate coverage.  In 2010, Smoak could get to all 9 sectors of the strike zone, as Jesus Montero could in 2012.

Supposing that Smoak's slo-mo training has given him calmness of mind, and reaction time at the speed of thought.  Slo-mo training frequently speeds up an athlete, slows down time for him.  Frequently?  It always does.

Supposing that Smoak's newfound balance increased his power.  We've explained why better balance means more power.  In 2010, Smoak seemed well capable of hitting the ball out to every field.  In 2011 and 12, his power seemed gone.  Maybe this restored his power?

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Supposing all this were true, it still wouldn't be a guarantee.  Of anything.  

It's never been clear to me whether Smoak has the hand-eye coordination that is the difference between AA hitters and MLB hitters.  It's certainly better than yours and mine, and it's certainly better than Jeff Clement's.  But is it good enough?  I don't know, and I don't think any other bloggers know, either.  Maybe Eric Wedge knows.  I'd love to hear what Wedge said about that specific question.

It's not clear AT ALL to me whether Smoak has seen enough pitches.  Carlos Pena, his historical career-comp, didn't jell until what, age 28, when he won* the MVP?  You can't say.

It's not clear to me whether Smoak has the resiliency of spirit necessary to do battle and overcome.  Does Smoak have the heart of a Michael Morse?  We'll find out.

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I believe that the fix The Prophet Elijah gave Smoak this winter, that it will allow Smoak to be the very best 2013 Justin Smoak that is possible, in 2013.  Suppose that the prophet Elijah told ME what to do to hit big league pitching?  No.  What would it mean if he told Smoak?  We'll find out.

If the reports be anywhere in the vicinity of accurate, then Smoak comes to camp in 2013:

  • More balanced at the plate
  • Quicker at the plate
  • More powerful at the plate
  • With a more positive, optimistic attitude at the plate

But Jeff Clarke could be all those things, and it still wouldn't allow him to hit Jered Weaver.

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It's fascinating to me that Geoff Baker finds Justin Smoak to be an intriguing "eyes slideways" this spring. He thinks Smoak is more compact, has made defining changes, and that there's a chance Smoak will step forward.  Baker has stated that the difference between Sept. 2012, and previous flashes, was that this time Smoak seemed to know WHY he was doing well in Sept., seemed to believe that it was repeatable.

On this issue Baker's judgment is worth a whale of a lot to me.

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Ron Shandler on Smoak:  (xPX is expected power index, how hard a guy puts the ball into play.)

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"Almost lost in another disappointing season was a terrific Sept (5 HR, .338 AVG, 11% walks, 87% contact) that will tempt owners again in 2013 ... just like his .301 AVG in Sept 2011 tempted owners last March.  But while xPX history holds out hope, repeated failures have shortened his leash."

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Enjoy,

Dr D

 

 

Comments

1
M-Pops's picture

Hopefully, Bledsoe is a gifted instructor and Smoak understands the lessons he is teaching. I doubt that desperation has sharpened and motivated Smoak to master this technique like it had for Saunders last offseason. Hopefully I have Smoak all wrong and he is committed to this new practice even after his first slump.
Great series, Doc - like watching Carter do a reverse 360 windmill dunk :-)

2

Would be interesting if Baker and/or Dr. D could compare/contrast the two and their methods and results. Wonder if Geoff would be amenable to talking to Mike Bard and then provide an insight to their differing methods, and then let Jeff provide the aiki analysis in his inimitable style. A Times/SSI 1-2 punch.

