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That's Andruw Jones territory...if he did that all year, it would make him one of the two or three greatest defensive outfielders in the history of the game. Just saying.
Arenaball M's 11-10, Phillies 9-6 ... Sizzlers
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HANAGAMEREDIA DYSMOT
Does not sound at first glance like a syndrome you would want to contract, does it? Well, maybe the Astros will catch a good case of it, next time around.
This is where you step out of a fresh shower ... pour a steaming cup of strong coffee ... toggle on your computer ... and settle in to enjoy 1,200 words of sthick that tell you the M's are hitting good. Whether you are Russell Wilson or an SSI Denizen, it's all about routine.
Dr. D's own routine is searching for stats tables like this one:
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To put that in a bit of perspective ... ML averages are 30% for fish rates and 10.5% on whuff rates. (All were pulling the trigger about 62% of the time on strikes.) For perspective, your young star Kyle Seager settled in last year at a near-ideal 27%, 62%, with that 7% whuff rate.
If you were to scale all these young pups' swing and sniff rates over to a .300 batting average, like wOBA does for RC/27, the kids would be at what, .400 to .450 each. A regular clump of Wade Bogges, in terms of how tough it is to get a strike on one of 'em. Good thing for the Angels these guys are at the bottom of the lineup and don't get 5 ABs.
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BEN GAMEL hit his first seven or shots on one hop into the RF corner, like "splat" aces in racquetball. Dr. D tut-tutted. Gamel (Bamel?) rolled his eyes and hit his next seven shots on the same 13-degree trajectories, except to CF and then LF. Long ago we moved past Brett Gardner Lite and now will settle for nothing less than Johnny Damon Heavy.
Not a bad stock score in 50 at-bats' worth of time. ;- ) But Gamel, Haniger and Vogelbach were our 21st-century attempt at Smoak, Ackley and Montero and there woulda been no harm in watching Justin Smoak ascend Safeco and ask, "What, is this all? I thought they'd be taller."
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GUILLERMO HEREDIA has been anointed by Jedi as THE quickest OF in baseball. John Dewan has him for 11 runs (not bases) saved in one fifth of one season. At that rate he could literally hit like Rich Hill or Jarrod Dyson and be an All-Star.
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TAYLOR MOTTER / BRIAN DOZIER LITE we realize some'a you guys want him to crisp in the sun of 550 ABs. Dr. D is just fine stealthing him in there for 350 AB's worth of fastball stalking. Lemme refer back to that first chart...
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MITCH HANIGER, as well as K-PAX and THE KING, are gingerly pencilled into appear in the next homestand. That is, after four measly more games of Arenaball out in Toronto. Return home WITH your .500 shields, or ON them, soldiers.
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THE BULLPEN seemed to step into a phone booth. One day you're cringing with a 5-0 lead; the next day you're wringing your hands desperately for a 3-3 game in the sixth. At least till Steve Cishek gets back.
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ROBINSON CANO's leg turned out to be no big deal, which was a bitter disappointment for us Motter fans. He consoled us with 8 bases on the day and is hitting .296/.362/.537 and is on pace for 38 homers from second base.
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Since the first week (April 9) Nelson Cruz is .391/.463/.685. A Lou Gehrig line. That is, if by "Lou Gehrig line" you mean his 1934, his best season.
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Danny Valencia was batting .333/.395/.590 in his last 11 games before his homer Wednesday. A moment of silence for Jerry Dipoto's smile that "Danny was our #1 target this winter," a claim often scoffed at but never imitated. Imagine if he has returned to his .475 SLG incarnation. The dude an AFTERthought, y'feelme?
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Yovani Gallardo, mometarily our #1 starter, won his game Wednesday. You could quibble about his 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 K against a bad team but that would miss the point. Gallardo is throwing with some mound presence now. We still owe you that un-pack of Jedi's comments but ... for now he looks like he'll chew some 100 ERA+ innings at a decent clip. The M's are working some serious magic with these guys.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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But if somebody is going to get over-the-top on Heredia's defense, I'd just as soon have Jerry Dipoto be the source...
