M's 7 ...
Critical Mass, Dept.

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=== Gameflow ===

The umpire yelled, "Play Ball."

Jarrod Parker reared back and fired a bullet to Michael Saunders, 91 MPH, low and away, catching a good piece of the strike zone.

Michael Saunders directed his ki up the middle, reached out, and WHHAAACKKKED the ball down the 3B line for a clean single.  Yoenis Cespedes did well to get over and cut it off quickly.

Saunders rounded first, smiled broadly, and tipped his cap to somebody in the stands.  "Thanks for the tip on going the other way."  He got set to work Parker for the stolen base.

.............

Jarrod Parker suddenly realized -- yes, he did -- that he was facing this situation:

  • 110 OPS+ - Michael Saunders, 2012
  • 110 OPS+ - Kyle Seager, 2012
  • 130 OPS+ - Kendrys Morales, last three years (.306, 34 HR, 108 RBI in 2009, e.g.)
  • 135 OPS+ - Michael Morse, last three years (.300/.360/.550 in 2011, e.g.)
  • Raul Ibanez, NYY, batting fifth

Stop, for a moment, thinking about what you feel about that lineup.  Rather, consider for a moment what a major league pitcher feels about those five players.

You, gentle reader, need some convincing as to the Mariners' 2013 lineup; you've got a lot of aversion conditioning to overcome before you'll feel better.  But in the eyes of a major league pitcher, Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, and Raul Ibanez aren't Mariners.  To those inside the game, those three players are, respectively, the #5 hitter for the Angels ... the #4 hitter for the Nationals ... and the #6 hitter for the Yankees.

Had you noticed that Wedge had taken his two good 2012 Mariner hitters, and moved those two up top in front of his three MOTO hitters?

............

So Parker, having given up a leadoff hit, was staring down the barrel of four legit MLB(TM) middle-of-the-order hitters.  Jarrod Parker was in trouble.  

You'll remember the feeling - like last year, when Blake Beavan gave up a sharp single to start the game, and the MOTO of the Yankees or Angels was standing on deck.  It's the first inning, and we're trying to avoid a loss, right here and now.

Dr. D looked on in utter disbelief as Parker proceeded to nibble, pick, and otherwise grovel his way through the Mariner lineup for the rest of the night.  Fastballs were either two feet outside or just barely ticking a corner.  Offspeed pitches arrived early and often.  

Jarrod Parker was scared of the Seattle Mariner lineup.

Did the Mariners "take the walks given them"?  That's true, but not accurate.  What the Mariners did was chase Jarrod Parker out of the strike zone.

...........

Fangraphs, this winter, proposed 5 players as "THE most average / mediocre players in the major leagues," players who were right at the 2.0 WAR mark.  Kendrys Morales was on the list.  I thought Michael Morse was on the list, but I guess he couldn't have been; his player card actually shows him at 0.0 WAR for last season.

WAR is an excellent tool, used as one tool in the belt.  But to a man who only owns a hammer, every problem becomes a nail.  The Mariners' problem was that their offense had fallen below critical mass, and they needed two RBI men.

Let's be fair here.  The consensus, elsewhere, was that Morales and Morse are barely worth having on the roster.  Baker's view, my view, and Zduriencik's view, is that those two players are (in this particular situation) franchise-changers.  

When intelligent points of view are THIS divergent, you have a chance to learn something!

............

The Mariners scored in 5 of 9 separate innings.  They had rallies in 3 other innings.  At one point, the score was still only 3-1, and Dr. D was thinking, what is the baserunner count?  10 to 2?  

The Mariners have bullied the A's in these first two games.  The scores don't do the situation justice.  I'm expecting a beanball tomorrow if the M's have another 11-2 baserunner situation.

"Pure" sabermetricians want experimental proof that sports psychology is about confidence.  They've forgotten taht not all truth is established via repeatable experiment.  Court cases aren't.  Proofs of love, and courage, and honor, aren't.  Historians and detectives don't use experiments to find truth.

If you've ever shot a basketball in an organized league environment, you "get it" about sports performance and confidence.  Athletes perform well when confident, and badly when tentative.  Becoming confident isn't as simple as "well, I played AAA baseball; I'm used to pressure."  Sabermetricians assume that all pro athletes are totally confident, and therefore equally confident.  That isn't what the athletes themselves tell you, though. 

The M's rallied in, like, every inning.  The A's ran a 114 team ERA+ last season, and they started their #1 and #2 pitchers in these games.  Jarrod Parker looked like he'd rather be anywhere other than in a baseball stadium.  You can't see the difference in the 60-odd battles between pitcher and hitter so far?

............

Perhaps Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse would be appropriately valued at 2.0 WAR for some rosters.  But not for this one, gentlemen, not for this one.

I hope you enjoyed the game.  And I hope that the blog-o-sphere is able to man up and give Zduriencik credit for properly analyzing the offseason problem.  Nothing wrong with having a light bulb go on.

Now, about that Morse extension...

