A different case against Walker-for-Price: Jimenez may be just as good
Do you believe in mulligans? ... Yes!

 

David Price is a very good pitcher, but it appears the "price" (ugh) of obtaining him from Tampa is Taijuan Walker. 

No need to recapitulate the various arguments made by Doc and others against such a move.

Instead, I want to propose a different tack.

For the cost of a second-round draft pick and a free-agent contract, Ubaldo Jimenez may be every bit as good.

And the gap does not appear to be so great it ought to take giving up Taijuan Walker to fill it.

 

***

 

What you have to believe is:

-- Jimenez struggled with a move to Cleveland

-- He struggled with his mechanics

-- He struggled with losing his ability to "blow by" hitters at 96 mph at will

And then:

-- He figured it all out and finished 2013 as a top-flight starter again

If you believe in that "mulligan" for Jimenez, then he actually is quite comparable with Price.

 

***

 

First off, it is not at all unusual for big-armed starters to come into the majors blasting 96 mph fireballs, before "settling in" around 92-94.  It happened to Felix and Clemens and almost everyone.

So it's not a giant red flag that Jimenez is now in that range fastball-wise.  It's very difficult to maintain extreme high velocity for an entire career.  Even Justin Verlander is down to 94 from his 96 peak.

And there is a transition for pitchers who need to learn that the blow-by approach won't always work.  You may recall Felix in the 2007-09 period not being as dominant as we expected.

In Jimenez' case, it appears that the transition overlapped with a trade to Cleveland in midseason 2011, which, at the time, was in a playoff chase.  He didn't live up to expectations by the lake, and the team faded down the stretch.

All of which led into a distastrous 2012 in which Jimenez was a mess.  Walks up.  Strikeouts down.  Hit hard.  Wild pitches.  There's just nothing good to say.

And 2013 did not really start out any better.  Two 7-earned-run outings in his first three starts!

But then ...

 

***

 

Around mid-June Jimenez seemed to finally figure it out.  Except for one 4-earned-run outing, he never gave up more than three the rest of the way.

Except for his velocity, everything else rebounded to his glory-day levels, including his swing-and-miss percentage.  And his strikeout rate was, in fact, higher than ever.

Obviously, Jimenez had the "feel" for pitching again, and his fastball-slider combination was fooling hitters again.

And let's take a look at what's on the table:

 

  HR% XBH% BB% K%
Jimenez "struggle period" 3.0 8.8 11.2 19.7
Jimenez excluding "struggle period" 1.5 6.3 10.3 22.0
Jimenez after "struggle period" 1.4 6.0 9.8 25.6
David Price 2.2 6.7 7.2 22.1

 

 

If you give Jimenez a mulligan for that difficult period in Cleveland, he is actually quite comparable to Price.  If you look only at his glory-days and rebound (the "excluding struggle period" line), you'll see that his strikeout rate is even with Price, and his ability to limit hard-hit balls is actually better.  This despite Jimenez spending much of that time in Colorado.

Both Price and Jimenez have swing-and-miss rates around 8-9%, which is very good, but not elite (Yu Darvish led at 12.7% in 2013 and Felix was at 10.7%).

The primary difference is walks.  Jimenez will walk more guys than Price.  No question about that.  But since, during his "good periods" he's been very successful at preventing home runs (1.5% HR/BF works out to about 0.6 HR/9 IP if you're used to seeing it that way), his walk rate hasn't hurt him that much.

In his best year in Colorado, he gave up only 10 HR for 1.1% (HR/BF) or 0.4 (HR/9).  Was some good fortune (HR/FB) built into that?  Yes, but outside his "struggle period" his HR/FB has been comparable to Price's.

Think that maybe it would get better in Seattle? 

 

***

 

So it comes down to this.  To paraphrase Al Michaels:  Do you believe in mulligans?  Yes!

Save Taijuan.  Sign Jimenez.

 

Comments

4

When Zduriencik was talking about a guy to slot between our Cy and our #3 Cy finisher the only names that made clear sense to me were Price and Lee because of handedness. Jiminez, Colon and others make sense as an addition to the rotation, not as being slotted ahead of Iwakuma. No right hander available does. It seems clear to me that Zduriencik had to be talking about a star lefty.
I've been on board not trading Paxton or Walker as long as almost anyone and if that's really what it takes to get anyone I'm not interested in that player. There really aren't many players at all that I'd even consider because if one has trouble in any way you'll miss the other more. That's also why I like the "3 bats" insight from Zduriencik because there's always the possibility one just doesn't work out.
I'm not saying I don't like Jiminez. I'm saying that he's not the ideal that the front office is looking for but should be among the top of the fallback options. If you can't get that guy you'd slot between Felix and Iwakuma, got to get a guy you'd slot right behind them. I wouldn't put Jiminez or Colon ahead of Iwakuma, anyway.

5

Second half, he had 100K against 27BB, threw the stuffing out of the ball.
The only worry, is those pitchers who try to parlay one 2nd Half into a 7-year deal, as though they'd been doing it for five years...
But, yeah, Jimenez is showing every SIGN of a pitcher who very easily could spend the next several years as Max Scherzer or Anibal Sanchez...
.............
David Price has also been leaping plateaus.  He spent the last several months of 2013 spinning an 8:1 control ratio (!!) and that actually reflects the repeatability of his game now.
Price has always been an ace, but it looks like he's about to spend the next five years as Cliff Lee plus three feet on the fastball.
..............
I'll take [Jimenez / Garza / Tanaka and Taijuan] over [Price and Joe Saunders II], that's for sure.
Excellent read mate!

6

First to ACES - "Hey Seth (Sam), can you tell me what John Buck would want for one year and an option?" -- "O.K., we can do that, send the papers over."
Then to Andrew Friedman - "Hey, Andrew, I really want to see what we can do for David Price, but I just can't give you Walker. But I am willing to let you have Nick Franklin, and your choice of Pike or Diaz. I know your people have told you they're both a year or so away from the top of the prospect lists, but that they're headed there. Diaz has the same things we saw in Walker - he just needs to continue to develop. What's that - how about both? ... " "....Yeah, we'll do that - I'll send the paperwork over." "What, that's not enough, you want a non-40 strong bullpen arm, too? Well, you want Moran or Carson Smith?" " O.K. we'll do that - but anything more is 5 for 2 or 6 for 3." "O.K., I get Price for Franklin, Pike, Diaz and Smith. Send the papers over, and I'll send ours." "And, by the way, tell David we want to talk extension soonest and to have his agent call me at his earliest. Thanks!"
Then to Ned Colletti - "Hey Ned if I take Kemp, will you send $28Mil payable over his last 4 years and make it an even $100Mil for us? I'm prepared to give you Ackley, Romero, and either Capps or Pryor if you'll do that." "What, you want a SS instead of Romero? - well, I've already traded Franklin, you'll hear about that soon enough - and I'm not prepared to trade Miller - he's already a team leader. But my guy Taylor really tore it up in the fall league after doing well all year. I know he'll have to have some AAA time, but he's really smart, and it won't take long." "You'll do that? Ackley, Taylor, and Capps for Kemp and $28Mil payable in 4 / $7Mil pieces 2016-2019? O.K., paperwork on its way."
Subsequently, Balfour, Axford, Aardsma, and O'Flaherty all agree to contracts with ~$17Mil due total in 2014 and ~$12Mil in 2015 with ~$10Mil in options/incentives.
David Price agrees to a 5-year extension paying $15M - $18M - 3x$20M plus bonus and incentives and a 6th year option with buyout => $100M or $20M AAV.
Total tab - just over $60M in 2014.
And so Santa Claus completes his trip to the Mariners.

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