3

Harvey Penick is one of the great golf teachers ever. His students include Tom Kite and Ben Crenshaw, one a tremendous grinder and practicer, theother a natural feel player. Penick could coach everybody. His "Little Red Book" is (I believe) the best selling instruction book in the history of golf. In it he talked about a drill he liked, one that was very slo-mo. He had his players swing the club to the top of the back swing then drop, in the slowest motion possible, the swing until the right elbow was sitting at the right hip or in the right pants pocket. Then the player went back to his top position and did it again. Ditto.
You get the idea. Slow motion teaching. The move slows down and the experience slows down, as well.
I've done it. It has great value.
I'm hoping something similar works with Smoak. Hoping being the key word.
I'm not betting much on it. Pena is a nice mention...but not the best template. He OPS +'ed 121 at age 23 (72 PA's), 106 at 24, 108 at 25, 114 at 26, 113 at 27, 96 at 28 (in only 37 PA's), then 172-129-133.
At 23 Smoak OPS+'ed 82, then was at 106 at age 24 and down to 87 at 25.
The two guys were simillar players at 24, but Smoak crashed at 25 while Pena improved.
Could be an aberation for Smoak. Might not be.
Might not be is a 2-1 favorite. Maybe 3-1.
Smoak whacks a lot of impressive outs. They still be outs.
We're all in on him. I hope it was a good wager.
Slow motion movement is pretty well established as having performance and focal benefit. Tai Chi, as it is practiced in the west, follows this philosophy, to a degree. It is purported that focusing the mind solely on the movements of the form helps to bring about a state of mental calm and clarity.
Form and clarity can certainly not hurt Smoak.
If his issue is AAAA talent, I'm not sure they can overcome that problem.
moe

4

You can practice anything at full speed thousands of times and have trouble with thinking while you're doing it. When you slow down the practice and allow yourself to have all the thoughts while doing it you eventually get to a point where even in slow motion you're not thinking so much. When you turn back to speeding it up you can focus more on the external because you're no longer internally focused anymore. By slowing down to adjust and focus on changes you can actually implement them quicker. It's easier to feel what's wrong with a movement in slow motion too which is past even thinking about it.
I'm not sure where I exactly picked up the understanding of it, but I've used it in many different things. Taught myself to throw darts underhand like that and later realized the motion is not much different if I moved my arm behind my back. I can boast to ending 2 different games by hitting a double bullseye behind my back and slow motion practice is what got me to that point of understanding the movement while repeating it consistently. The motion is kind of the same as a granny shot but with one hand. I'd put a 2 gram dart on my middle finger with the flight around the tip pad and the tip of the dart pointing towards my hand. Swinging somewhat like rolling a bowling ball but with my fingers and palm making an "L"shape until the point of release which was stopping my arm while straightening my hand. Straightening my hand put rotation on the dart so that it flipped over to hit the board tip first. It doesn't miss much to the left or right because the entire motion is on that center line. The aim was more an up and down practice of fine tuning to get it down. I'd sometimes do overhand for specific numbers that were more horizontal but underhand has more hitting by missing on vertical numbers. That's what I equate slow motion practice from my experience most because it helped me figure out how to do it and I have always practiced it slow motion in between my turns.
I can see reason that it would help Smoak, though it certainly doesn't fix everything. I did read about him looking for certain pitches and locations the last month+ while reading up on opposing pitching as well, 2 things he claimed were fairly new for him. Sounds like he's doing everything he can to figure it out, so it's not even just slow mo practice of his swing. I'm hopeful at least and would not be surprised by progress.

5

If Smoak can now execute his swing in 30-second-time, and stay comfortably balanced the whole time, then in a sense it doesn't matter* which swing tweaks he made.  He's still going to get the childlike freedom that goes with a slo-mo'able sports motion.
I share your hope that Bledsoe attended to the little things like keeping weight underside, breathing right, unhinging the wrists late, etc.
As far as repeatability through the season ... I can't imagine that, in June, he won't be standing in his hotel room taking a few slo-mo swings, and they'll be the same ones, no doubt.  Once you get a taste for the slo-mo you never go back.  I still, 15 years later, occasionally get up and practice old aiki stuff in super slo-mo.  It's fun to do.
Thanks for that Pops ;- )

6

If he doesn't have any, he's seriously stepping on toes getting any public mention at all in conjunction with Smoak's (potential) success -- which would explain why Baker, among the writers available, was the one who broke code to mention it :- )

7

Moe, would you say that in a sense, the relaxed swings that PGA players take before a pitch shot, that those are in a sense slo-mo swings?  They're feeling their balance from start to finish, no?

9

PRECISELY Wishiker!  :: standing O ::
Hatha / power yoga exploits the phenomenon you cite.  Slow power movements, pulse under 120, the mind can still process information ...
It mimicks hunting and gathering, calm alertness while moving powerfully.  Insanity, P90X, MMA home workouts, they've all discovered it.
Below 120-125, you can think.  Above 125, you can't.  Guys step in the cage and whale away, breathing heavily, making EXPLOSIVE fast-twitch movements, and can't think straight.
GREAT post.

