It's something I've been talking about a few years now though I hadn't done much research myself. The idea of a 4 year rebuild had long seemed a pipe dream and I've asked over and over for people to cite any team to have done it in 4. At all. It hasn't seemed realistic to me for a long time. If this crew had been given 6 or 7 first rounders the first year, maybe. But since I've learned that a good drafting team gets 2-3 players in a good Draft (not average) the math on when those drafted players would gel into the core of a team went quickly beyond 4 years before having a number high enough to seem like a decent core. 4 years sounds more reasonable for expecting players drafted to be close or up, so drafting an entire core in one Draft might give you that mythical 4 year rebuild.
We got several things in common here:
- Both teams used a strong player who was of no immediate use to re-stock.
Pittsburgh got three players from Atlanta for Nate McLouth. Two of them are still role players for the Pirates (Locke and Morton) and the third (Gorkys Hernandez) was flipped to Miami for valuable Gaby Sanchez.
KC got four players from Milwaukee for Zach Grienke (and Yuniesky Betencourt). Two of them are now key Royals (Cain and Escobar), and a third (Jake Odorizzi) was part of the deal that netted James Shields and Wade Davis.
Seattle did the same with J.J. Putz, and, although the impact has petered out somewhat, Kendrys Morales (via Jason Vargas), Franklin Gutierrez and Brendan Ryan (via Maikel Cleto) are still contributing from that deal.
- Both teams took salary dumps in mid-contract, but haven't made use of big-dollar deals.
Pittsburgh took on contracts for A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, while KC took on Ervin Santana. Burnett and Santana have worked out pretty well.
The only "big" free agent on either team is Russell Martin, if that counts.
- The core of both teams is guys taken in the 2004-2009 drafts.
The only guy contributing from a draft later than 2009 is Gerrit Cole from 2011.
The Pirates have a few more guys (like Jason Grilli) who panned out from other means, but both teams really "are what they are" because of the guys they picked high in the draft in those years (McCutchen, Walker, Alvarez for Pittsburgh; Gordon, Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas for KC).
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Now the big question:
Can Seattle break the mold?
Mmmmmmmayyyyyyyybe.
Using this template, the Mariners would be on track for at least two or three more mediocre seasons before their 2009-2013 draft "core" would be on track to "gel" into a contender.
But!
- Justin Smoak was from the top of the 2008 draft, so, if you count him and his .338 wOBA as part of the "core," then we can start counting from 2008. Why not?
- The Pirates and Royals pretty much got one impact player per draft. Seattle 2009: Ackley, Franklin and Seager. Seattle 2010: Walker, Paxton and Pryor. Seattle 2011: Hultzen, Miller and Capps.
- Seattle may be more willing and able to add the big MLB free agent (though the Burnett and Santana acquisitions sort of take the place of free agent signings).
If, in fact, Seattle can beat the timetable, I think the second factor will be key.
The draft can pretty much be divided into "Elite" (top half to two-thirds of the first round), "Mid Major" (from there through about Round 4 or 5) and "Grab Bag" (everybody else).
The Jack and Mac draft crew has dominated the "Mid Major" category. It's clear from looking at Pittsburgh and KC that, except for a few "Grab Bag" players who panned out (every team has a few of those), they built through the draft almost entirely* by getting the "Elite" players in the first half of the first round.
Seattle's done that, too (Ackley, Hultzen, Zunino ... D.J. Peterson). We don't know when those guys will "gel," but all of them appear likely to eventually gel and not be busts.
But they've also added multiple impact players from farther down. Kyle Seager is already the key to the offense (leads the team with .353 wOBA). Taijuan Walker and Brad Miller may be two of the most important players going forward. Pryor, Capps and Carson Smith could anchor the bullpen.
So what happens if you have a young "core" built through the draft, but it's a much bigger "core" than you usually see?
I'm not sure we know yet, but maybe we'll need to research those 1970s Dodgers a bit more.
* Main exception being Wil Myers -- picked by KC in the 3rd round -- who was the key to acquiring Shields.
Comments
Wonder if the Orioles would fit the profile.
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Matt Wieters
Machado
* Chris Davis?
While they didn't draft all the talent themselves, they do seem to have a lineup chock full of home grown - or pre-breakout acquired - talent with nominally priced fill-ins elsewhere.
