(Full disclosure dept: This article contains a section that tilts at saber windmills. If such discussion tends to annoy you, please view our alternate ending.
This great sabermetric article argues that "pitch framing" is a skill worth +20 to -20 runs per season. Chris Gimenez was, over the one season considered, measured to be good at pitch framing, and Miguel Olivo to be poor.)
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Q. Two HR's today. Baker credits Olivo with leading the M's to the top of the division. General celebration all around. What was the December 2010 SSI crunch on Olivo?
A. Here y'go, amig-o. In four parts.
The gist: two thumbs way up ... a $10m catcher for $3m ... great handler of pitchers ... as a delta from Adam Moore, his value was virtually infinite: the 2011 M's went from "no chance to contend" to "some chance to contend."
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Q. Is he hitting over his head right now?
A. His OPS+ was 94 going into Sunday's game. Since he was traded out of Seattle at age 26, that is exactly what he has averaged.
The Miguel Olivo you have seen in the first ten weeks of the season, that is precisely the hitter he has been since that cringe-inducing 1H 2005.
We worried that Safeco might hurt Olivo, yes, but it has not. It has cost him the same thing it costs everybody else: his SLG has dropped from .440-.490 to .410.
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Q. Does SSI still believe that Olivo has a good CERA? Hasn't nuclear science disproven CERA?
A. Sabermetrics has not disproven CERA, no. Here is the state of the argument as I can best Bing it: Link 1 and Link 2. The argument went like this. Pay attention, because there is a quiz at the end. Seriously! See if you can get the question right.
Anyway, the evolution of the CERA argument:
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1 BP AUTHOR: See this study I made? There. Now we know that CERA does not exist, that it is not a statistically significant skill (, and that General Managers should not consider CERA in signing free agents).
2 BILL JAMES: Um, Keith, I created a simulated Johnny Botch and a simulated Mike Pizza, constructed to have a full run (1.00) difference in pitch-calling skill. Your methods incorrectly found that there was no difference between Botch and Pizza.
3 BP AUTHOR: Ummmmmm... OK, so you're right. But we still don't know how to measure the difference between them. And if we can't measure it, we have to behave as though it didn't exist.
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Q. He didn't really say that. C'mon.
A. What the BP guy said was, "even if catchers do have an effect on pitchers' abilities to prevent runs, it is undetectable and thus has no practical usage."
Here's the test question. What's wrong with what he just said?
Take your time.
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What's wrong with it is: a catcher's pitch-calling skill is undetectable by whom? By a sabe with a calculator? Or by Eric Wedge using on-field knowledge and wisdom?
BP's paradigm is that a General Manager should, and must, hold that (ex-catcher!) Wedge's on-field expertise is worthless.
In other words, if BP can't tell Zduriencik that Olivo is better than Gimenez, then neither can Wedge. Zduriencik, as a 21st-century GM, must weight sabermetrics at 100% and on-field expertise at 0%.
This is the realllllllllly offensive side of sabermetrics.
In the 1980's, scouts treated sabermetricians unfairly. In the 2010's, the fault is 98% on our side. We're the ones constantly drawing first blood against the scouts.
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Do I believe that Eric Wedge knows when Chris Gimenez is calling a worse game than Miguel Olivo? I think that if you've watched baseball for a long time and you can't tell that, then something's wrong.
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The wiki article states that NBP managers emphasize CERA in evaluating catchers. Maybe Taro or IceX or Dr. Naka can comment.
Short-term CERA is subject to wild fluctuations. But directing your catchers' attentions to it would certainly have some benefits. I mean, do pitchers watch their ERA's? Do pitchers feel personal attachment to the runs scored by the other team?
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Q. Leaving Miguel Olivo where? What does Dr. D believe about Olivo?
A. That:
Franklin Gutierrez was deified for the concept of 10-15 runs saved on D, with an average-fair bat. Miguel Olivo is probably that, squared.
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Q. How will he hold up in the 2H?
A. We should pencil him in for a .150 AVG, starting August 10 or so. In which case I'll still put him in the lineup.
That's OK: I'm fine with borrowing a few runs from August and September, to spend now. Olivo is keeping us alive while we wait for Ackley, and for Carp or Peguero or somebody to jell, and while we wait for a Beltran* deal. I'll borrow the money at PayDay loan rates. You bet.
