As long as they don't get injured there are really good arms finally clicking all the time. After all kinds of trouble and ugly numbers Tyson Ross is on track now. Fantastic since being inserted in the SD rotation. In his 9 starts post all-star game look like a guy who would receive Cy Young votes. Ivan Nova is another who is taking a bit of a step forward it looks like. Mike Minor got knocked around a bit before really gelling.
Very interested in seeing if Maruer can be one of those guys. Did not know he could touch 99, have I been missing this all year? With 3 young kids I don't get to sit down for all the games like I used to. Better pop over to fangraphs and check the charts. Thanks Doc, interesting set of articles!
Edit: Found an interesting article poking around at Fangraphs detailing how Nova changed his pitch selection http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-evolution-of-ivan-nova/
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Q. What will Ron Shandler's Forecaster say next year?
A. That Maurer's BPV (Base Performance Value) were poor, based on gopheritis ... that the BPV improved decently in the 2nd half, which was mostly in relief ... that DOM (strikeouts) showed "seeds of something interesting" but that it could be a long way off.
Ron's system is based on trends across years. There isn't much to go on with Maurer; he deserved to get hit, and did get hit.
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Q. What did Mike Blowers and Jay Buhner say, on TV?
A. After the first two hitters, Mike was speaking charitably about Maurer being in the pen, that it maybe taught him how to trust his fastball, which Blowers sees as the key for Maurer. Repeated the theme many times on TV. "Fastball percentage is down to 40% now..."
Jay Buhner agreed, saying that with Maurer's fastball he needs to establish it, "get the batters cheating" and THEN come in with his offspeed stuff.
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Q. Does Dr. D agree with this?
A. That, or ANY coherent attack plan, would make all the difference. This Classic Pitching 101 strategy would be fine: make them start the bats on the 96 fastball, and then cross them up. It's like Chuck Knox running to set up the pass.
But what I don't get is why this kid is shaking off his catchers ten times an inning. Why is he even allowed to do that?
Tell you what, Jack. Send Maurer out there one game. NO shakeoffs. Have Zunino work fastball-curve, and throw the slider ONLY to spots. UP into the lefties' hands, and off the plate to righties, to sucker them. Bet you a crisp dollar bill he nails a quality start with 7 K's.
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Q. How long would Maurer need in AAA? Would it be to refine his command, or what?
A. Maurer's acceleration is jerky, but so was Kevin Appier's. Maurer's command is average-mediocre, but it should be good enough for his kind of stuff. What he NEEDS to do, is get less of the plate with his slider especially. Just no sense of danger with that slider.
No, in my opinion Maurer's delivery and command probably isn't a critical issue. Certainly his stuff is NO issue. It is pitchability, period.
Supposing he goes back to AAA and blows away hitters with the sheer quality of his stuff. How does that help him?
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Q. And how do you GET pitchability?
A. By listening to your catcher and coaches.
Dr's prognosis is this. Maurer could potentially, at any time, "get the hang of it" as far as SCARING hitters and then tantalizing them.
Whether that would happen at any given time, such as "soon," who knows. My own thought is that it's not a question of sticking the cake into an oven for (say) one year and then it's done. It's when Maurer gets a feel for sequences.
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Q. Do the M's have any better?
A. We led the series with two James re-prints... he cautions us not to just throw a 5.00 ERA out and start on the next project. In a vacuum :- ) you're better off seeing if you can build on a guy with 100 lousy IP in the show.
But James also qualified it. Do you have anybody better? What are your options? Seems these days there are a few names that come to mind.
:: shrug :: I guess the long relief / swing man role is the thing. Maurer's numbers did improve a fair bit in the 2nd half. Tell you one thing, Brandon Maurer has a howitzer attached to his right shoulder. It ain't like we're talking Jeff Gray on this one.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Isn't Zunino the boy wonder general who is supposed to lead the pitching staff to sub 4 ERA's? Wasn't Maurer diagnosed as a slider hanging head case earlier in the year? It seems like an inexperienced pitcher should not be given any deference on the pitches he prefers to throw, and here we have Maurer calling the shots. This should have been figured out. We have pride at stake. We just witnessed the Lastros sweep the M's at home.
If I'm the M's Field Manager, given Maurer's inability to organize winning pitch sequences, he is told to follow his catcher's direction - without exception. To me, last night's game by Maurer, given that he had electric stuff but got hammered due to poor pitch selection, was an indictment of the M's Field Leadership.
is Maurer thinks he's figured it out and it's decided he can pitch one his way but if it's like this his next start is Zunino's calls. Didn't say it was a great explanation or even likely. Otherwise I can't see why. Even if there's a change in that we probably wouldn't know if it was for this reason or entirely decided afterwards.
If Mauer is teachable. But before someone tries a new approach, he has to be willing to discard the old approach, which he apparently thinks is best. Getting hammered when you have good stuff seems like a good time to be amenable to try something new.
Maurer reminds you of the rookie Kevin Appier, but then again he also reminds you of the rookie Brett Tomko...
The *general principle* that Wedge and Willis go by, you gotta believe in your pitches, and every pitch you throw is your responsibility ...
In baseball, general principles get wayyyy too ossified, don't they? At what point has "consistency" become a "lazy, one-size-fits-all security blanket"?
He's been in the 'pen, and his arm is rested, and he was jacked up. Maurer can reach back for upper 90's, but he's comfortable at 93-96. Which puts him wayyyyy up the ladder, mate... Maurer has a drop-and-drive, David Cone, Kevin Appier, Max Scherzer -level power arm.
If you check the Brooks chart there's an amusing dropoff to his velocity, inning 1, inning 2, inning 3, and then they wisely got him out of there. One more nervous chip onto the Brett Tomko scale.
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Very cool link on Nova bro'. Might hafta POTD that out...
Glad you enjoyed that Nova article. Right after I read your series on Maurer and went to fangraphs to check his velo chart I decided to look at the Nova chart as well. Happened to click on the Nova article and it was a perfect follow-on to what you had just written about Maurer. All Nova did was change his pitch mix and scrapped an ineffective pitch with excellent results so far. Didn't have to refine his command for 2 years in AAA or develop a change up or something. Had all the tools for the job and was not using them properly.
Nice that Tyson Ross could implode tonight after I got all excited writing about his progress.....