Definitely seems like a chance for a real win for the M's with negligible downside. How can we not like that? If he's Jamie Moyer it's a steal. If he reverts to previous effectiveness he's not badly overpaid. If he's somewhere in the middle he's still a bit of a bargain.
Q. How much is LeBlanc's deal FOR, anyway?!
A. Thanks to Jonezie for getting a front-page piece up right away. He's so happy with the deal he's typing in tears and he thinks it's worth $32M. So we'll assume he speaks for most of the SSI community in the general spirit.
;- ) just joshin' kiddies
It is hard as Oklahoma dirt to figure out what the deal IS worth. According to this report, it's $2.0M next year, with the other reports of "$2.75M guaranteed" explained by the buyout in 2019.
Or you could figure that the deal is worth as much as $2.75M + $650k x 3 = $4.1M ....
Or you could figure that LeBlanc stands to make as much as $20M or so if he maxes all his incentives in 2018-2021.
My guess is, he gets $2.75M plus nice incentives next year, probably taking him to around $4.5M, and then will get picked up in 2019 to make $3-5M that year, and declined the next year (at 35) for another $650k or so. So, as LeBlanc described it "with voice cracking" per the Times, pretty close to $10M in the MID scenario. That's Dr. D's wild-axed guess.
Q. Nice that the M's would extend him right after two lousy games, eh?
A. (Wade had coughed up 18 H, 10 R and fanned only 4 men in his last 11.1 dubious innings.)
Yes, it's nice ... remembering that contract talks don't take place over a period of two weeks, still, you're talking about a $10-20M deal for a guy 83-86 MPH who had thrown 60 good innings for you, then 10 bad ones. It's the kind of mind-over-mojo discipline that a chessplayer LOVES to see, so one more cool move for Jerry Dipoto in my book.
Flicking on the 'vee tonight, it looked like Wade was having lots of trouble executing again. ... in the first couple innings. Then his command fritzed focused right back in again, and he took down another big lineup.
In context, Dipoto has guaranteed $3, 4M to a guy we all think looks like a good #3-4 starter. How much does he pay for relievers?!
Q. What do you think about Hyphen-18's shrug-off explanation "He wasn't pitching inside for Pittsburgh. Now he is."
A. Hyphen is a fave of mine, but slap me silly, you talk about a guy who will jam all SP's into the same shoe .... Hyphen's thinking about his last couple adjustments in his last year when he's talking about most anybody out on the mound. No, seriously, we love Ryan, but ....
... and it's not like it's not true, that a changeup guy has to cut people inside to survive.
We all saw him in 2016, when he gave up like 4 homers in 11 innings, and his life HR rate is 1.3 with his BB rate 2.8. He's got much better location now than he ever did with us or the Angels, and with that location we're sure it's true that Rowland-Smith's advice about game plans gets implemented with much more force. It does.
Q. What's the Mainframe's final word on the matt'r?
A. Two things:
1. See the comment about reliever money. Were the M's to trade for another TOR they could bullpen LeBlanc - even in future seasons - with no problem. What's Nicasio making?
2. I'll gingerly say that "once a player displays a skill he owns it." LeBlanc has been whicking gnats off buffalo hides all year, and it looks at least like he's become that guy now. Poor man's Jamie Moyer ... or, maybe Malcontent's right and he's Just Jamie Moyer.
I like Wade LeBlanc's chances real well this year and next. Will cheerfully trade ya for him in roto.
...DiPoto locks in one of his 'wins' late enough to be sure it IS a win, and early enough to make it a reasonable deal. I like it.
Exactly. I think one area of true competitive advantage in MLB is definitely the cheap pre-arb extension. You give them financial security and the guarantee that they could have a career-ending injury tomorrow and still retire a millionaire, and in exchange you get a middle-length team-friendly contract that will probably generate massive surplus value with negligible downside. Everyone wins, plain and simple.
JeDi's timing, as you put it waiting late enough to be sure it's a win and then JUMPING on the opportunity, implies a sincere desire to snatch up these deals the second he's confidant he's got a Best Bet on his hands. Good on him. Jean's getting paid for 2 WAR per year, and he's got 2.5 in the first half! Now Wade is getting paid for... like 0.5 WAR. He could get that in the bullpen as a swingman! Simply by remaining in the rotation he will produce surplus value. Just a brilliant signing.
It's fun to see someone get rewarded for good work -- and reasonably so. Hope he maintains for 3+ years.
I’ve been scavaging every promising starter off the roto league Free Agent wire looking for a solid 4-5 to enter the second half with. LeBlanc, I missed on however, and like Doc was expecting an implosion. I should have nabbed him, and it’s killing me with every QS, as the Brendan Coveys and Jake Junises get exposed. So..., like Ric Ocasek’s best friend’s girlfriend, I probably see him as the next Jamie in my mind.
Btw, I know nobody cares about anyone else’s roto team, but Doc needs a regular potato, and I’m gonna give it to him. :-)
I don't know where that dumb rule comes from. Not playing myself, I enjoy hearing about roto-races of others these days.
I enjoy watching him pith and love his demeanor on the mound.
One school of thought says slow ballers like LeBlanc may actually have a greater advantage in the current 100mph pitching environment, since hitters must be twitchy, as opposed to "studying" pitches. I dunno. In my experience, it's much easier to adjust down even after having geared up for heat. But don't listen to me, I was never a good hitter until I graduated to slow pitch softball. I still don't know how he does it, except the obvious Maddox formula: location and mess with timing (isn't 90% of pitching this, even in today's HEAT game?)