M's 1-0, A's 0-1

So in Game Two, we get an opportunity for Lineup Two. 

Unfortunately, the first week may be an entitlement week.  But after that, I'm hoping for absolutely as much mix-and-match platooning as possible.  The more PA's for the #10-14 hitters, the happier I'll be.

.

=== Dallas Braden ===

Most-comparable pitchers:  RRS on a bad day, Ted Lilly if Lilly threw a lot more fastballs, Livan Hernandez plus a foot or two.

Braden is a classic 36-year-old smoke-and-mirrors lefty, hanging on for one more season in the sun.  87 fastball, good deception on the curve and change.  Oh, did I read his age wrong?

Willing to throw any pitch at any time, works ahead in the count, hopes you won't guess the first pitch right.  

Punish him for his 2.7-BB insolence?   In the friendly Oakland park, Braden has yielded only 0.83 homers per 9 innings, despite being a mild fly ball pitcher.  Last year that was down into the 0.5's, so he saved the A's -30 runs over replacement.

Braden runs ERA's of 3.9 and xFIP's of 4.9, and SSI's wager is that this year the ERA will float on up to match the xFIP.

......................

Still, Braden pitches the Ray Miller game:  Throw Strikes, Change Speeds, Change Locations.  It's not like he's going to start running 7.00 ERA's now.  Watch the A's third baseman and first baseman catch three pop fouls tonight in the area where BKafflen's seats are at Safeco.

What is kind of interesting, is that Dallas Braden goes #2 in a rotation that also includes young hoss Brett Anderson, as well as Justin Duchscherer.

The batter-pitcher matchups will be chess games tonight.

.......................

Wild card:  Braden's infection left his plant foot permanently (?) numb.  This is his first ML game pitching with the numb foot.  It's theoretically possible that the A's will find Braden's disability* to be important.  We hope not.

In spring training, against mixed opposition of course, he ran a 5.91 ERA albeit with a 3:1 CTL.   Last Wednesday, he gave up 12 hits and 7 runs.

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=== M's vs Braden ===

Here are the 8 current M's batters who have faced Braden.  Total:  .413/.451/.522 (!) in 50 plate appearances.

Chone Figgins is 9-for-15 when you add in the two walks.

Sweeney's 3-for-4 and could take huge advantage of his experience, not having to face a 95 fastball.

Milton Bradley is listed as day-to-day, for some reason, so Eric Byrnes will presumably be in there.  Actually I'd love to see Tuiasosopo play; one mistake by Braden and the M's would be three runs to the good.  But Tui isn't a political fit for Day Two.

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=== Ian Snell ===

The matchups for him look great tonight.   He's yielded a .196 SLG (not average, slugging percentage) against tonight's A's.

...........

Everything looks ideal on paper.  So, figure a 12-1 A's victory.

Cheers,

Dr D


Comments

1

If you look not at the numbers but at the families...which is how I prefer to make projections, the Mariners are a groundball-happy team...Sweeney, Figgins, Ichiro, Lopez, Gutierrez, Kotchman...all groundball hitters.  Wilson too.  Braden is a moderate flyball pitcher, which means we should expect lots of elevated pitches that the groundball guys can hit on a line instead of pound into the ground.
My pick to click: Chone Figgins
My predicted final score: 8-3 Ms

2

The As are, with the exception of Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, an oddly flyball-oriented line-up.  Travis Buck and Kurt Suzuki are neutral to GB/FB relative to league averages, the rest of them are flyball hitters...even Pennington.
Snell is neutral to GB/FB but EXTREMELY HIGH LD%. Indicating he's easy to square up.
Flyball hitters don't fair well in huge parks like Oakland...especially early in the season...and the As aren't going to be able to out-walk Snell..he's been lighting up the K/BB ratio all spring...he's throwing strikes...they're just hittable ones. So the As will have to come out swinging. My gut call is...they score early on Snell but the damage is limited by the park and the bullpen slams the door on the As.
My pick to click...Kurt Suzuki

3

Did anyone just see that? The whole history of SSI being re-uploaded to the site...it was like a super-high-speed fast-forward through history...I got to see the 2009 season unfold (early excitement...mid-seaso frustration...late joy at the overall quality of the season...and then I got to see all the big moments in the 2009/2010 offseason...I just kept hitting refresh and reading the article titles...LOL

4
M-Pops's picture

Wow.  I remember opposing teams loading-up on lefties when going up against prime Moyer.  Perhaps the M's should try that next time against Braden.  Yikes.
I think a Bradley/Sweeney combo is in order next time.  Byrnes did not impress :(

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