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Blog: 

Comments

1
glmuskie's picture

The best thing about the M's new lineup is, you go through the heart of the lineup, and THEN you've got 3 of maybe the 20 best young hitting prospects in the past few years coming up, in Smoak, Ackley and Montero. It's a completely different feel than since, oh, 2001.
Also, HUGE props to Z/Wedge who have installed Montero as, basically, the full time catcher. This has not been talked about enough. After last year, with all the scoffing of the pundits, and hand-wringing of the fans, and criticisms from the Mariners management, I figured we'd hit opening day and Shoppach would be behind the plate. Nada.
With the big-bat-small-glove outfield the M's are willing to throw out there now occasionally, and a bat-first catcher behind the plate, the M's are showing that they either are flexible in their thinking, or have learned something the past few years. Either way, I'm good with it.

2

Watching Morse, I remembered that he used to be a shortstop -- to me the guy looks like a heckuva of an athlete. Nice over-the-shoulder running catch in 1st inning. No comparison between him and Jaso in terms of "impact" player.

3

Or at least what the Mariners have viewed as the Holy Grail: MOTO hitters who can clear a fence or at least clear the bases. Jaso is a good hitter, but HRs aren't really his bag. The chance to trade a platoon bat (even a very good one) for a hitter who can crush balls out of any ballpark was too much to resist.
Especially with Zunino and Hicks on the way up behind Montero - it's not like we were hurting for catchers and (as Saunders finally started taking advantage of) Jaso's arm isn't Wrath of God stuff behind the plate.
Now, we didn't necessarily trade for all that many MORE at-bats (which you would think would be the case in trading a platoon bat for an every day one). Morse has 500+ at-bats in just one year, after all. He got his chance to be an everyday starter later than most, but has had some injury issues as well.
But when he's in the lineup, there will be power lurking.
Same with Morales. We gave up a #5 starter, gave his money to Iwakuma instead (which I believe is the better plan), dragged Joe Saunders off the scrap heap for a year (I don't like that part of the plan, but Erasmo will be back soon) and got a switch-hitting MOTO bat in the process.
Seager looks like the same guy from last year who will rip doubles. Saunders did damage at the plate and on the bases. Smoak...
Man, Smoak looks like the early-2011 version at the plate if not yet in the box score. The Oakland announcers were shocked on a fairly routine foul ball that Smoak hit that was WAY gone down the opposite field line. They had stunned silence for a couple of seconds. "Did you see where he hit that thing? Most guys can't go that far in this park the opposite way. ...That went a LONG way..."
I know Justin's line says "1 for 6 with 3 walks and 2 Ks" but talk about lurking. There's no raincloud over his head so far this year, just some as-yet-unfulfilled menace in his bat.
The lineup against righties looks like we could do some damage. Justin is gonna need to bring it against lefties, and then we'll see what Bay has in the tank. Morales is a nominally a switch-hitter but he's kinda terrible against LHP. Morse can't carry the offense against lefties by himself.
Well...probably not, anyway. And if Montero would stop flying out harmlessly that'd be good too. The kids will have to do work on those left-handers, but if I was a righty facing this lineup I would not be thrilled.
Especially since the players themselves seem much more comfortable. Remember the last few years when I've been begging for experienced MOTO hitters so Seager and Smoak and Ackley aren't trying to do all the heavy lifting? I guess we'll see how the psychology of not being the hub of the offense pays off for them.
Should be a fun year if the pitching holds up. Tonight's starter I have far less faith in than the last two nights'.
~G

4

The two 110 OPS+ guys from last year
Morales, Morse, Ibanez
The three Top 10 BBA prospects
Ryan
It just looks cool to see Smoak, Montero, and Ackley come up as a trio, bottom of the lineup, no pressure, just BBA Heroes as collateral damage.  Definitely my fave lineup.  Gutierrez for Ibanez probably makes a better team, but you lose the symmetry.

5

People have been angry at the M's for their supposed insincerity about Montero's catching.  
The trade of Jaso could have disabused folks of that notion, but apparently not.  

6

When they run Morse and Ibanez at the corners, I'm watching carefully for marginal plays.  There was ZERO cost to the outfield in game two, not even potentially...
Yeah, looked to me like Morse ran pretty well out there.  Did Jay Buhner make that catch, do you think?  Lotta big boys in right field in the AL.  Not sure now how much Morse is even going to cost us defensively.

7

Followed by a goofy laugh.  Not only was the throw a joke, the entire delivery from start to finish was laughable.
I like Jaso.  Really well.  But after that throw I'm thinking, let's get some guys on first base and let's get on with this track meet.

9

We can tell by Wedge's defensive substitution for Raul last night, leaving Morse in the game, that the Sgt trusts Morse's defense over Raul's. Concerning last night's catch, I say it's only 50/50 that Buhner catches that ball because he doesn't have the reach of Morse, and I don't think Jay ran much faster, particularly later in his career. Morse's runnng catch was a real eye-opener for me -- if Morse can play even half-way decent corner OF defense, he, in my opinion, is MUCH more valuable to us than I originally thought. In fact, that may be one reason for DFA'ing Wells -- Morse may not require a defensive replacement as much as we thought when he was acquired. Based on last night's game on both offense and defense, GMZ should be working on the contract extension paperwork, right now.

10

He looked at least the equal of (the 32-year-old) Buhner on that play.
I'd also assumed that Morse was a serious defensive liability, but if he's more towards "mediocre," that's big.  There are a lot of lumbering RF's around the game -- Nelson Cruz, Markakis, Choo now, Boesch, Bautista, etc.
Personally I'll be keeping an eye on how Morse stacks up to guys like Choo and Bautista.  His agent might have some interest in that too...

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