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Kenneth Arthur, who is great with a capital G, goes slightly Dr D-psycho in this preview, pronouncing certainties like "Kyle Seager will pull the ball with authority," "Tim Lincecum should be drafted 1-1," and
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If I think there is a 95% chance that the Vikings get the six seed, and a 100% chance they don’t win two playoff games, I’m not going to waste my time on a .01% chance of a game happening. That is all.
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It's a novel thing to see Arthur's readers argue the points; this happens much less often at Field Gulls than it happens at Seattle Sports Insider. :- ) ... for example, one commenter points out gingerly "For what it's worth, Football Outsiders gives the Vikings a 43% chance of winning their division, not 0.01%." Anyway, the thread is a fun read, as always. And don't think Dr. D hasn't noticed that many of you all (such as Silentpadna and Grizzly) post more there than you do here. :: kung fu panda i've got my eye on you gesture ::
Dr's prognosis -- especially in football, we're counting on all-y'all to fix these --
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THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS feel like a "comfortable" road opponent now. Supposing they take their 43% chance of winning their division ... Green Bay beats us out in the Wild Card and as the #6 seed, we go to Minny and have only to play our game to advance. This is the New York way to spectate the playoffs: if the Seahawks play an excellent game, are the Vikings dangerous enough to beat them anyway? Probably we all agree "Not." Forget the Seahawks' crush; the Vikings have struggled all season against strong opposition.
Ax-terix: if Minny wins the NFC Central* then of course Green Bay "will have lost" the Vikings game, even at Lambeau. Their only other remaining game is IN Arizona. Let's give them a loss in that one ... if the Seahawks go 2-0 from here, they actually finish 11-5 to Green Bay's 10-6. Would you have thunk it, when the Hawks were 2-4, and Green Bay was 6-0? That would be a gain of +5 games in only ten played.
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THE EAGLES or whoever from the NFC East also have no military defense, practical or theoretical, if the Seahawks if the Hawks play approximately as they are capable. So what's new is: whoever wins the NFC Central, the Hawks "control their destiny" into the NFC Final Four.
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Also, the Seahawks could host the NFC Championship game if Minnesota is a Wild Card, and if Minnesota then beats GB on the road followed by beating Arizona/Carolina on the road. That's not an 0.01% chance; it's more like a 10-15% chance, 1/3 times 1/3. Anyway, we know the Vikings will be our 2nd-fave team in the postseason.
5 has never hosted 6 in the NFCCG! the fans bleat. Well, that's merely because there have BEEN very few 6's so far and there have been few times that the #5 team was the best team in the league.
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THE PANTHERS "feel" uncomfortable because they came back to win in Seattle, and because Cam Newton can beat you HOWEVER well you play. Seattle in Carolina, it says here, would be a 50-50, 60-40 game that was played at Super Bowl quality.
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Some other article, mayhaps on Field Gulls, pointed out a saber-stat that had 3 Seahawk wide receivers as (1) among the top 10 NFL wideouts in possession stats (like % of targets completed) and also (2) among the top wideouts as deep threats (like with their yards-per-catch and broken tackle stats). Amazing how good your receivers get when your QB leaps a plateau. The Hawk WR's are fine, but let's not confuse them with Julio Jones.
Russell Wilson, however, you are welcome to confuse with Joe Montana or Drew Brees.
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THE CARDINALS ALSO can beat the Seahawks even on a good day for the Seahawks, as used to be true of the 49er's when they had eight All-Pros on defense. But their fans, if in possession of their faculties, feel that way even more than we do. The Cards just played the Vikings *in Arizona* and needed a hectic 4th-quarter comeback to nip them by three. Dr. D, an NFL amateur, has heard that (1) common games matter, and (2) the Vikings had rather more trouble with the Seahawks than they did with Arizona.
Strangely, the Seahawks might need to win 31-24 rather than 17-7, but the local squad is evolving. It can do that these days.
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No ONE team is a favorite to win the NFC. However, if I lived in a neutral site (say, Las Vegas), I'd have it a tossup which of the Big Three was going top of the heap in the NFC. As fate would happen, that's just where Vegas sees it too.
Seahawks for choice though,
Dr D
