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Q. NOW could you get to the good?
A. Jones is listed at 230, looks 260, and when he hits 'em they stay hit. His average HR last year was over 400 feet and the exit velocity was 105 - average.
His HR's, in real games, are classic "Home Run Derby" shots, pulled to straightaway left, 425 feet. And here comes the good part -- in 2012, he got better at picking his pitch and launching it. His pull rate went up in 2012.* He's been in the majors a few years, he's acclimated, and he's launching home runs deliberately.
We're going to keep going over it until it gains some traction ... right now sabermetricians think that Flyball/Groundball ratio is either random, or just a function of a hitter's swing plane.
No, actually there is a distinct SUBSET of batted balls: that subset of fly balls that a hitter anticipates, and loads up on, and pulls in the air. Balls pulled in the air are baseball's most dangerous events, and that's the "big victory" for the batter that disappears into the sinkhole of generalized fly ball data.
Jones actually did get better at this in 2012. You can be sure that if Zduriencik's scouts are excited, this is precisely the reason why.
Dr. D is not excited, because at age 32 the reflexes are going to go, just as Jones learns his craft. But still, we have to acknowledge Jones' plusses.
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Q. He's got quite a platoon split.
A. Yes he does. And it's not "sample size" -- it's who he is as a human being. Jones' painfully slow bat launch won't allow him to deal with lefthand pitchers (LH-on-LH cuts the reaction time down).
But now supposing that Jones is going to be STRICTLY platooned, and we mean STRICTLY platooned, well ... he did SLG .556 last year against righties. You're talking about 35 homers and 35 doubles a year, pro-rated ... Jay Bruce, Robinson Cano type power, for those games in which a righty is on the mound.
... even in 2011, before he was really comfortable in the bigs, you're talking a .462 SLG, 20 homers and 35 doubles pro-rated ... trace it all the way back and you're talking about Mike Carp's best-case analysis. ... that is, comparing [Jones vs RHP] to [Carp overall].
There's our theme again: hurry hurry hurry. Let's have Carp's best, this April 2012.
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Q. Is this shrill?
A. No, the emphasis on 2012 is FINE with Dr. D. Then emphasize 2013 in 2013. Then emphasize 2014 in 2014. Does Billy Beane do otherwise? Do the Red Sox? Do the Rangers?
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Q. He's an arb player.
A. Yes, so you're talking about the 2nd or 3rd bat of the winter ... we presume.
The man's 32 years old: you are talking about one and done.** He's like a rental. And that's okay by me.
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Q. Which leaves us where?
A. They BETTER not be trading no cotton-pickin' John Jaso for this lug. But (1) deployed as a platoon guy, and (2) against the backdrop of something like a Tom Wilhelmsen conversion, Jones could wind up looking like a Beane rental.
Hey, a lot of people cried about Josh Willingham last year. Jones could give you a coupla platoon years on that level.
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BABVA,
Dr D
** 18:10:9 ratio last year is better than career generally; am sure if you iso'ed vs RHP's and flyballs you'd see more "back leg specials."
**Maybe two and through. Like Branyan.
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This can't be a trade Z proposed, can't be. Has to have come from the Pirates. If...If it is a trade that Z has initiated discussion on, then he's terribly desperate, and that's dangerous.
If you want somebody who kills RHP, just roll out Jaso.
Don't get this one.
moe
So, yeah, I think the rumors are Pittsburgh-slanted.
But ... while I wouldn't leap for joy if Jones were picked up, I don't quite understand the negativity.
He has 2000+ non-hypothetical non-projected real-world plate appearances and has a .466 SLG and .207 ISO and 4.2 HR/PA%.
That doesn't just fall out of the sky (Casper Wells: .435, .189, 3.8%, for one non-random comparison).
His eye? His BB rate is 8.6 and K rate is 20.4% ... perfectly adequate in my book and actually pretty good for a slugger. Again, compare Wells: 7.6% BB rate, 25.9% K rate.
And ...please keep in mind ... we need outfielders. So I'm not as negative as Doc on this one.
I do, however, get the negative reaction to giving up Jaso, but I think if it was even discussed it was in the context of "if we sign Napoli."
Spec,
He will, indeed, hit more than a few balls a long way. What confuses me is the weirdness of the guys we're rumored to be wooing and the inconsistent message it seems to say about the guys we have. First we chase a mashing DH/1B/C even though we have a cornucopia of catchers. Then we move off of him for a glove-first catcher, then off of him for a 1B/DH/RF, evidently dangling a catcher as bait.......evidently because we decided that Zunino is the guy after all.
This is all pretty dang scattergunned.
Confusing is the operative word here.