... M's 8
M's lineup lookin Dan-G-Russ (for once)

.

Not gonna lie - I hadn't seen Wei-Yin Chen yet.  Wow!  First two hitters and he looked like CJ Wilson out there.  Look him up and, sho' nuff, he had 7+ strikeouts and 2+ walks in 190 innings last year.  That'll teach you to skip out on your rotisserie vegetables for three years.

But, against an aggressive lefty with a plus fastball and nasty offspeed stuff, the Mariners finally -- at game 30 -- looked like the ballclub we were hoping for in spring training.  Eight different hitters who could get you a tough RBI.  (Well, jury's out on Smoak and Montero.)

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HARD RBI NUMBER ONE

Chen blew away Saunders and Seager to start the game.  Blew them away.  But guess what.  That wasn't the entire ballclub.  Not this time.

Kendrys Morales fought off a pitch, softly lining it up the middle.  He's no bargain; his EYE in April was 13:16 (!) and his swing-miss % is only 8.

Michael Morse now has his timing back, and look out.  ... Chen quickly backed him into a 2-strike corner, but ... Samurai Cobra fouled off three (3) different tough pitches, including one with the runner (HA!) going.  On pitch eight, Chen threw a sharp little fastball that broke 2 baseballs' widths below the knees.  Morse laid off.  A verrrry professional walk.

Don't let Morse's BB totals fool you.  His career high in BB's is 36.  That doesn't mean he can't protect the strike zone.  Get that straight!

Jason Bay got a 1-0 slider.  He studiously peered over the plate at it, unsnapped the bat, and RIFLED a double down into the corner.

By "hard RBI" we mean, their best against your best.  It's not garbage time; it's look-you-in-the-eye time.  You didn't score because a blooper fell in, and you didn't score because they fouled up.  They played good, and you kicked their butts.  That's a "hard RBI."

Jason Bay does look good.  He looks quick.  I thought he had no power left, but maybe he does.  Could it really be that New York ruined him?  Wouldn't be the first guy.

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HARD RBI NUMBER TWO

Second inning, M's up 1-0 but their #5 starter on the mound against a white-hot lineup.  M's were still underdogs in the game.

Montero led with a triple.  Just score him with an out.

But Robert Andino feeb'ed it grotequesly, striking out on three fastballs (!) of which the first and third pitches were TAKEN.  ::blarrgggghhhh:: all over my shoes

Thus giving the Mariners EVERY chance to fail ... to even score the 3B runner with 0 out.

.............

Michael Saunders, LH on LH.  You want to see one whale of a vicious pitch sequence?  Here you be:

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Not only were they tight-spin, nasty pitches diving across the zone away from him ... but look at the mix of velocities.  MID.  HARD.  HARD.  SLOW.  MID.

The fifth pitch, on a 2-2 count, was an 82 slider RIGHT ON the black.  Saunders lined it cleanly into right field for the "hard" RBI.

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HARD RBI NUMBER THREE

We'll be concise.  Saunders singled and stole 2B, which is part of why run #3 was a "hard" run against a playoff team.

The ump threw Kyle Seager into a 1-2 hole, calling yet another Chen ball a "strike" on a 1-1 count.  (The M's were called out "strike three" on six different occasions.)  Then on 1-2 Chen hit the black, and Seager could only top it to the shortstop.

With two out, man on second, Kendrys Morales cut down his swing and, intelligently, just knocked a fastball back up the middle for a 3-0 lead.  (This is Kyle Seager's big 2-out RBI key:  don't swing for the fences.)

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LET'S PICK UP SIDES

Fourth and fifth runs scored on Sea_Beast's missile into the right-center seats.  On the telecast, they said that the 2012 Mariners hit only 8 of 147 (?) home runs to the opposite field.  This year it's already 6 of 30.  

In other words, last year's ballclub had very little legitimate power.  Now it has legitimate (dangerous) power.  Granted, that legitimate power is largely Michael Morse.  But there's the center fielder, and perhaps Montero soon, and Seager's dangerous.

............

Sea_Beast is lining RBI singles up the middle and the other way, is hitting HR's the other way, and is back up to speed.  If he stays healthy, what is all y'all's Over/Under for his home run total?

Bill James once said, "if a defensive stat tells you that Johnny Bench is a bad catcher, find a new stat."  Dr. D doesn't know much about baseball, but he does know this little bit:  if a stat tells you that Michael Morse is not a good baseball player, the stat is mistaken.

Nah, I don't mean to be sour about it.  Put it this way, then.  Edgar and Boone were good in 2003.  In the 10 years since, if you had a pool of all Mariner players available, and we were picking teams, the top picks would probably be

  1. Ichiro
  2. Morse
  3. Rauuul, Sexson, or Gutierrez

I think the blog-o-sphere should get this one straight.  With one legendary exception, Michael Morse is probably the best Mariner player, since Edgar and Boone quit.  Acknowledge it.

Perspective:  he was a core player for a playoff team last year.  Keep in mind the situation he came into.

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Dr's Prognosis

Angels and Orioles in rear view mirror.  Cy Young contenders this weekend.  Good weekend for baseball.

Cheers,

Dr D 

 

Blog: 

Comments

1

I have the Mariners pegged for about 200 home runs on the year: 60+ from Morales and Morse, about 80 from Montero, Smoak, Saunders, and Seager, and that leaves about 60 to be hit by the remaining 7 guys, an average of 9 homers each between Guti, Bay, Ibanez, Ackley, Andino, Ryan, Shoppach, and whoever gets called up.
Even if Andino, Ryan, and Ackley fall on their faces and don't get replaced, the Mariners should get pretty close to 200, so I think that's the test for how much you think the Mariner offense can achieve.

2

Don't think I'd argue Morse > Beltre. Other than that, yeah, point taken... though that says something kinda sad about the Mariners, the last ten years.

5

I'd call it pretty even, myself. Morse doesn't seem to be grousing and is actively trying to be the leader and provide spark. That counts for something IF you can also hit 380' line drives or 450' flies when they are needed. Beltre was definitely better in the field, but Morse is better at the plate and in the dugout in my observation.

6

But I wouldn't call it 6/6 on UP scenarios. Smoak, Saunders, Seager and Montero combined for 73 home runs last season, in a bigger stadium, without support, while Smoak, Montero, and Saunders each got 553 PA or fewer. Morse hit 31 in 2011 and has already got a running start to beat that total, Morales hit 34 in '09, and that was awhile ago, so maybe 30 for him is an upside scenario....but expecting Seager, Saunders, Smoak, and Montero to do what they did last season plus 1 for each of them hardly seems like asking for the moon.

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