M's 4, Rangers 3
M's crawling out of the coffin in the Homestand, in the Division, in the Metaphor

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THE STATE OF THE M'S IN 7 BULLET POINTS

1  Sitting on an OPS+ of 112, and facing the Rangers' easiest pitcher, M's fans settled in for 8 runs by the ballclub and 3 hits by Ben Gamel.  (True, the M's have only scored 8+ runs in 6 of the last 13 games, but they're still *THIS* close to 5.00 runs per game.  In Safeco.)

We setted in for 8.  What we got was zero runners past first base for, oh, two three hours real time.  "Fate of the Furious" made thirty, forty million bucks during the time it took the Mariners to get a runner into scoring position.  Tell me that's not microcosmic.

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2  With a 3-0 lead, the Rangers walked ten or twelve Mariners in the 7th to throw away their win.  Takeaway:  the Mariners play in an easy division.  (With one exception.)  They're now within a series, -2.5 games, of the playoffs, behind ... Minnesota.  

From here, let's play two!  Preferably with the Phillies, who have lost 8 of 10.  Then preferably a 4-gamer with the worst team in the American League, which as you knew would be the Blue Jays.

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3  But that's the M's thing, letting pitchers throw bad pitches.  If the pitchers are gonna.  The Mariners' hitters are #5 out of 30 offensive lineups in the esoteric stat OOZ%, also known as fishing.  And half of what garbage swings the ballclub has taken we can safely blame on Leonys Martin, who has graduated to slow infield rollers at Tacoma.

But maybe the Mariners are good because they've whittled their position players down to the best 10-11 in the organization.  That's kind of cheap, but it makes the stats look good.  

Also, note in passing while we talk about Heredia and Gamel. It so happens Dipoto and Servais have installed their culture.  Meanwhile the two quintessential Zduriencik batters, Mark Trumbo and Brad Miller, are OPS'ing 63 and batting .198, respectively.  Getting a new approach at the plate was approximately as easy as a liver transplant.  But we'll take our chances with the new 27.0% fish rate, thanks Jack.

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4  We no sooner noticed at SSI that the M's have 5 good relievers than --- > Scott Servais paraded exactly these relievers through the OF wall turnstile.  (The night before, Gaylerd sat in the booth chuckling likably about his 300+ complete games.  Admirable, and the current career leader Sabathia has 38 complete games.  True, in 1976 you weren't limited to a 2% chance of victory if behind by 3-1 in the sixth; they let you have a fair chance to come from behind and win.  It was a better game that way.)

The Mariners' "new" lockdown relief aces throttled the Rangers like Rambo taking down a water anaconda in a 1980's mugfest.  No, honestly, Vincent-Scrabble-Diaz struck out 5 men in the last two innings.  Vincent's appearance was the goriest.  Why hitters cannot SEE Nick Vincent's pitches -- even in day games! -- I don't get, but I like it.  You?

Maybe Billy Zoom will be kind enough to explain what the optical illusion is all about with Nick Vincent.

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5  Kyle Seager showed his true colors, which are to hit the glory shot winning the homestand, and then stare blankly into the camera like Tim Duncan.

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6  Sudden Jean Segura had two hits and a walk, this on a day where Andrew Cashner was untouchable.  SABRMatt solemnly swears that Sudden is perfectly capable of batting .370.  How they're going to get him out .630 is what we'd prefer Matt explain to us.

This guy is a shortstop.  Then again, so is Corey Seager.  Let's keep track which one wins.

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7  Your comment below.

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Enjoy,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1
tjm's picture

Basically throws three different fastballs, none of which move a ton, but all of which move a little in different directions. It's not that batters are not seeing it; it's that they're seeing it but not knowing what it is.

3

Here is his movement chart from Sunday and his Brooks game log.

Here is his Texasleaguers.com page for 2017 and you seem to be right on point Terry -- three fastballs 87-89 MPH, one that fades armside, one that cuts gloveside, one the hops up. Along with the "slider."

Amazing what a baseball's width of real movement can do.

...

"Can't see the pitch" is a figure of speech, naturally.  Meaning the eyes aren't used to that kind of ball.

4

Clemente weighed in at 175, spotting Segura 30 lbs, and he was a bit more elbows and angles at the plate.

But the low-hand set up  and the "centeredness" of his weight transfer (which comes with the low hands, I think) reminds me of Clemente, a lot.

5

Don't get the reference.  That's my lifetime fave sport, as it happens, P90X.  Tony Horton is a big role model.

7

How many games have the Mariners lost despite the opponent being wild and walking a bunch of people? We did still need to get a hit from Valencia to tie it and the glory shot from Seager to win it. :)

9

Matt, I agree that we should see a patient approach from our hitters when facing a good starting pitcher, hoping to get into their bullpen.

