In my mind, the 22 most important pitches of the minor-league season came on September 1 in Tacoma.
They were thrown by Danny Hultzen and 16 of them were strikes.
At the end of two innings, Hultzen had retired six of six batters, three of them by strikeout.
Why did it matter?
Because it was Hultzen's first time on the mound after his mechanics were re-worked. Hultzen had dealt with two injuries in the course of the season, and the team decided to make some adjustments so as to reduce the chance of it happening again.
The issue was whether Hultzen would come back with the same effectiveness that he'd shown earlier in the year.
Answer: yes!
***
Back in the old days of the Soviet Union, the party leaders would have specialists whose only job was to go back and alter old photographs so as to remove the images of those who had fallen out of favor.
It's not just that they were exiled to Siberia, they were airbrushed out of history ... as if they'd never existed.
Of course, nowadays you'd just use Photoshop (but maybe they'd still find you in the metadata).
This came to mind as I've been reading the comments over the last couple of weeks.
I love Taijuan Walker and James Paxton too, but I keep feeling that Hultzen has been dropped from the group photo prematurely.
***
Of course, it's hard to tell too much from an injury-plagued season, and the Arizona Fall League ought to help us get our bearings a bit more, but here's a sneak peak at my "three numbers":
Yes, it was only 35.2 IP due to the injuries, but Hultzen was the only one to truly dominate AAA hitters.
Would his stats have stayed that impressive if he'd made another 20 starts? No, I don't think so. And, if you go back to the table in the Paxton article, you'll see that one reason he was so efficient is a .239 BABIP, and that's not sustainable.
But, the one issue with Hultzen in 2012 was that, after his promotion to AAA, he gave up a bunch of walks.
That was not repeated. His BB/9 in AAA nosedived to 2.1.
And, when he came back with the adjusted mechanics, he walked no one.
***
We'll need to see if he can maintain his new approach and avoid future injuries. And, obviously, that's a big "if." But the first 22 pitches are a pretty good indication.
And, outside of that major question, I don't think there are any other issues with Hultzen. He's good, and his issues outside of injury are much lower than the others in the Big Four.
.........been dropped prematurely, that is. A year in injury exile does that to a young arm.
But he will soon likely swash and buckle his way back into Musketeer group, D'Artagnan, as it were.
But, to my mind, it doesn't change the equation: Swords is swords, arms is arms.
Athos didn't get traded to the Italian court when D'Artagnan came aboard, did he?
All for one, one for all!
Monsieur Moe
One thing we all forget is that this isn't the mythical NCAA football championship. Votes don't end this debate.
Hultzen will get here, and when he throws three or four lockdowns to start his career, people will remember about the Hamels / Santana template, and HE'll have his backers over Taijuan and Paxton.
One of your calling-card attributes Spec is that you go by what a prospect has done over a longer period of time, not by what he has done in the last two months. Hultzen's gotten lost in traffic, yeah. Hope you keep pressing on this one, Spec. GREAT article.
I needed to read. I hadn't looked at his stats much this year and have yet to see him pitch. Thanks for the info and another good read.
It's Hultzen's trade value that (temporarily) evaporated this year, not his talent. Most of the discussions are about Walker's trade value and Paxton's increasing value due to his major league starts, two items of note that Hultzen does not have.
Hultzen for us in 2014 can still be the best pitcher we have. He can absolutely be a starting member of the '14 rotation, and he has the potential for ROY-type results.
But his trade value is much diminished due to injury (unlike Walker) and his minor league value is not increased due to blowing away major-league linueps (unlike Paxton) so there's not much to talk about until February on Danny.
He hasn't gone anywhere on my prospect rankings. He came back, threw well, and still showed excellent stuff. And because he's been injured he'll be with us, which could be a blessing in disguise. We'll get to find out soon.
~G
Not really arguing that Hultzen's been forgotten, just trying to re-frame the debate a bit.
Looking forward to what he can do in Arizona.
With him and Maurer headed to the AFL the rotation (and trade value) possibilities may morph a bit before spring. Also going are Capps, Leone, Smith, Romero, Kivlehan and Taylor. Looks like a showcase list to me, not that I'm hoping any are traded specifically. Could be all depth options at Infield, outfield, SP and bullpen if they're still here.
I don't think he's on the list for the AFL. He's probably not eligible, as he's been on the roster for most of the year and had time last year. The rule is less than a full year as of Aug 31 unless they're a rule 5 pick.
All those except Capps. Maybe Carson Smith went in my mind as Capps, Smith. Didn't know those rules or may have realized. Thanks for the catch.