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Alternatively, they could call up Josh Bard and split the games more. Naaahhhhhh.
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Q. Speaking of Ackley?
A. BP's premium section just said today that the Mariners are going to make completely sure that Ackley misses Super Two status.
With Boras as his agent, the Mariners are being Terminator-ruthless with his club-controls years. They're apparently going to exploit him before he exploits them.
In Boras' case, I'm fine with that.
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On the other hand, Ackley just sat a game in Tacoma, causing general panic and hysteria in the streets, so.... if he's up by the time you read this, save me a party favor.
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BABVA,
Dr D
I am highly amused going back and reading my annoyed reaction to the Olivo signing. I wanted Zaun or Martin. I was right about Martin...horribly wrong about Zaun...and wrong about how good Olivo would be at the Safe. I think I was influenced by that ugly stretch of games in 2005. :\
My take on CERA:
Catchers can (and do) make a difference in pitcher ERA for pitchers who can execute on a consistent basis. For pitchers that cannot execute on a consistent basis ... doesn't matter.
The super-generalization here is that if a catcher calls for FB inside low and gets FB high and away ... whatever results happen to be have very, very little to do with the catcher. But, this leads to the paradox ... the better your pitcher, the MORE the catcher matters. Except it is generally believed that good catchers tend to help young pitchers more than veterans. Well, that is handled by the shake off ... or in the case of one Erikkk, (I am done throwing gophers like Washburn used to get burned by under Johjima so I'll shake you off 20 times per batter if I have to in order to call my own f-in' game) Bedard ... several.
In the end ... most pitchers are average ... most catchers are average ... so most CERAs shouldn't show much. Finding the proper mesh of pitcher ability and catcher "callingness" likely keeps the reality buried ... at least until you run into the Johnson/Johjima screaming-banshee of delta.
No doubt at all that Olivo is a plus game caller. He had good results calling games in Coors!!!
Johjima lost the battle with the pitchers very early and just decided to call a bunch of fastballs like they wanted (he used to be a breaking ball fiend like Olivo). The pitchers got the results they wanted. That whole era brings back a bad taste in my mouth.
I can agree that there is some ability to calling games, but nobody seems to have a method of measuring it right now. Matt, didn't you make a stat for this awhile back?
Love to read you poking at the saber dogma. I love what sabermetrics have done for baseball, but the pompous among them need their ox's gored from time to time.
The movie, Gattaca. I think it should be required viewing for every saber head. There is a line in the movie that has stuck with me since I first watched it. The genetically flawed man who is scamming the genetically pure system asks a scientist. "What if a person exceeds expectations?" The scientist brushes his question aside saying. "If a person exceeds expectations it simply means the expectations were wrong."
The scientist is still trying to deny the human element but, unlike the sabermetric die hards, he is willing to admit his measurement might fall short. It's a great movie to examine the science vs. human spirit argument.
Yes!
Stephen Kahn, last seen pitching meaningful innings in 2006, is with High Desert and pitched two scoreless frames last night. Apparently he pitched one inning in AZ rookie ball in 2009 and disappeared again until returning with a couple of wobbly innings on June 9 of this year.
Kahn blew through the Cal League with a 1.95 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in early '06 before disappearing into the mist.
Mr. Olivo LOST us a ballgame single-handedly last night. If he can actually catch a perfect throw from Figgins and apply the tag...that inning ends without runs scoring, the Mariners use Pauley and League and probably win 3-2.
She expects Kennedy to continue to play, including time at 3b. So another organizational "shot across the bow" to Figgins (though her wording indicates that they've communicated to her that it is still "a matter of some delicacy"). I don't doubt that Kennedy even taking ground balls at third impacts clubhouse politics. Also intresting that she indicates that Cust has already been told that he's being thrown under the bus, but that Figgins is being "handled" differently. I'm struggling with the formating, but the following is all quoted from her:
When Ackley comes up I would expect Wedge to not play him every day, but play him something closer to five out of seven games. Wedge believes that rookies benefit from extra days off and also that they need to be protected at times. On those days off Kennedy can play second. I would also expect Ackley to get time at DH, days he doesn't have to worry about fielding. Again, Kennedy can play second on those days.
