Ms Draft, Day 3
Unearthing the future, one stone at a time

The Ms did something different for them: rather than slagging their top 10 picks in order to afford just a couple of expensive bats (DJ and Wilson one year, Jackson and Morgan another) they took pitchers on Day One who should fit the slot if not come in a little lower, and then took a couple of teen arms on Day Two to give us several options at improving our pitching depth and talent level.  Seemed nice, especially since most of our better arms are hurt or underperforming. Maybe the non-hitting gloves can come a little cheaper than slot too and give us a little money for Day 3.  I wonder who we might wanna give it to...?

I won't lie: there might be more talent taken by us from 11-20 than there was from 1-10, and I liked our 1-10 talent decently well to start with.  That's a great thing - as long as we can sign most of it.  For instance, it starts out a little slow:

11: Dylan Silva, Junior LHP (bullpen). Strikes out half the world, walks the rest. If he can be harnessed (especially if he can control his nasty slider), he can be great - and he was absolutely great to end the season after a terrible start (though walks were still high). Fastball is about 91-92, which is fine for a lefty - and he doesn't exactly throw that into a teacup either. Control is key. You must learn control...

12: Logan Taylor, Junior RH 3B. He's got power, doesn't walk much, hits pretty well. He's played some middle infield, so his glove isn't terrible. Gives me a Steve Proscia vibe offensively, and he too had trouble once he couldn't hit .330 anymore. Might go back for his senior season, though. The benefit to Taylor is he should be able to glove it at 2B and maybe even SS, while Proscia was strictly a 3B/1B type. Proscia at 2B could absolutely be a big-leaguer, so that makes Taylor interesting.

13: Matt Clancy, Junior LHP (bullpen). Dylan Silva 2.0, complete with Ks and control issues as a lefty reliever, except he's a couple inches shorter and under 6 feet (our specialty). Reliever only, and again, this is what we do.

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And then the haymakers start...

14: Jio Orosco, prep RHP. Shorter? Yes! Good motion? Actually, yes. Can rush it up at 94, has nice shape to his breaking stuff and seems light on his feet for a guy who's built pretty thick (not fat, just built a little stout). He's no Sanchez (RIP) but he has a chest. I like his smoothness, especially for someone so young (he's not quite 18, which is also great). He likes his fastball best, but throws a curve and change too with a lot of promise. One of the state of Arizona's best arms, if not THE best. Also a decent hitter, but that doesn't really matter to us in the AL - just speaks to his athleticism. He's pretty seriously committed to Arizona, it seems.  

Controlling his breaking stuff is always an issue, but he's a teen. If we splurge on somebody I expect it to be Orosco (stated at the time of his drafting). Right now it seems like he'll command the most money of these Day 3 guys so far.  Still might not be able to buy him out of his college commit though.  BA ranked him at #181, or 5th-6th round material and was about the same on Fangraphs (our 4th rounder, Dylan Thompson, didn't make the BA top 500, but was a 3rd-to-4th rounder by Fangraph's estimation).  5th round money would be around 300-350k.

15: Ryne Inman, prep RHP. A 6'5 pitcher? Whaaaa? Another prep arm, he's 88-91 with the heat, mid 70's curve and an embryonic change. He pulls off to 1B a little when he throws, but the motion for a tall teen is pretty buildable and has that whole projectable velocity thing going on for when he fills out his frame. Unlike Orosco, who is probably gonna take a chunk of change to buy out from AZ, Inman is going to Georgia State. Might make him more gettable.

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Then back to some jabs...

16: Ricky Eusebio, RH Junior CF. Ricky's an oddity for the Ms. Doubles-power, but walks significantly more than he Ks (51:37). He doesn't get the best jumps on the basepaths (THERE's his Mariners trait) but he is fast and will stay in CF. He plays in the ACC, which is not a chump conference either. Probly not a starting OF in the bigs, but walks and D are both good things - and we don't usually go for both in the same package.

17: Joe Pistorese, Senior LHP. Uhh... we owe him a favor. maybe? Low ERA, doesn't strike anyone out (5.1 Career) but walks half that (and did even better his senior year). Was a starter in college but certainly seems like a pen conversion in the making. There are worse things - think of it like a stab at Tyler Olson again. Local boy makes good.

18: Anthony Misiewicz, Junior LHP (bullpen). Around 6 feet tall, fastball can reach low 90s, throws a bender around 74 as well as a change. Apparently we're re-stocking our lefty reliever pile.

19: P.J. Jones, Senior C.  Another local state guy (Washington St.), and somebody's gotta catch all these arms we're drafting and give the teens some useful tips.  He can't hit, so I assume he's a wonderful defensive catcher who can coach up those kids while they're on the mound.

