Rookies Zunino, Miller, Romero Skating on Thin Ice
Cold water below, if they don't tighten their strike zones

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SSI is, as you know, a data-rich environment.  Dig the sophistication of this chart:

Batter OPS+
Zunino 135
Miller 102

Both rookies have contributed importantly to the first half-dozen Mariner victories.  Zunino, for example, has XBH in 3 of the M's 9 games, and the Mariners won all of these games.  Yes, we'll continue to track this "garbage" Zunino RBI stat until it blurs into oblivion.   Getting triples and homers out of your worst hitter ... It's kind of like saying you were 7-and-2 in weekend series every time your #5 starter threw a "Mega Quality Start."

The M's have gotten a legitimately hot start with the bats.  Thusly the hot-ness:

  • 108 OPS+
  • 45 runs in 9 games, that's like five runs a game at least
  • This against A's pitching and (mostly) star-power Angels pitching
  • This in the coldest weather of the year!
  • Very decent K/BB and Zone% peripherals for most players

But there are lizards in the cellar:

Batter OPS+ BB K
Zunino 135 0 10
Miller 102 1 14
Romero   0 5 (in 14 PA's)

If Zunino and Miller and Romero were to maintain those EYE ratios ... they would not only be in for 50 OPS+ Judgment Day, they'd also be out of baseball.  It's cool that Zunino and Miller have contributed, but the eye ratios have to change.

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Q.  So all the rookies are getting a "Welcome to the League, Boy" treatment?

A.  They are, yes.  Except Almonte.  He's not playing like a rookie.   (His K/BB is fine, and he's doing lots of other stuff well, such as seeing 3-2 tease pitches better than the umpires see them.)

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Q.  Why isn't Almonte playing like a rookie?

A.  No idea.  Maybe he's going to play in multiple All-Star games.

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Q.  Will the eye ratios change for the rookies?

A.  Sure.  Bear in mind that vicious pitching, and the cold weather, and that they're rookies.

But the point is:  Ackley, and Smoak, and Seager, and Cano, and Hart, those guys aren't rookies.  Let's keep our eyes on the dudes who are ready to hit in 2014.

The Good Ole Boyz tell ya.  Don't count too much on the rooks, man.  In this case we might ponder it.

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Q.  Good stuff.  Would you send Romero down?

A.  Nah.  Give him a chance.  He's feeling his way, you got 3 games' worth of AB's against great pitching, operative word "pitching." ... let him see a few mistakes, hit a few homers, get his legs under him.  One more thing we like about McClendon's instinct:  he sees it exactly as we do.  Guy must have a brain the size of a dinosaur's.  Wait...

Romero is NOT swinging at balls outside the zone (20%).  Miller and Zunino definitely are (40% plus).  It's them that have to tighten their strike zones; Romero is just 14 AB's.

It's just right field.  We never get any production out of there anyway.

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Q.  Is Seager ready to bust out?

A.  Blowers had a great observation ... Seager laid off a 2-1 tease pitch with the bases jacked, under heavy pressure, Blowers goes "Looks like he's about to groove in."  Next AB, he hit a home run a few inches foul.

It's a Grandmaster's way to watch a hitter -- how well does he see the strikes from the balls, and when there's a pitch it's hard to decide on, and when it's a situation that have the nerves jumping.  There are still bloggers who imagine that Mike Blowers doesn't know a single thing that they don't know.

So Seager is apparently starting to see the ball well.  His EYE is 7:9, and as Shandler would say, he owns the skills that he has showed the last two years.  It will be nice when he starts delivering the 80, 90 RBI.  Maybe tonight against Sonny Gray.

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Q.  Does Smoak still look legit?

A.  I think the A's outfielders are still icing their hands this a.m.  ... After Smoak's RIGHT hand batting.

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Q. Ackley?  

A.  I think he had six hits last night, on six different pitches.  We could be embellishing a little.

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Q.  Is Robinson Cano's OBP going to be .435 this year?

A.  Amazing, the serenity he is showing under the weight of his quarter-billion dollar contract.  You could buy two Boeing airliners for that.  Brand new.

Hey, dudes, we got our Evan Longoria to build around.  We got three left hand kids who are ready to come out of the oven now.  The entire rest of the lineup is looking like it's interested in chipping in as the opportunities arise.

The M's are 6-and-3 against the road guantlet of division rivals, and the offense is close enough for government work.  My Kinda Ballclub.

(TM),

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Miller is the one that I'm worried about. Zunino, I get. He didn't get a ton of ABs in the minors and he's got a LOT on his plate as the primary catcher. Romero is just completely outmatched. He ca recognize the strikes - he just can't do anything with them. But Miller is all out of whack. He's getting himself out an awful lot. He and Seager need to get it together soon or this offense is going to sputter.

2

He's been struggling since the All-Star game last season. His 21.1% BB rate is encouraging, maybe he just needs a little run of finding some holes.

3

Nice to know Franklin is doing okay in Tacoma, maybe the SS competition is going to get competitive again.

4
M's Watcher's picture

It's unfortunate that an untimely bad pitch can have such a negative impact on the outcome of a game, more so than the individual performance of any of the hitters. A general lack of command didn't help either. With Walker and Kuma returning soon, ERam seems to be writing his ticket to Tacoma. Beavan might make him look good in comparison, however.

5

but Smoak is now looking like the same old thing as previous years. At this moment his K% is also sky high. Lots of big, greedy hacks. I'm on Ji-Man Choi watch :) Alright, maybe not yet but soon! If Smoak could just chill and be a bit more relaxed he could turn that final corner but not seeing it too often. Choi and his Joey Votto skills should find a place on this club in a couple months if they could find some 1B and DH time for him. I think he could really bolster our offense at midseason.

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