And the rest of the days when Ackley is at second? Well, Kennedy has been taking a lot of early work at third base lately and I am told that the option of getting at least some playing time there is being looked at.
Conversations about the need to play the younger players have already been had with Jack Cust and I suspect the same has been done at least to some extent with Chone Figgins.
Don't the Giants need a 2B now after losing Sanchez? And a 1B (Belt)?
Hmm. I wonder if they'd be interested in Wilson, Kennedy, or Figgins.
Kennedy for Lincecum straight up? LOL
Maybe Figgins + Kennedy + 'spects for Sandoval?
Or maybe, as someone else mentioned, Figgins for Zito + cash? I guess Zito is on the DL. Not sure about the remaining years on Zito, and we easily get league average or better pitching from our system for free. But, it could then free up Vargas to trade for a bat...
My impression was that most pitchers, with the exception maybe rookies, called their own games. Is this one of those things where there are two theories about who calls the game? Or am I off base?
Zito's contract is a beast. He's owed 18.5 million this year, 19m in 2012, 20m in '13 and an option worth 18m in '14 or 7m buyout. So looking at at least 56m remaining 67m if you elect to keep him for '14. He has been worth close to 2 WAR per season in San Fran and I think he'd be worth similar if not more in Seattle.
Figgins on the other hand has been worth zero WAR (1.1 last year and a fabulous -1.1 this year) and has a contract paying him 9 million this year, 9m next, 8m in '13 and a vesting option for 9m in '14. So about 21.5m remaining for sure, 30m if the option vests.
Zito would probably be worth about 5 WAR more than Figgins going forward, at $5m per WAR we'd need San Fran to toss in 10 million+. Though given Seattle's budget constraints I'd expect GM Z would require more... or Sandoval. =)
- Ben.
And, oddly, I loved it politically, too...
One of the most frustrating things for me politically, is that the MSM sells the LDS/JW/etc contingent as wanting the fascist outcome. I oppose such groups, but the fact is that they simply want to be left alone. They don't want to control others; they don't particularly even want to talk to others...
Meanwhile, secular scientists genuinely do have elements that see (high-IQ) governmental control as good for humanity. It isn't the LDS/JW contingent that passes seat belt laws, euthanasia laws, and seeks to subject U.S. autonomy to the United Nations.
Fringe religious groups live in abject terror of a congealing Satanic world government. To them, the less government, the better.
It isn't often that we chime in on politics, and we do so gingerly, but this one myth is a critical problem. Though a scientist myself, I recognize that it is from (a small fraction of) scientists, not from traditional moralists, that we need fear the Gattaca scenario.
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A micro illustration of this exists in local baseball chat. SSI is not the blog that seeks to discourage thinking that is "incorrect."
I like to debate and air out "incorrect" ideas, not suppress them, and so do all my real-life friends.
Though am not sure what the batting average is supposed to be on that tag :- )
If it's 40%, then it's a bit like saying Pujols lost the game for us in the 9th by not getting on base with two out in the ninth ...
But yeah. I agree that if the tag's applied, we got a great shot to win that game.
And the future grok is, that if they play their cards right, they ought to be able to get some cooperation on the McLemore role.
Wow. I knew it was bad, but that is a lot worse than I thought on Zito's contract. Beast is right!
Even with Sandoval and 10 million I wouldn't make that trade b/c Sandoval is no sure thing long term (and he seems to get hurt a lot).
Maybe if they threw in their best catching prospect... (I don't know if they have anyone interesting, and they'llprobably want to hold on to him anyway so Posey doesn't have to catch forever).
GATTACA is a classic. (IMO)
Are 2 WAR from a rotation slot worth anything to the 2011-14 Mariners? :- )
Probably my worst posts ever, were my 2006-07 stuff calling for Zito the Mariner. Yowch.
Presumably for Figgins.
What a fun player Sandoval would be :- ) .... guess is that they're asking Ackley, though... maybe not...
Even so, McLemore was actually good at baseball.
At this point, I just can't see Figgins pulling a Kennedy/McLemore (eg be a useful piece on this team in a pennant race).
Willie Bloomquist would be a huge upgrade.
Takes a certain rare breed of player to accomplish what McLemore did.
IIRC they tried to swapp Lopez for him last year (when Sandoval looked terrible).