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And here's the uppercut:

20: Parker McFadden, prep RHP from our own WA backyard. This guys is NOT a favor, since he can hit 97 and was projected to go in the first 4 rounds. He's BA's #81 prospect. He's only 6 feet tall, so those same susperstitions against shorter hurlers come up. He's signed to go to Wazzu, but if signing with his hometown Mariners is important to him, I hope we find the money to make that happen. Seriously, there are people who like him better than EITHER of our first two picks.  If Neidert is a shorter Chris Archer skinny flamethrower, then McFadden is a solid, strong-legged athlete (pulled his hamstring tying the school record in the 40 yard dash) and velocity is not an issue.  He's CONSISTENTLY 93-95, can throw a breaking ball and is working on a changeup.  He's one of those Sonny Gray types you REALLY want to be on your team. It would be a huge get -and not an easy one.

Now, he got contacted at the start of Day Three and turned down the bonuses offered if he were to sign there.  McNamara himself doesn't exactly sound like he thinks we have it in the bag when he says, "We wanted to draft him and see where it goes. We’re glad we drafted (him)." We at least have the right to talk to him about what it would take now, and we're gonna have to find him a lot of money, or a kinda-lotta money if he gives us some sort of hometown discount of a couple hundred K. The Mariners have a pool of $4,186,900, and can go 5% over that without penalty. We once paid $800k for Jordan Shipers. McFadden is a WAY better prospect than Shipers was. Shake the couch cushions, Ms. Our 3 senior draftpicks in the first 10 rounds should net us about 450k to play with once we low-ball those guys (sorry seniors) and who knows how many others will be under-slot (though obviously what Neidert signs for is the big question). Dunno how many of the teens we've drafted 10-20 we can actually sign, but the impressiveness of the draft changes significantly if we can get Orozco and especially McFadden to ink.  I would hope we throw in a full ride to wherever (since we can legally do that according to the rules) in addition to whatever we pay him in cash.

So let me lay this out for you: basically, if we somehow signed all the prep arms in this draft so far and included Moore in the calculation, we'd have at LEAST 5 new arms in our top 10 starters - and probably in our top 7.  Yes, we're thin right now thanks to injury, tragedy and promotion, but there are some GOOD arms in this draft for us.

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And we're not done.

Let's say Parker and Jio turn us down.  Okay - let's draft more prep arms to give their money to!

25: Joe Peeler, prep RHP. Joe Peeler's twitter account was one of the highlights of my day.  Watching it just blow UP with congratulations for him, and then he posted this:  "Truly blessed to say I have been drafted by the Mariners to play professional baseball. Dream come true!"  He's built a lot more like Diaz at 6'4 and lanky, and has nice control skills actually, especially for a raw arm that needs a bit of coaching up (he's a little "Oh Gawrsh" Goofy-style on the mound). He seems absolutely stoked to be drafted, so I have to assume he's considering signing rather that going to college. Thrilled for him.

26: Ljay Newsome, prep RHP. 2015 Maryland player of the year, throws 87-92 with a smooth motion (he's real pretty) and nice arm action, destroyed all his competition culminating with 17 Ks in the State championship to win it 1-0. Short at 6 even (of course), but one of these days at least ONE short starter has to work out for us, right?  With how we've spent our capital in this draft, we'd better pray so.  I actually expect Newsome to sign, since I don't think he even has a college commit yet.  School must not be for him. One of those "nice" teen arms that hasn't yet fully wow'ed scouts yet.  Let's see what a couple years in our system does for him.+

27: Michael Rivera, prep RHP from Puerto Rico.  Turns 19 later this year but green as pistachio ice cream so his age doesn't matter as much. If he's looking at what we did for Edwin Diaz then he should sign with us. Not built like Diaz, though - Rivera's gonna be a truck at 6'3 225, and he hits 93 already (more like Gohara, and same age too). Just doesn't know quite where his pitches are going. We can help with that...

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There were some teens from 30-40 that I don't expect to sign, some relievers, a couple older college power hitters... for a restock draft especially on arms it should be fine.  

Most of the restocked starters seem like they'll be pretty young though.  I don't mind that - we have Taijuan, Paxton, Elias and Montgomery all under club control for half a decade yet.  Diaz is figuring it out in AA, and Moore should be in AA next year for us, while Littell is going to go to the Cal League and try to work on his secondary pitches in the desert (his fastball's fine and he's killing people with it in the MWL this year).  Hultzen's shoulder fatigue isn't thrilling me for his future prospects, but we aren't hurting for immediate help.  We ARE hurting for pitching depth and if we can get most of these guys onto the Farm that should abate the issue at the lower levels.

Usually restock drafts aren't sexy.  This one could be VERY sexy depending on the final arms tally.  Watch those signing notices closely - some very significant chunks of our future could be on them shortly.