I always wondered what the difference was, between "athletic" in the outfield and "fast" in the outfield. Guess we needed Heredia vs Dyson to tell the difference.
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...if Heredia is really going to be a +25 or better run defensive corner outfielder (thus, presumably a +15 or better defensive CF) that solves soooooo many franchise-specific problems.
You talk about moneyball wins here...what'd we pay for Heredia as an IFA, 700k? LOL We got Segura (the other hilariously good, still-club-controlled, young position player at a skill position who hits like Ty Cobb) and the Maniger for a #3 SP and a never-was mediocre SS. That may be one of the most lopsided trades of this decade. And then add on Gamel for ... who'd we give up? The fact that I can't remember is pretty hilarious.
Hokay...perhaps we can now abandon the idea that Dipoto doesn't know how to trade for talent...:)
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The 3.5 ARM mark for the team has them firmly in 3rd behind the Twins and Phillies and ahead of the Reds. The team OF UZR/150 of 11.5 trails only the Phillies 12.8. The 6.6 overall UZR is top in the game, in 55 more innings tallied than the Phillies. 15 DRS with the Yankees at 12 Rays at 11 and everyone else 7 or less from their OF.
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7 WAR OF is tied for 4th.
Edit: #1 OF Yankees at 9.3 WAR is actually fairly similar. 2 Aarons out of nowhere (Hicks and Judge) plus the actual Bret Gardner starting out hot.
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Who is also playing well at the moment.
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Ellsbury is at 1.0 even, that's higher than any of ours except Haniger. We instead had Martin putting up -0.3. And he's their lowest among players who have run out to the OF for defense.
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...then as soon as Haniger is back, you slam Heredia over to CF, Gamel to left and Haniger into right...and all three of them are still ++ defenders...and all three of them are + or ++ hitters.
This IS still the Mariners, right? Since when do they magic into existence an entire starting outfield of young, club-controlled super-talents that make all-star teams together? Seriously...there were a lot of folks here who were wringing their hands about the untested, punch-and-judy-hitting outfield because...well...that's how they hit before touching the cage with Gar.
WUT????
How the heck did they pull that off?
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...in this scenario, Dyson and Motter off the bench is not too shabby.
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Is there another outfield besides the bally-hooed Boston Group of Benetendi - Bradley - Betts that is as young and as good as Gamel - Heredia - Haniger? Boston gets more press, but the M's group, when Haniger gets back, has gotta open eyes. Maybe the M's aren't so old and out-talented as some seem to think.
Amazing to think that Haniger was attracting ROY attention and then, while he's been down, Gamel has matched that performance.Talk about stepping up and grabbing your opportunities!
Then look at Segura and Cano - one a HOF candidate and the other just 27! Sign the kid to an extension that'll keep them together!
I'm starting to think that another SP may not be needed. Get Moore some starts in Tacoma, then by July if Kuma needs to be moved to the pen, you've got a decent #4-5 behind Paxton - Felix - Smyly. And if Gallardo keeps sucking up the innings and/or Miranda continues to learn the lessons he needs to, there's depth. I'm really getting encouraged..
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dup.
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Had me celebrating like Harry when Lloyd walked out in his orange tux!
There's definitely been some incredible success since Martin got his walking papers. I don't mind Motter off the bench at all- when Haniger comes back. To get Dyson in the game, though, does present a problem for me. Fortunately not to the Leonys Martin level of dissatisfaction.
Great to see the teams performance since they dropkicked the succubus to AAA.
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When talking about Mariner breakouts and busts, we've talked about those who are more likely to be receptive to instruction and those who are less likely to be receptive to instruction. The z-axis on this 3-D scatter plot are those who are CAPABLE of taking instruction.
Refresher:
Wade LeBlanc - Shipped out because he wasn't toe-ing the line and encouraged others to raise their noses with him.
Taijuan Walker - When he *finally* started to listen to coaches, he had trouble executing the plan. Zzzzip - gone.