But against weak starting pitchers, or a team with a lockdown bullpen, our hitters should be in attack mode. Make something happen before you run out of opportunity and the ball gets handed to Betances/Miller/Chapman to close it out, for example.

10

...they've been doing that, though.

They've been attacking the big time starters and scoring early on them fairly consistently this year. Now yesterday's game was odd...Cashner seemed to have them confused...staring at pitches right in the zone that looked hittable to me.  Not sure what was up with that.

12

But when a pitcher is walking the world, say 14 of the last 18 pitches have been balls, the guy in a slump shouldn't be swinging at the first pitch.  The guy I'm talking about, Pops, is no longer slumping.  He did ground out weakly on that first pitch, while letting the pressure off a pitcher who could hardly get one over the plate.

2 strike aggression needed to go up specifically and I think it has the last few games.  OverallI can't complain too much about the hitting, it's happening.  The run scoring side has been great thus far.  The rotation is with the trainers but the bullpen is beginning to gel.  We get to see some of the depth and Bergman looked good.   Overton had some of it going at least, though he's not stretched out yet.  De Jong looked pretty good the other day, far better than I'd seen. 

14

Because of the 90 MPH wonders Overton is the guy I like.  None of their curves have shown much usefulness but Overton has a changeup that can be an out pitch.  At least at times.  What out pitch do the others have?

Overton has hit 92, DeJong 91 and Bergman 89 from what I've seen.  I've seen each have a good outcome start this year, without counting spring.  The 30th wasn't a start for Overton but 5 innings in the blowout, limiting damage at the end.  That was DeJongs previous start which was the worst among any by the 3.   Overton had his best game I've seen in spring though.  To me, if Overton can get more break on his curve he's got plenty of potential to dominate at times and keep the team in it most of the rest of the time.

Looks like we'll get to see each another time or 3 to get a better idea though.   I'll be watching. 

16

Before, After.  Notice the simplified tool box, the increased spin rate on EVERYTHING, and the newfound tightness of angle on his Fastball, Cutter, Change-up combo.  The Fastball is rising more rise and break than before and the change up has more distinction of flight from that pitch even while the spin makes them look more similar than before.

17

As offered below also.  They seem to be going with their "tunnel" philosophy here as with many pitchers, including Gallardo.  Not sure Dipoto thinks much of the slider or the change curve generally - as I don't.

They could be onto a Moneyball concept here.  To go looking for pitchers who are capable of pitching within their up-and-down, deep-and-shallow concepts as opposed to hitting hair-fine spots inside and out.

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Dipoto also has the OF's to back up the usage of high strikes.  

18

Rather than wanting his pitchers to looks for the ugliest swinging strikes with down-away sliders that have become less common in the post-money ball era, he seems to be having his pitchers throw them at the top of and above the zone, harder with weaker break, it seems like they start walking a line between cutters and fastballs.  But yeah, definitely the pitch tunnels, Nick Vincent, Gallardo, Scribner, Bergman, it does seem like the string that ties them together.

Bergman's pitching (for the day, anyway) makes him a surprisingly good comp for Jeremy Hellickson.  I definitely think he's won first shot honors for the next start between he and Overton.

19

Right now Bergman over the others?

I'm saying long run Overton over the others.  Which makes me prefer that Overton gets the ball to learn in the show which is most of what he needs.  I'm saying by a year from now if he's improved his curve we're all loving him.   If...

Of course once Moore is up, and the top 3 are back it's mostly moot for now.

No voters for DeJong?

20

But if it's something you feel strongly about :: hobson, Arthur :: I could go watch the vid ;- )

23

Over on LL, there is a neat article about Bergman.  According to LL, he's in the 80th percentile of pitchers in terms of horizontal movement on his FB.  What he lacks in gas, he makes up for in armside movement.

25

If his fastball is short, and his main offspeed is a change ... but I've got armside run that ranks me #30 among 150 starters and that's the key?  Not trying to quibble; it's an honest question.  Texasleaguers gives 9" as the armside swerve; we've seen 12, 13" from other guys.

But along with the run and cut (2x movements) he does seem to have a nice "tunnel change" according to the charts.  And the excellent LL .gif had him throwing up-and-down the zone with alacrity.

Those are two Dipoto Grand Themes, so ...

27

Although this is a little like saying a guy had an extra -1 MPH on his changeup.  Iwakuma is the same place on that list, pretty much, and do you assign armside run as a key factor in his pitching?  You also have the fact that 2015-17 has been the period in which Gallardo has had his problems.

But extra run means a little extra fingersnap and finish, so it's not a bad thing by any means.  Keep the stats coming bro' and I, for one, will keep sorting the sock colors according to my own Garpian world :- )

30

when the pitching started lights-out and the bats lights-off. You just couldn't imagine Cano-Cruz-Seager hitting a collective .225, much less a collective .150, for any real length of time.

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