And thanks for hangin' around for this year's draft with me!

Comments

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- Nick Neidert is heading for Seattle right now, apparently, for the press conference.  Terms not yet disclosed.

- Andrew Moore is taking his $800k. Our new "substantial reach" with "no plus pitches" who can't be "more than a fifth starter" (all quotes from Chris Crawford at Baseball Prospectus) will get a chance very shortly to prove whether he can destroy wood-bat hitters in the pros the way he obliterated college bats.

- Jio Orozco, 14th round pick with early-round talent, has said he's skipping college to sign with us and is "happy enough with what he got."  Dunno what amount that is yet, but it's a good get.

- Joseph Peeler is "95 percent" that he's signing with the Ms instead of going to college.

- Joe Pistorese is signing (Senior guy, so they almost always do).  According to Tom McNamara he "pitched a complete game shutout right in front of my face," so we took him.  Sounds fine to me.  Joe is in our wheelhouse.

Looks like we're landing many of these arms we drafted, which is GOOD.  We need them, even if most of them won't be in line to see the bigs for half a decade.

On the negative side:

- Parker McFadden told MLB.com that he "thinks" he'll probably honor his commit to WSU, as I would expect - it's said he wants 3rd round money to sign.  We're basically gonna round up the rest of the top 10, throw every cent we can manage at Parker and see if he says yes.  If not, then we try to buy out one or two of the 30-rounder type picks from their college commitments I assume.  I just don't think we can get him, much as I'd LOVE to. C'mon Parker, take the $700k or whatever we have to throw at you and turn pro.  Pitchers can always get hurt, y'know...

 

 

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Jpax's picture

Thanks for all the information! I really enjoy draft coverage.

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Reports from Jim Callis are that the Ms signed Neidert for $1.2 million, which about 10% over slot.  With there being no savings from Neidert, we cannot afford to sign McFadden (as was first assumed would be the case - it was always a pipe dream).

We're signing pretty much all our other arms at this point though.

Signed draft picks I could find at this point (italics means I don't see they signed yet or can't confirm, regular text means they are signed but had no other real options, bold is somebody who had other options and is ours anyway): 

3) Braden Bishop, 6'1, 190, Junior RH CF.  

4) Dylan Thompson, 6'2, 180, prep RHP. Signed and in Seattle right now inking the deal.
 
5) Drew Jackson, 6'2, 200, RH Junior SS.  

6) Kyle Wilcox, 6'3, 195, Junior RHP. Already lists "RHP in Mariners organization" on his twitter account. He's ours.

7) Ryan Uhl, 6'6, 230, Senior RH 1B.  Signed.

8) Cody Mobley, 6'3, 190, prep RHP.  Signed, overslot at $300k total.

9) Conner Hale, 6'2, 190. Senior RH 3B.  

10) Darin Gillies, 6'4, 220, Senior RHP. Signed as well it looks like.

11: Dylan Silva, Junior LHP (bullpen). No word.

12: Logan Taylor, Junior RH 3B. 

13: Matt Clancy, Junior LHP (bullpen). Will sign.

14: Jio Orosco, prep RHP. Stated he'll sign (big get for us).

15: Ryne Inman, prep RHP. Has already signed, also good for us.

16: Ricky Eusebio, RH Junior CF. 

17: Joe Pistorese, Senior LHP. Signed.

18: Anthony Misiewicz, Junior LHP (bullpen). 

19: P.J. Jones, Senior C.  Signed.

20: Parker McFadden, prep RHP. No, and stated he probably would not sign - so it's good we're signing everyone else.

After 25, confirmed signs only:

25: Joe Peeler, prep RHP. Signed, headed to AZ for rookie ball.

26: Ljay Newsome, prep RHP. Signed contract, heads to us on Monday. (also a really good get). 

29: Jared West, college LHP.  Signed, on his way to Everett.

30: Augustus Craig, college RF.  Hails from Pizzano's ala mater of Columbia, signed.

I'm impressed that we got what seems like every arm but McFadden to ink.  That's some good homework, fellas.  Now let's hope they bring it on the diamond, cuz we need it.

 

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Jpax's picture

Thanks G!  I am glad to see that we are going to get almost everyone signed.  I keep hoping that the fact that WSU is changing its Baseball coach may influence Parker???

In my mind, this is SO much better than putting all of our eggs in 1-2 baskets (so to speak) like we have the last two years.  So many more chances to really draw a real player from the deck.  The last two drafts, if the 2-3 big guns at the top don't pan out, we virtually lose the entire draft (I know there are a couple interesting prospects, like Mr. Olson), but still.

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Maryland Mags's picture

You will love Mr. Newsome. He's a bulldog & works quick on the mound. Looked like a man against boys in the state title game.

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