Zunino - Soaking in everything like a puppy-dog-shaped sponge -> Unable to implement changes successfully
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Maniger -> Identified weakness and ID'd plan to fix it -> implemented plan
Motter - Consistent stalking of specific pitch and WHALING away at it
Gamel - Whatever they saw in him, Ben has lived up to it.
So, the theory goes, DiPoto's front office likes to ID guys with talent, who are willing to take instruction, and who are capable of implementing a plan that puts them in a position to succeed.
On May 2nd, the Mariners made a little-heralded move, trading PTBNL (probably related to super-scrub Cash) to the team with the least amount of trades in the past two years - the Cincinnati Reds for 26 year old Seth Mejias-Brean.
Seth is a 3B/1B, was a middling prospect, and his star has been consistently falling for the past three years. He demolished the low minors but never saw his game power translate into the bigs.
Here's a good write-up on him at the time of the trade from the Reds' perspective.
So, what's he done in the past 7 games that he deserves attention? .370/.452/.519 with a 3/4 K/BB ratio. In his career he's hit for average, he's gotten on-base, and he's hit for power - just never all three at the same time. He's a righty with a knack for hitting to the opposite field. He's running out of time to carve himself a major-league career and he just got a fresh start with a new organization that has shown it can put forward a plan to make the most out of an individual's given skillset if that individual wants to put forward the effort.
Welp, if he were a later-career renaissance, this is what it might look like. At first-base, no less. As Doc would say, eyes slideways.
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I've been noticing Mejias-Brean's hot start too, after Gamel and Heredia turning star, I'm starting to have some faith in the organization's ability to pull a reverse Ackley. I feel like they're trying to fill up on potential GG First Basemen / Former 3rd Basemen for the post Valencia era.
And they've added another journeyman starter, welcome 29-year-old Casey Lawrence to the fold.
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Cano (OPS 1.235 last 14 days), Valencia (.980), Cruz (1.007), Segura (.908), Motter (.653...but 1.017 the last 7 days), Seager (.774), Heredia (.775, but BA/OBP of .318/.412) and Gamel (1.151) all are in blistering/torrid/smoking hot streaks (take your pick) right now. Well, except for Seager's pedestrian .774 (which is basically exactly the level he played at in '13, '14 and '15, so it isn't that pedestrian). And then some dude named Haniger suits up again pretty soon.
Clearly, some of those guys are going to see a drop off, maybe all of them, but likely not at the same time. Have we found our way into a relatively "slump-proof" offense?
If our singular black hole in the lineup will soon be at only catcher, then how do you stop this offense over a 4 game series?
Have we become The Big Teal Machine?
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A lot of prior Mariners offenses have only been able to beat you one way. In 2013 and 2016 it was primarily the longball. In 2014, there was a bit of pop but it was mostly competent smallball. In 2007 it was high CT%. This offense can kill you five different ways. No matter how you pitch this team, there are a few guys who hit that style. Power pitcher that uses the top of the zone? Meet Nelson Cruz, Taylor Motter, Mitch Haniger, and Jean Segura...all of whom hit high pitches well. Nibbler that likes to keep the ball on the ground and work the outside corner? Meet Segura, Gamel, Heredia and Cano. Aggressive in the zone? Valencia, Segura, Haniger, Cano, Seager, Heredia...all reactive hitters who like to hunt fastballs. Trying to get them to expand the zone, most of this club is disciplined and will kill your pitch count. Have trouble holding baserunners like Lester does? Have fun stopping Segura, Motter, Haniger, Dyson, Gamel and Heredia from running wild on you.
Point being...this club cannot be approached by any one broad strategy. You have to executive multiple gameplans perfectly, or they'll beat you.
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And a very important point. I wonder how much was by design.
Probably nearly all of it?
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They hit for average, control the zone, they're athletic and have speed, they don't give away at-bats, they're coachable, flexible, can handle multiple positions (except Seager, Cano, Cruz, catchers), balanced...those are all things he stressed were goals. The under-the-surface jabber said he was interested in trajectories and finding coachable flaws...that's what he seems to be doing...