10

Double bull behind your back?!  Do you have a northwest ranking? 
Keep that darts mastery in your hip pocket chief.  We're going to need it when we look at Paxton and Hultzen :- )
............
I wonder if it's common for tournament darts players to work on their motions using slo-mo?

11

is an agency representing MLB players, that also seems to provide "life-coach" support as well. (http://bledsoebrothers.com) Hunter Bledsoe is Justin Smoak's agent, but is also trying to help him avoid some of the issues that made Hunter a highly-rated prospect but journeyman player. They are also cross-linked with the baseball think tank, (http://baseballthinktank.com) which is similar to Mike Bard's (http://www.bardosdiamondsports.com) private coaching service that Michael Saunders used. Boras provides these types of services to his clients as well, so it seems to be a growing trend (just as long as they don't use Biogenesis as their medical/nutritional consultants).
What I find interesting about both Hunter Bledsoe's and Mike Bard's approach is the emphasis on the mental aspect - the "Inner Game" (pace Galway) so to speak. As pointed out by Jemanji/Dr. D/Jeff, much of this has its basis in Oriental philosophy, whether it is Zen or Budo or Yoga. The complex interplay between concept and performance was worth the several posts of today - I would suggest that it could continue to be filled out by looking at the differences and similarities between what Saunders, Smoak, Franklin, and Montero did with their off-season, and how this inter-relates with Dr. Elliott's programs to strengthen the bodies of the M's players. The union of mind, spirit, and physical performance is fascinating.
Teams are hiring "performance" coaches these days (didn't the Ms have one for a while?). While these could be the modern equivalent of the "carny-show hypnotist" in "the Natural", (losing is a disease ... as contagious as...) having spent a year in India and having a great appreciation for both Hinduism and the Sufi strain of Islam, I would say that trying other ways of thinking to approach problems always helps clarify them, and that clarity (truth) is what we all seek, no matter where we start. Whether it is in sport, or in war, or in family life, duty, loyalty, and responsibility are concepts we all have to come to grips with in many ways. Doing our utmost can be both an essential element, and a stumbling block, to success. Yet our duty and responsibility to our families, our community, our nation, and our God demand our utmost; what Hindus call dharma, and how the Sufis interpret jihad. How Saunders and Smoak are learning to deal with this duty to be the best they can be has, as Jemanji keeps pointing out to us, lessons for each of us. I, for one would like to know more, and from varying points of view.
This site is special because it not only entertains, as does LL, and informs, as does USSM, and Scout, and Sickels at MiLB/SBN; but it is the best at helping us understand what goes on with the Mariners, including what it really means to strive and to succeed in human society, indeed, in life. Sports is a part of life. Whether it is simply striving for excellence within specified rules and bounds, or a metaphor for War I'm not really sure. I am sure that it is fun to follow, challenging to understand, and makes me more empathetic to all struggle. Keep it up, all of you who contribute.

12

I had one for a moment...wasn't quite that into it. The cafe I hung out in had a bar where my older friends were playing in weekly unsanctioned buy in cash tournaments. I figured the underhand out when I was 20 on a board just outside the bar. Played in those tournaments a long time but the bar died mainly from the smoking ban. Played league for a couple months some years later but never really got back into it. I had serious mental issues with throwing overhand and overthinking but looking back I also didn't slow practice overhand. I can still warm up in a couple games though. It's been 10 years since I played regularly. Behind the back was just like a bowling motion behind my back and I just had to figure out my footing to line up the same.
Underhand wasn't most commonly how I played a full game and behind the back was mostly just a lark I'd pull out here and there. I'd Switch from time to time and throw one way for a period then switch if I was having trouble finding it. Behind the back was mostly just when I had the game in hand and just needed bullseye, miss a turn or 2 then say let's try this. Good time to practice is when you're ahead and almost done so the doubles behind the back weren't big pressure, though there's some inherent with pulling out something that seems silly like that.
Actually recently got a lesson in Aikido from someone who is trying to open a Dojo right now out in Walla Walla. That exact disable on a knife attack was one of the things and I can tell you as a novice it wasn't easy to repeat at parties. He actually showed probably more than 5 variations from the initial side step. Actually showed different possible steps too but generally it was stepping to the knife side. I did one a couple times within a month after, but I've not practiced otherwise. Moving out there for business soon and furthering with him is something I'm looking forward to.
And on darts, I love that day 2 on "the Next Knuckler" used darts to get the idea of release on a knuckler. They didn't mention it at all, but the release is very similar with a dart or knuckler. Overhand, of course.

