POTD Jo-El, prognosis

=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Good Jo-El.  I have no idea whether Jo-El's screwball will move like a monkey in 2010.  No idea whatsoever.   There's a good 40% chance that it will, IMHO.

If it does move like that, and he comes over to the AL, well... he gets the benefit of the novelty again.

And Jo-El's two-seam movement isn't his only weapon.  This guy throws five pitches, can hump up to 92-93, and throws a ball into a teacup.   If he's got the +1 to +2 run value on the fastball also, he'll star for another year or two.


Bad Jo-El.  Supposing that Jo-El loses the magical movement on his two-seamer, as I would be very concerned that he would ....

Then, he's still a 1.0, 2.0 BB per game guy, tremendous command, smoke and mirrors, and he's the kind of pitcher who doesn't beat himself.  He can regress quite a ways, and still be an average-solid pitcher.  Most of a player's value is in his being average.

Objectively speaking, he'd be a real good fit for Safeco.


=== Baseball HQ ===

Get yer Forecasters here.  :- )  He ships quick.

In our last edit, we looked Jo-El up in our Forecaster, and were again very pleased to see that Shandler is right.  ;- )  He sez,

Significant jump in GB and CTL fueled this surprise, and xERA says it was legit.  But poor DOM, lucky HR/9 and past health issues leave little room for error.  Could have a window, but history says bet against.

Which is an exec sum of these two SSI articles.

In Shandler-speak, "this surprise" means that Joel wasn't just lucky -- that he pitched very well.   But also points out that Piniero is defying gravity -- and that if he does defy it for another couple years, that will be the extent of it.  Roto owners can pirate a year or two of stardom from Jo-El, but be ready to jump ship quickly.

That'll do for us too.

... admittedly, Ron projects Jo-El for only $12 of roto value, compared to $21 last year.   But he has Jo-El for a 4.03 ERA and a 3.83 xERA.  In Safeco, with our defense, that's what, a 1.50 ERA.


=== $15m?  Are You KIDDIN' Me ===

Dave Duncan taught Pineiro some kind of magic pitch, and Jo-El used it for one year to blow up the NL. 

 Last year, Pineiro was a 40-run pitcher, hard on the barrelhead.  He was worth every blinkin' inch of $20m.  2-3 years times $12m per season would be the minimum you'd expect, but the word is that he's looking at a mere 2 x $7.5m.

It would be one thing if Pineiro wanted four years.  He doesn't.  Two is okay.  And that's what I would want to give Jo-El.


No wonder the agents are frustrated.  If you're not Jason Bay or John Lackey, you're just as liable to get hosed by the owners this winter.  Any doubt WHAT SO EVAH about your production and you've got to go begging.

On an ROI basis, suppose you've got a 60% shot of Jo-El being league average, $8m salary, and a 40% shot of him being worth $20m.  What's that come to?

Piniero is asking, apparently, just to be paid as an average SP.  The "flier" you're taking -- that he'll be good, like he was when you last saw him -- is gravy.


Would I be interested in Pineiro at 2 x $9m?

  • FIP, 2009
  • 3.09 - Felix
  • 3.11 - Cliff Lee
  • 3.15 - Jon Lester
  • 3.23 - Dan Haren
  • 3.27 - JO-EL
  • 3.37 - CC Sabathia
  • 3.63 - Josh Beckett

Jo-El might regress to league-average.  Or he might not.


Dr D



I don't want to do multiple years for a rotation filler.  That's how Bavasi screwed this team.
I'd rather take Washburn's zero upside average-solid MOR status on a one-year deal than Jo-El's 30% potential to be better than Washburn on a 2-year or longer deal.

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