PREGAME KEYS

In the 2H of 2014, Jay had happ-ened into a solution to his lifelong 4.0 walks problemo.  

His idea was as brilliant as it was original:  Throw Fastballs.  As Tom Glavine once put it, "there's a reason we don't start a batter with curve balls.  Because we don't want to start the count 1-0."  This from TOM GLAVINE.  Yes, grasshopper, even those dudes on TV spin a curve and hope for the best.

On the 4.0 walks ratio ... it's not so much that the extra walk or two kills you.  (It does.)  It's more so much that a 4.0 BB pitcher is throwing worse pitches on 1-1 than a Billy Beane pitchers does.

So, Dr. D settled into his couch, grabbed a staticky comb to fluff his hair and peered in to guage Happ's ability to throw a quality 1-1 pitch.

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IN-GAME SCRIPT

John Madden once complained that everybody else wrote a pregame script (let's say, "Gronkowski vs Chancellor" and then commented the whole game to fit the pregame.  As y'know, we won't do yer that way at SSI.

Happ looked nothing at all like his stats, 2H 2014 or otherwise.  From first pitch to last, he was a Billy Beane pitcher (Jesse Chavez, Tommy Milone).  Krueger glowed warmly about Happ's polish, compactness, and pitchability.  It was like dealing for Jimmy Graham and then watching him road-grade Leo ends while catching 1 ball for 8 yards.

Happ didn't throw 70% fastballs.

He didn't throw 60% fastballs, either.

He didn't throw 50% fastballs, either.

As y'know, Brooks Baseball lives to serve.  Here's an easy-scan visual delivery of the facts.

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SO, DO WE THROW OUT THE SCRIPT?

Nah.  Happ was working on his offspeed stuff.

Was his fastball back to pre-2014 levels?  Not really.  Happ:

• Averaged 92 MPH, touching 94 MPH, which is quick.  and,
• He was not amp'ed up.  and,
• He's not stretched out.  and,
• The batters were late on his fastball.  So much that they did a postgame on it

You might have watched and said, "That ain't 94."  But that would be a poor assessment.  Happ was a stinger-quick lefty, as Elias is, and Happ was in no way reaching back for his best heat.

Possible that he'll lose back the two feet on his fastball.  It did not look to me like he will.  In any case, the scouts had big grins on their faces after Friday's outing.  :: Transporter 2 villain ::  Trust me on this one, amigo  

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WHENCE ALL THE POLISH AND COMMAND?

He threw 30 strikes and 13 balls, sitting in an Iwakuma-class rocking chair.  And it looked every blinkin' inch of it.  See the remarks from John Madden, above.

How to make sense of this performance?  Let's tick the theories off on our fingers:

Happy-Happy Joy-Joy factorRoot CauseHeliumHapp has simply figured it out late (Jeff Fassero)HIHapp was the 2H 2014 guy (Derek Holland) just over-relaxed in STMID2H 2014 was a transition stage.  Now he'll be a John Danks type (smooth 100-105 ERA+)LOHe's the same old 94 ERA+ Happ

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Dr's R/X

Happ threw the same three pitches* that Roenis Elias does, maybe with a tick less buzzzz but with a boatload more mastery.  I can't think of a single reason to push Elias in front of Happ right now.

Now, pushing Elias AND Happ in front of TAIJAN, that's another conversation ...

Enjoy,

Dr D