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In the case of Seattle, I think a stronger case for a "quicker than normal" ... quickening? ... makes some sense.
It's not simply the number of mid-rounders ... but as has been noted elsewhere, Seattle in 2011 had a nearly unique lineup of youth filling out nearly the entire roster. In the case of the Pirates and Royals (and Orioles, too ... if one wants to include them) ... the MLB arrival schedule was spread out. It's not JUST when the players were drafted - but also how quickly they began arriving in the Majors.
McCutheon sticks in 2009 ... then Walker and Alvarez and Tabata in 2010 ... McHenry in 2011 ... and Starling for just a quarter of 2012.
For KC, Gordon and Butler both arrived in 2007 ... but they really didn't add anyone else that stuck (in their every day lineup until 2010+).
It takes a while for most kids to settle ... even the stars ... but, once you get the train going, I think the speed at becoming competitive is related to how quickly you follow up the initial kids with reinforcements. The winning starts when you hit "critical mass", where the early kids are starting to peak and the middle kids have at least gotten through their growing pains.
The MLB time for Smoak, Ackley, Seager, Saunders is "enough". The adjustment time for the second wave, Zunino, Miller, Franklin ... and now Almonte is the real question.--- maybe the magic equation is something like "6 productive kids *with experience*" -- The Ms are realistically at 4 ... but does it take ALL of 2014 AND 2015 to get Miller, Franklin, Zunino, Almonte into the "with experience" column?
My own belief was that the pitching would be further along in terms of MLB innings this year and 2014 would have real possibilities. At this point, I think 2015 is more likely a TRUE competitive team - but 2014 certainly is looking like a "legit dark horse" season ... meaning, it'll take a little more luck than skill ... but not so much as to not be possible.
Thanks for the writeup. I'd be even more discouraged about the M's as a result of this, except that we have to remember Seattle is the #12 market. Pittsburgh is #23 (60% of Seattle), and KC is #31 (50% of Seattle). Baltimore is #27. Plus when you factor in the wealth and corporate base of Seattle area it is an even bigger difference. There is simply no reason that the M's should be bound to follow these teams' playbooks...we should be able to accelerate the process considerably. That said, drafting/IFA'ing your young core seems to be a prerequisite for success. Hopefully we will gel on that front soon.
Remember that we got both Nick Franklin and Steve Baron for losing Ibanez as a FA, and we still benefit from having Raul back. However, we lost several of his good years. It appears we're playing for the pick again, but I expect that we'll blow it by winning too many at the end.
Bedard trade was 2008 before the season. If that was the beginning of the rebuild the 4th year would have been '11. Matusz was the #4 pick in that 08 Draft and 4 years later they took Bundy #4. That alone looks pretty bad for their case, but the pick was based on 3rd year performance. Weiters and Arrieta(though he's not core and since traded) were drafted in 2007, Markakis 2003 Jim Johnson 2001 and that's about all they drafted that contributed in 2011-today. Trades and free agents are most of their core, the way it looks to me. I may have missed some relief pitchers. 5 guys, but only 2 after the bedard trade, one only by months. Really, 14 years between playoff appearances yet they didn't lose 100 during that stretch. 90+ 9 times if that says anything about their drafting...
They never traded Roberts and I don't think they ever went full rebuild, even if the team looked like it for awhile. That's my perspective on what I recall and researched to respond. Looking at the build for a couple hours it seems they pulled off a reload without rebuilding.
"Seattle may be more willing and able to add the big MLB free agent (though the Burnett and Santana acquisitions sort of take the place of free agent signings)."
Great series of articles Spec! I don't have much to add but wanted to comment on this quote above. The M's have already made this type of acquisition, only better. Iwakuma. Thank goodness he worked out for us. It took so much pressure off building a pennant winning rotation. Now we don't have to keep our fingers and toes crossed hoping every pitching prospect we have comes through. Don't have to sweat a stretch of Paxton wildness or Hultzen getting dinged up or Maurer implosion. We have several great options for 3-4-5. If we are still short a pitcher after 2014, hey go out and spend a little of that ROOT cash.