13
IcebreakerX's picture

I'm still worried about the direction of this club. I love some of the roster decisions, but for me, this one is just befuddling. Like Figgins! I called him an overpriced Mark McLemore when he signed Figgy!.
But case in point is Carp vs. Smoak/Moneyball Beane vs. Zduriencik/Results vs. Potential. All the tai-chi, slow swing, heavy bat stuff is great, but at the end of the day, isn't this just basically closer to banking on scouting reports than minor league results. I would really love this if this storyline was with Carp, he of many HRs and 2Bs as a farmhand, but it's with Smoak and his mediocre minor league past and a historically airheaded baseball mind.
Why should I give Big Z a pass on this? And if I should buy in, is this pass based on the fact that GMZ is a really good talent evaluator, a GM that is exploiting market inefficiencies, or just a good repackaged pre-Moneyball GM?

14

Only after the motion is practiced until it occurs without thinking, is it useful in actual defense...
It sound like in darts you achieved that level of mastery, one in which you could pick up a dart after ten years and probably hit a basic 20 within the first few throws... that's the kind of effortless mastery they're talking about ... "a lesson in Aikido" isn't quite enough :- ) as you giving me a lesson in darts isn't quite enough...
...........
When you target, Wishiker, what are you visualizing (a) as your stroke goes forward and (b) at the point of release?
Are you visualizing the whole flight of the dart in an arc, or visualing the target, or picturing the dart going through the target, or what?
Is it the same when you throw behind your back?

15

I wouldn't bet you anything I was afraid to lose, that Carp wouldn't hit more home runs in the major leagues than Justin Smoak.
I dunno whether it's FEASIBLE to choose Carp over Smoak, in view of the fact that they invested Cliff Lee on Smoak.  Maybe it's not politically a viable option?
Couldn't agree more.  If I were Zduriencik I'd be scared spitless over what Carp is going to do next, including THIS year.  Would anybody be surprised if he hit 30+ homers and started finishing in the top 15 in RBI every year?

16

For getting injured at a REALLY inconvenient time and preventing a more thorough evaluation of his worth. ;-)
Carp blew the year because he fell on his arm and later hurt himself again. With 500+ more ABs it would be much easier to tell what Carp is worth vs Smoak. But you can't keep everybody and like you said, there may be political capital at work with Smoak. Personally I would have kept Carp and demoted Smoak by designating him to AAA (he should still have an option left). That keeps all our options in house.
But Carp's injuries really screwed the pooch. Is he really talented? Was he really lucky for half a season? He's 27 years old so he should be in his prime. If anybody was gonna go somewhere else and light it up for 5 years, it should be him.
Of course there are a lot of those guys I would say had that potential, and few of them live up to it. Carp's separated shoulder could haunt us - but long-term only if Smoak isn't performing. Smoak had the same length of awesome performance that Carp did, he just has far more performance that makes us doubt that spark of awesomeness.
If Carp pulls a Kila Ka'aihue or Mike Jacobs, nobody is gonna miss him much. If he pulls a Mike Morse, then yes there will be missage.
If Smoak finally does what a man with his talent SHOULD DO, then we won't have to worry about Carp either way.
~G

17

... isn't going to be making the guys who draw MLB(TM) paychecks real comfortable.  There's always the implication that "since you couldn't get it done, pal, here I am" ... the threat is all the more acute since the Bledsoes are apparently quite good at what they do, as well as coming from a fresh (and lively) paradigm.
Gotta hear more about India and Hinduism at some point.  A real area of ignorance for me.  ::daps 571::

18

If GMZ had not signed Raul, he could have kept both Carp & Smoak. In my view, the mistake made by GMZ was to sign Raul to a multi-million dollar contract, which immediately made Carp superfluous, independent of Smoak's progression/regression. When GMZ makes a move that I don't grok initially, I endeaver to look at the deal from all angles until I gain an understanding of GMZ's motives/process. Applying that prcess to the Raul signing, the only rationale that I can come up with is that GMZ is fully convinced that Carp will never pan out. If GMZ is wrong, and Carp turns out to be a solid major league contributor, GMZ has, in my opinion, made a significant mistake, regardless of what happens to Smoak.

