... according to KATOH, that is. I hadn't paid much attention to this Fangraphs system, but Grant Bronsdon of Lookout Landing does a nice job of 'splaining it succinctly. We'll succinct his succintity:
1. Take the best minors stats we got for predicting ML success -- AAA strikeout rate, A+ homer rate, etc.
2. Calculate everybody's major league futures off those.
It's kind of like PECOTA for minor leaguers. Well, okay. Now that I know that, I care about the fact that last July's KATOH list had six Mariners on it:
#23 in MiLB - Tyler O'Neill*
#25 - Mitch Haniger
#57 - Boog Powell
#60 - Dan Vogelbach
#64 - Ben Gamel
#98 - Max Povse
So, obviously, nobody else pays attention to KATOH either. None of them guys* are on anybody's top 100 prospects list. I smell Moneyball tactics! Actually Jerry Dipoto seems to smell market inefficiency here, because he traded for 5 of those guys just last year. I guess Jerry always admired the Green Hornet's ability to deploy a secret weapon and then take all the bows for him. :: hands tied behind back as sidekick tears through hapless enemies :: Good job Kato! Good job! Get 'em!
"Major league teams pay entirely too much attention to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little attention to how their players have performed." - Bill James
Position Scarcity. Dipoto acquired all 4 of his KATOH hotshots in LF, RF and 1B. This is 1990's-era rotisserie strategy: get Robinson Cano at second base, Kyle Seager at third base, and then throw yourself bellyflopped into the plastic ball pit of non-glove players.
TANK. Interesting that he, and Mitch Haniger for that matter, were sky-high on KATOH's list even before their late 2016 exploits.
Three to make one. Only one out of the group Haniger - Powell - Gamel needs to become a good ML regular, and they're all glam prospects in saberdweebs' eyes. Known as the anti-Smoak strategem. Also known as a Best Case Scenario. ... if I were a GM and I ever made this happen one time, three ML-ready players I was high on, competing for one slot, I'd call my career a win.
Max Povse. What did Povse do that made KATOH swoon? He gets 1.5 walks per game and 0.5 homers per game every year. The Mariner.org depth chart gives the backup starters as 6 Miranda (5-2, 3.54 in 2016), 7 Heston (12-11, 3.95 in 2015) and 8 Whalen. But those of us who kinda like sabermetrics turn eyes slideways at Povse based on this kinda thang.