First and foremost are those bats. We have got to get more solid hitters in here somehow, someway. It will be interesting to see what kind of names become available via trade as the winter evolves. Maybe Jack and Co. have their eye on a blocked OF prospect on a team in dire need of young pitching or middle infield help.
If we are unable to spend all of our money on FA hitters or take on a salary dump hitter then let's bolster that bullpen. Have not investigated FA relief class but signing / trading for some bullpen arms along the lines of Sasaki, Rhodes, Hasegawa would be welcomed with open arms by me. Just as Iwakuma solidified the rotation without freezing youngsters out a quality reliable veteran arm or two in the pen gives us the luxury of rotating young arms through and keeping the best performers. What we have going now with a slew of unproven or mediocre bullpen performances just isn't cutting it. Similar to, but not quite as stinky as the offensive performance we've become accustomed to. Not saying go blow $40M on a closer, but nab a swingman like Joaquin Benoit or maybe a Boone Logan as your 4th guy in the pen. Don't have to commit huge years and dollars to make a noticable improvement in the win column. Sure, it's fun to poach guys off the scrap heap but there is still room for a couple top quality vets. Don't cut corners in the pen, since the savings aren't being exploited to bolster the club in other areas.
I am completely thinking the same way on the bullpen. We may have been spoiled by Gillicks multiple relief aces but I don't think there is no potential for that there now. Unfortunately it's mostly just potential going into the offseason. Adding 1 would be nice right now, failing that 1 or 2 along the lines of Logan/Benoit is a minimum necessity the way I see it.
If they're able to add a few above average to star players I think that could push up the timetable to next year. Since it's even better drafting and cash flow that would allow that to happen, the difference is easy to point to. Still, that's the 6th year. If they just keep drafting and waiting I think within 8 is doable, but not likely under the same GM because so many seem to think rebuilds take 4-5 years. It's already been too long in their eyes.
If Smoak is made available anyone think there'd be much interest? Any GM still overvalue OBP? My thinking is if the best 1b/dh combo seemed to be one of or a platoon from Morales/Beltran/Ibanez/Montero etc. and Abreu. Is Abreu preferable to Smoak?
With the Ms infield, there is a whole lot to be said for Smoak at 1B if he can just put up reasonable numbers. If he can do the .280/.380/.460/.840 I keep postulating for him, he'll be an asset. Franklin and Miller have strong arms, but Miller is not always accurate, and even Seager sometimes doesn't always throw right on the mark. If you remember, Morales wasn't always the most flexible and stretchy out there. I confess to liking Smoak more than others here, but I think an Olerud that catches everything in the area helps the whole infield and takes pressure off the others.
As to Abreu, he apparently is also in Morales' class - reasonably sure-handed, but not much range or agility.
That said, getting a Luke Gregerson or similar guy about 30 with some success, but not overvalued, would be nice.
And showing legitimate progress. I appreciate what you're saying about an Olerud at first though it's difficult to isolate the impact. His LD% this year is tied at #83 in the game with Choo and Starlin Marte but he still isn't putting a fair number of balls in the gaps. I'd like to see him work on hitting gaps and recognizing the change and slider more if not being able to do more with them. It's not difficult to stick with him with the improvements he's already shown. If he is what he's showing now that's ok, if he can still improve we'd likely regret moving on.
All of that applies to Ackley too except he's not had enough PA to qualify (21% LD would slot in just behind Smoak 21.3%) and the non slider pitch he sees often and does poorly with is curve instead of change. Then there's Saunders, low on PA but his 22.8% would be tied for #48, seeing sliders curve and change 10+%. Pitch recognition and hitting gaps with those lines drives they're already hitting often, Edgar mini camp? There's a dream that doesn't seem to ever happen. Not that Edgar is even the most qualified but I can't think of a hitter to have shown those qualifications better.
These 3 guys focusing on putting more LD in the gaps/corners could at the least extend the lineup. If MOTO is taken care of by acquisitions and you have Seager (21.7 LD, already using gaps/corners) and the Smoak, Ackley Saunders trio with improved xbh production in aggregate batting 5-8? Assuming Miller (21%) and Franklin (22.9%) stay at the top, but Ackley or Saunders could switch into the top 1 or 2 and be about the same overall complete lineup with Zunino (18.7%) batting 9th.