19

One of the problems that MLB is facing is the increasingly adversarial relationship between the players (and their agents) and the clubs on medical and performance issues. Although the Red Sox and Mets have taken the most flack for it, it is now common for agents to second-guess team doctors and ask for independent assessment of injuries. While I don't necessarily believe the Levinson's ACES agency was directly involved in Biogenesis, the encouragement of agents to seek outside advice is a key part of the case to me. At some point there will be not only an approved products list, but approved doctors, approved coaches, etc. Boras is taking the obvious way out - by putting it all into his organization, he ensures his clients are getting proper and reputable advice and treatment, not only about legal matters, but now conditioning and medical matters, too. I expect it will continue and accelerate, and that MLB will be increasing controlled by agents unless a middle ground is reached.
An interesting subject for Geoff Baker, ne pas?

20

Not after the injury disaster that happened to start last year. He's not a good defender there (and hurts himself playing it) and IIRC he doesn't DH particularly well. He plays first base. That's his gig. If he's not gonna play 1B here then he wasn't gonna play here, and that's what it came down to unfortunately.
I didn't want to sign Raul, but I don't think it's Carp's spot he's taking - it seems more like Casper Wells's or Eric Thames's. But I guess we'll see nearer the end of Spring Training.
~G

21

I think Z was extremely intent to add leadership, as so many of our signings seemed to that purpose; Bay, then Ibanez, then Morse have each been considered strong leaders, and already there's a piece on Mariners.com on how Mike Morse has already become a leader.
It is reasonable to suggest that Mike Carp's and Raul Ibanez will have very similar batting lines this season, and that Ibanez ability to buck up the troops made him a more appealing asset in both terms of 'win now' and 'win later' rather than Z believing that Mike Carp is a likely mediocre 1st Baseman. There could well be an acknowledgement by Z that Carp does have a realistic shot at panning out, but the Mariners already have Smoak, and Montero, and Stefen Romero, and Alex Liddi, and Morales could be resigned, and Mike Morse has already basically stated his desire for a lifetime contract. So Mike Carp has to outperform all those other options to deserve being retained, and those odds are reasonably long.

23
Thorson's picture

Most probably don't know this, but team doctors pay for the privilege of being the team doctor. It is a marketing strategy and medical chops/merit has less to do with being chosen than does being the highest bidder. That is why players show little loyalty to the home team docs and often end up going to regional orthopedic superstars - not that we local orthopedists don't think we might have a superstar or two :-) Player agents may have a more global perspective on which doctors are worth going to see for treatment for their high profile clients.

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Ibanez is on the team to serve as Wedge's liason to the rest of the 25 man roster and an insurance bench bat - nothing more. That liason role is just not one Carp could fill.

25
bsf's picture

My personal opinion of the whole Carp-hype is that people are overhyping him/overvaluing his upside based on a short sample (with .343 BABIP and 22% HR/FB), because he is the only home-grown, long-term alternative to Smoak.
While his power could be plus, his BB- and K-rates are minuses, and up to now he hasn't shown he could produce enough ISO to offset that. His Fielding is a minus, his running is a minus.
Ibanez is Mike Carp as an outfielder with the added bonuses of being a clubhouse leader and having a 10% lower K-rate. There is a reason why Carp has never been more than a B- in Sickels lists and was downgraded to C directly afterwards.
There is a lot of reason to assume that Carp will never be more than a useful but easily replaceable piece. Of course he has a nice ceiling, but the chances of him reaching it are too slim, and the most likely MID-scenario is just not enough. There's only a certain number of roster spots and it wasn't worth wasting a spot on him just because he was out of options.
And, to be honest, neither would it have been fair to him. He can compete now for the Red Sox, instead of sitting on the Mariners' bench.

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